The Mississippi river and the prediction we got half right
We picked winners well in 2026, but underestimated the size of the Democratic gains. In Mississippi, the polls we discounted came closest to a race we could barely see.
Our final forecast frozen at midnight Eastern, 3 November
Senate: Democrats 78%, Republicans 22%
House: Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%
Each party’s chance of control across our simulations. On the map, every state’s race is coloured by its favourite’s chance: white is a toss-up, deeper is likelier.
Final forecast · 35 races
Where we think it stands
Our final forecast has Democrats favoured in both chambers: 95% to win the House and 78% to win the Senate. In the House our median outcome is 238 Democratic seats to 197 Republican, with eight in ten simulations between 222 and 258; a majority is 218. That rests on a national environment of D+7.1, which hardly moved over the last two weeks (D+7.4 on 19 October). The Senate did move. Democrats were at 63% on 19 October and 60% on 27 October, then rose to 78% as the final week’s state polls came in. Polls released in the last seven days account for about 28 points of that chance.
The Senate is still the chamber that could go either way. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. Our median is 53, but Republicans keep control in about one simulation in five. The majority runs through close races: Iowa and Alaska are within a point; Ohio, Texas and Kansas lean Democratic at 67% to 75%; South Carolina leans Republican at 64%; and in Nebraska the independent challenger is at 25%. Polling errors in races like these tend to move together. A shared miss of two or three points toward Republicans would give them the Senate. The same miss toward Democrats would put their majority in the mid-50s. Both are inside the range we forecast.
Chamber control
Where the race stands
Nov 2, 2026, 10:25 PM ESTDemocrats are favoured to control the House, 95% to 5% for Republicans; Democrats are favoured to control the Senate, 78% to 22% for Republicans.
Taken together, the single likeliest outcome is Democratic majorities in both chambers, at 77%. Congress ending up divided between the two parties is a 18% proposition.
Central estimates: 239 of 435 House seats for Democrats, a net gain of 25 on the 214 they hold now; 52 of 100 Senate seats for Democrats, a net gain of 5 on the 47 they hold now.
The national environment sits at Democrats +7.1 points on the House popular vote. It has moved 0.6 points toward Democrats over the past month.
Votes and seats are not the same thing: a party can win more votes nationally and still lose the chamber. Here Democrats lead the national vote in >99% of simulations but win the House in 95% — a 5-point gap that comes from how districts are drawn, not from any thumb on the scale. The national vote itself runs from D+5.0 to D+12.2 across the middle 80%.
Presidential approval has not been polled since 6 October, 27 days ago, so the model holds it flat rather than projecting it forward. 80% of simulations put the House between 222 and 258 Democratic seats, which is the honest width of this forecast 1 days out.
Written from this run’s output, not by hand — it changes when the model does.
Key races to watch
Every contest the model currently projects inside the margin below, closest first. Selected on the projected margin rather than the odds: a narrow lead early and a narrow lead late are the same margin and very different probabilities, and the question here is how close the candidates are.
Senate
within 5 pointsIA-SENTurek v HinsonD +0.2Tilt D31 pollsAK-SENPeltola v SullivanD +0.4Tilt D17 pollsSC-SENAndrews v GrahamR +1.9Tilt R14 pollsOH-SENBrown v HustedD +2.2Lean D35 pollsTX-SENTalarico v PaxtonD +2.8Lean D61 pollsNE-SENOsborn v RickettsR +3.4Lean R18 pollsKS-SENHamilton v MarshallD +3.4Lean D19 pollsME-SENJackson v CollinsD +4.1Lean D33 pollsMI-SENEl-Sayed v RogersD +4.9Lean D57 polls
House
within 2 points · closest 20 of 21VA-01Taylor v WittmanD +0.1Tilt D6 pollsWI-01Berman v SteilD +0.1Tilt D4 pollsKY-06Dembo v AlvaradoD +0.3Tilt D8 pollsPA-10Stelson v PerryR +0.4Tilt R7 pollsMI-04McCann v HuizengaD +0.5Tilt D4 pollsWA-03Perez v BraunD +0.6Tilt D5 pollsFL-07Dalton v ElijahR +0.6Tilt R1 pollOH-10Knickerbocker v TurnerD +0.7Tilt D3 pollsTX-35Garcia v CruzR +0.9Tilt R4 pollsMT-01Forstag v FlintD +0.9Tilt D8 pollsOH-09Kaptur v MerrinD +1.1Tilt D2 pollsMN-01Johnson v FinstadR +1.2Tilt R6 pollsAZ-02Nez v CraneR +1.4Tilt R3 pollsSC-01Lacore v HoneycuttR +1.6Tilt R5 pollsPA-08Cognetti v BresnahanD +1.6Tilt D5 pollsAL-02Figures v MarquesR +1.7Tilt R4 pollsOH-15Leonard v CareyR +1.7Tilt R4 pollsIA-02James v MitchellD +1.7Tilt D3 pollsWI-03Cooke v OrdenD +1.7Tilt D6 pollsCO-05Killin v CrankR +1.8Tilt R4 polls
The margin is this site’s projection, not a single poll: it blends the polling with the district’s fundamentals, so a race marked no polls is one where no public survey has been published and the estimate rests on the fundamentals alone. Those are worth watching precisely because there is least to go on.
Paths to control
Every seat still genuinely in play, and how often each party takes it across the simulated elections. Pick a seat to assume it is won and watch the rest of the map move: the races are not independent, so a party taking a seat it was not expected to take is evidence about the whole year rather than about that seat alone. These are counted across the simulations, not multiplied together — multiplying would treat each race as its own sealed contest and understate how much they rise and fall as one.
Senate
NHD 95IDR 96MTR 100MAD 100RID 100ORD 100WYR 100SDR 99ILD 99NJD 100COD 100KYR 99WVR 100VAD 100DED 100NMD 100ARR 99TNR 100NCD 98OKR 100LAR 89MSR 96ALR 95GAD 97FLR 93
78% Democrats hold the Senate
22% Republicans hold it
Click a state to assume it goes Democratic, again for Republican, again to release it. Everything else is recounted over only the elections that agree with you.
Each bar runs from the middle toward whichever party is ahead, as far as that party’s chance of taking the seat. The tick marks where it sat before you assumed anything.
House
Democrats
95% to controlHow often Democrats take each seat across all 10 seats genuinely in play. Pick one to see the rest of the map in the elections where it goes that way.
A seat counts as in play when neither party takes it in nearly every simulation. Both parties are computed by the same method from the same draws, and the tick on each bar marks where that seat sits before any assumption is made.
What moved the forecast
304 new polls since Oct 26Re-running the model without them, the polls published since Oct 26 are worth D +6.8 on House control, D +28.4 on the Senate and D +1.2 on the national environment.
RaceHouseSenatePolls behind it
Generic ballotD +5.4D +5.8IpsosD+8Nov 2 · n=1,212John Zogby StrategiesD+6Nov 2 · n=1,001+15 more
MI-SEN—D +2.0John Zogby StrategiesD+2Nov 2 · n=1,001The New York TimesD+11Nov 1 · n=1,011+14 more
TX-SEN—D +1.5Research Co.D+3Nov 2 · n=450The New York TimesD+7Nov 1 · n=1,215+14 more
Each figure is the model re-run with that race’s new polls held out, so it is measured rather than inferred. Contributions do not sum to the total, because polls in the same race interact. It says what changed, not why.
In the coverage this week
Distribution of outcomes
200,000 simulationsHouse seatsmedian 238D/197R · 80% D 222–258 · R 177–213
Democrats win control · 218+ seats · 94%Republicans win control · 218+ seats · 6%
Senate seatsmedian 53D/47R · 80% D 49–56 · R 44–51
Democrats win control · 51+ seats · 78%Republicans win control · 50+ seats · 22%
How Congress could come out
joint outcomesDemocratic House and Senate77%
Democratic House, Republican Senate18%
Republican House and Senate5%
Republican House, Democratic Senate1%
Counted across 200,000 simulations, so the correlation between the two chambers is already in these figures. Multiplying the House and Senate probabilities together would give a different — and wrong — answer. Congress ends up divided in 18% of them.
The national environment
Generic congressional ballotnow D+6.0
Two-party margin, adjusted for house effects, likely-voter population and partisan sponsorship, then corrected for the question’s measured historical gap against the actual national vote. Plotted so that above the line favours Democrats and below favours Republicans. This is the single most important input to a midterm forecast.
Approval and favorabilitynet rating
−15.940% approve · 56% disapprove
9 polls from 6 pollsters in the active window, weighted the same way the forecast weights everything else. Different questions draw different pollsters, so gaps between two measures here are partly composition rather than opinion. Last polled Oct 6 — 27 days ago. The line ends where the polling does rather than running flat to today, so a quiet feed reads as quiet rather than as steady opinion.
Approve minus disapprove, or favorable minus unfavorable. Presidential job approval is the one that feeds the model: together with the economy it sets the fundamentals prior, which carries the forecast where polling is thin and never fully drops out. The others are shown for context and change nothing in the forecast.
Forecast over time
May 25 – Nov 2Housechance of control
Axis cropped to 66–100% to show the movement. The 50% mark that decides control sits below this range, so the lead has not changed hands over this period.
Senatechance of control
Points before 2026-08-23 are reconstructed: the model was re-run at each past date using only polls published by then. Fundamentals and the candidate list are current rather than historical, so treat the early span as the polling story, not as a forecast published at the time. Everything from that date on was recorded live.
Where the majority turns
Tipping-point races
How often each district is the seat that delivers the 218th — a better measure of which races matter than closeness alone.
Governors to watch
The same rule as the watchlist above, applied to the governorships.
within 5 points
NV-GOVFord v LombardoR +0.1Tilt R9 pollsVT-GOVJanoo v ScottD +0.3Tilt D7 pollsGA-GOVBottoms v JacksonD +0.5Tilt D16 pollsKS-GOVHolscher v MastersonR +0.6Tilt R14 pollsOR-GOVKotek v DrazanD +1.6Tilt D8 pollsTX-GOVHinojosa v AbbottR +2.5Lean R54 pollsOH-GOVActon v RamaswamyD +3.7Lean D28 pollsFL-GOVJolly v DonaldsR +4.2Lean R32 pollsWI-GOVCrowley v TiffanyD +4.6Lean D13 pollsAK-GOVKreiss-Tomkins v WilsonD +4.9Lean D9 polls
Every race
506 contests506 races
| Democrat | Republican | Rating | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | REP | Shannon Taylor | Rob Wittman | D 50% | D+0.1 | R+5.1 | 6 | 1.3% | Tilt D |
| WI-01 | REP | Mitchell Berman | Bryan Steil | D 50% | D+0.1 | R+3.6 | 4 | 1.3% | Tilt D |
| NV-GOV | REP | Aaron Ford | Joe Lombardo | R 51% | R+0.1 | R+1.4 | 9 | — | Tilt R |
| IA-SEN | REP | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | D 52% | D+0.2 | R+11.8 | 31 | — | Tilt D |
| KY-06 | REP | Zach Dembo | Ralph Alvarado | D 52% | D+0.3 | R+13.9 | 8 | 1.3% | Tilt D |
| VT-GOV | REP | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | D 52% | D+0.3 | D+34.1 | 7 | — | Tilt D |
| AK-SEN | REP | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | D 53% | D+0.4 | R+12.7 | 17 | — | Tilt DRCV |
| PA-10 | REP | Janelle Stelson | Scott Perry | R 53% | R+0.4 | R+4.7 | 7 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| GA-GOV | REP | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | D 53% | D+0.5 | R+1.3 | 16 | — | Tilt D |
| MI-04 | REP | Sean McCann | Bill Huizenga | D 54% | D+0.5 | R+4.9 | 4 | 1.4% | Tilt D |
| FL-07 | REP | Bale Dalton | Ryan Elijah | R 54% | R+0.6 | R+10.5 | 1 | 1.1% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| KS-GOV | DEM | Cindy Holscher | Ty Masterson | R 55% | R+0.6 | R+15.7 | 14 | — | Tilt R |
| WA-03 | DEM | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | John Braun | D 55% | D+0.6 | R+3.3 | 5 | 1.4% | Tilt D |
| OH-10 | REP | Kristina Knickerbocker | Mike Turner | D 56% | D+0.7 | R+7.0 | 3 | 1.4% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| TX-35 | REP | Johnny Garcia | Carlos De La Cruz | R 57% | R+0.9 | R+8.1 | 4 | 0.9% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| MT-01 | REP | Sam Forstag | Aaron Flint | D 57% | D+0.9 | R+10.4 | 8 | 1.6% | Tilt D |
| OH-09 | DEM | Marcy Kaptur | Derek Merrin | D 58% | D+1.1 | R+9.4 | 2 | 1.7% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| MN-01 | REP | Jake Johnson | Brad Finstad | R 59% | R+1.2 | R+11.2 | 6 | 0.9% | Tilt R |
| AZ-02 | REP | Jonathan Nez | Eli Crane | R 60% | R+1.4 | R+13.0 | 3 | 0.8% | Tilt R |
| SC-01 | REP | Nancy Lacore | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | R 61% | R+1.6 | R+11.8 | 5 | 0.8% | Tilt R |
| OR-GOV | DEM | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | D 62% | D+1.6 | D+15.7 | 8 | — | Tilt D |
| PA-08 | DEM | Paige Cognetti | Rob Bresnahan | D 62% | D+1.6 | R+6.8 | 5 | 1.8% | Tilt D |
| IA-02 | REP | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | D 63% | D+1.7 | R+8.4 | 3 | 1.8% | Tilt D |
| OH-15 | REP | Don Leonard | Mike Carey | R 63% | R+1.7 | R+9.1 | 4 | 0.6% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| AL-02 | DEM | Shomari Figures | Rhett Marques | R 63% | R+1.7 | R+12.7 | 4 | 0.7% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| WI-03 | REP | Rebecca Cooke | Derrick Van Orden | D 63% | D+1.7 | R+6.5 | 6 | 1.9% | Tilt D |
| CO-05 | REP | Jessica Killin | Jeff Crank | R 64% | R+1.8 | R+9.3 | 4 | 0.7% | Tilt R |
| MO-02 | REP | Fred Wellman | Ann Wagner | R 64% | R+1.8 | R+11.2 | 4 | 0.7% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| SC-SEN | REP | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | R 65% | R+1.9 | R+16.2 | 14 | — | Tilt R |
| ME-02 | DEM | Matthew Dunlap | Paul LePage | R 65% | R+2.0 | R+8.5 | 8 | 0.7% | Lean RRCV |
| OH-SEN | REP | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D 67% | D+2.2 | R+10.2 | 35 | — | Lean D |
| TX-GOV | REP | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | R 69% | R+2.5 | R+11.5 | 54 | — | Lean R |
| TX-23 | REP | Katy Padilla Stout | Brandon Herrera | R 70% | R+2.7 | R+12.7 | 3 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MI-10 | REP | Christina Hines | Michael Bouchard Jr. | D 70% | D+3.0 | R+4.9 | 2 | 2.0% | Lean D |
| TX-SEN | REP | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | D 70% | D+2.8 | R+11.5 | 61 | — | Lean D |
| FL-22 | REP | Pia Dandiya | Casey Askar | D 71% | D+3.0 | R+6.9 | 2 | 2.2% | Lean Dredrawn |
| FL-09 | DEM | Darren Soto | Dan Green | R 73% | R+3.4 | R+14.8 | 2 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| PA-07 | REP | Bob Brooks | Ryan Mackenzie | D 74% | D+3.2 | R+1.9 | 4 | 2.4% | Lean D |
| KS-SEN | REP | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | D 75% | D+3.4 | R+15.7 | 19 | — | Lean D |
| PA-01 | REP | Robert Harvie | Brian Fitzpatrick | D 75% | D+3.3 | D+1.8 | 7 | 2.4% | Lean D |
| OH-GOV | REP | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | D 76% | D+3.7 | R+10.2 | 28 | — | Lean D |
| NY-21 | REP | Blake Gendebien | Anthony Constantino | R 77% | R+4.0 | R+19.2 | 8 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| MO-05 | DEM | Emanuel Cleaver | Rick Brattin | R 77% | R+5.1 | R+17.3 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NJ-07 | REP | Rebecca Bennett | Tom Kean Jr. | D 78% | D+4.0 | R+0.2 | 2 | 2.4% | Lean D |
| FL-16 | REP | Kelly Kirschner | Sydney Gruters | R 78% | R+5.4 | R+11.4 | 2 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| AZ-06 | REP | JoAnna Mendoza | Juan Ciscomani | D 78% | D+3.9 | R+0.2 | 4 | 2.5% | Lean D |
| FL-14 | DEM | Kathy Castor | Mike Beltran | D 78% | D+4.4 | R+8.3 | 1 | 2.3% | Lean Dredrawn |
| OH-07 | REP | Brian Poindexter | Max Miller | D 79% | D+4.2 | R+10.4 | 4 | 2.5% | Lean Dredrawn |
| FL-GOV | REP | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | R 79% | R+4.2 | R+10.4 | 32 | — | Lean R |
| NY-01 | REP | Christopher Gallant | Nick LaLota | R 79% | R+5.6 | R+7.8 | 2 | 0.4% | Lean R |
| ME-SEN | REP | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | D 79% | D+4.1 | D+8.0 | 33 | — | Lean DRCV |
| IA-03 | REP | Sarah Trone Garriott | Zach Nunn | D 80% | D+4.9 | R+3.1 | 1 | 2.1% | Lean D |
| NV-02 | REP | Teresa Benitez-Thompson | David Flippo | R 80% | R+4.6 | R+13.2 | 3 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| FL-25 | DEM | Jared Moskowitz | Scott Singer | D 80% | D+4.5 | R+5.3 | 3 | 2.4% | Lean Dredrawn |
| CO-08 | REP | Manny Rutinel | Gabe Evans | D 80% | D+4.6 | D+0.1 | 1 | 2.3% | Lean D |
| FL-27 | REP | Eliott Rodriguez | Maria Salazar | R 80% | R+4.3 | R+10.8 | 3 | 0.2% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-13 | REP | Leela Gray | Anna Paulina Luna | R 80% | R+4.3 | R+11.7 | 6 | 0.2% | Lean Rredrawn |
| IA-01 | REP | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | D 81% | D+5.2 | R+6.8 | 3 | 2.0% | Lean D |
| WI-GOV | DEM | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | D 81% | D+4.6 | R+0.2 | 13 | — | Lean D |
| WA-05 | REP | Carmela Conroy | Michael Baumgartner | R 81% | R+4.8 | R+10.6 | 1 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| AK-GOV | REP | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | Bernadette Wilson | D 82% | D+4.9 | R+12.7 | 9 | — | Lean DRCV |
| TX-34 | DEM | Vicente Gonzalez | Eric Flores | D 82% | D+4.6 | R+6.6 | 5 | 2.6% | Lean Dredrawn |
| NC-09 | REP | Richard Ojeda | Richard Hudson | R 82% | R+5.2 | R+15.2 | 2 | 0.2% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NC-11 | REP | Jamie Ager | Jennifer Balkcom | D 82% | D+5.5 | R+9.7 | 1 | 2.0% | Lean Dredrawn |
| VA-02 | REP | Elaine Luria | Jen Kiggans | D 82% | D+5.0 | D+0.7 | 2 | 2.4% | Lean D |
| MI-SEN | DEM | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | D 82% | D+4.9 | Even | 57 | — | Lean D |
| TX-15 | REP | Bobby Pulido | Monica De La Cruz | D 83% | D+5.0 | R+13.8 | 8 | 2.4% | Lean Dredrawn |
| GA-07 | REP | Tony Kozycki | Rich McCormick | R 83% | R+5.2 | R+21.2 | 2 | 0.2% | Lean R |
| CO-03 | REP | Dwayne Romero | Jeffrey Hurd | R 83% | R+4.8 | R+9.3 | 2 | 0.2% | Lean R |
| NC-03 | REP | Raymond Smith | Greg Murphy | R 84% | R+6.5 | R+12.1 | 1 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NC-13 | REP | Paul Barringer | Brad Knott | R 84% | R+6.7 | R+16.6 | 0 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| AL-GOV | REP | Doug Jones | Tommy Tuberville | R 84% | R+5.6 | R+29.3 | 6 | — | Lean R |
| MI-07 | REP | William Lawrence | Tom Barrett | D 85% | D+5.1 | R+0.4 | 3 | 2.6% | Lean D |
| VA-05 | REP | Thomas Perriello | John McGuire | R 85% | R+5.1 | R+11.1 | 3 | 0.1% | Lean R |
| GA-01 | REP | Amanda Hollowell | James Kingston | R 85% | R+7.6 | R+15.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| NY-17 | REP | Cait Conley | Mike Lawler | D 85% | D+5.2 | D+3.3 | 4 | 2.5% | Likely D |
| NC-07 | REP | Kimberly Hardy | David Rouzer | R 85% | R+6.5 | R+13.0 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-11 | REP | James Pericola | Joe Strada | R 85% | R+7.7 | R+14.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-01 | DEM | Don Davis | Laurie Buckhout | D 86% | D+5.8 | R+10.2 | 7 | 2.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| NE-01 | REP | Christopher Backemeyer | Mike Flood | R 86% | R+5.4 | R+12.4 | 5 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| GA-11 | REP | Chris Harden | John Cowan | R 86% | R+9.3 | R+22.9 | 1 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| FL-04 | REP | LaShonda Holloway | Aaron Bean | R 87% | R+7.5 | R+10.3 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-08 | REP | Jennifer Jenkins | Mike Haridopolos | R 87% | R+8.9 | R+14.7 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-01 | REP | Amish Shah | Jay Feely | D 87% | D+6.2 | R+1.6 | 3 | 2.2% | Likely D |
| MN-SEN | DEM | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | D 89% | D+6.5 | D+5.4 | 19 | — | Likely D |
| FL-02 | REP | Amanda Green | Austin Rogers | R 89% | R+9.0 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OH-08 | REP | Vanessa Enoch | Warren Davidson | R 89% | R+8.4 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IN-05 | REP | James Ford | Victoria Spartz | R 89% | R+6.3 | R+16.6 | 3 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| LA-SEN | REP | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | R 89% | R+6.6 | R+21.2 | 4 | — | Likely R |
| IA-GOV | REP | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | D 89% | D+6.8 | R+11.8 | 23 | — | Likely D |
| NC-05 | REP | Chuck Hubbard | Virginia Foxx | R 90% | R+8.7 | R+17.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NH-GOV | REP | Cinde Warmington | Kelly Ayotte | R 90% | R+6.5 | D+4.3 | 13 | — | Likely R |
| CO-04 | REP | Eileen Laubacher | Lauren Boebert | R 91% | R+7.3 | R+18.5 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NC-06 | REP | Cyril Jefferson | Addison McDowell | R 91% | R+9.3 | R+16.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-14 | REP | Lakesha Womack | Tim Moore | R 92% | R+9.0 | R+15.2 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AR-02 | REP | Chris Jones | French Hill | R 92% | R+7.2 | R+15.2 | 3 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TX-24 | REP | Kevin Burge | Elizabeth Van Duyne | R 92% | R+9.8 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-32 | REP | Dan Barrios | Jace Yarbrough | R 92% | R+10.6 | R+15.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OH-01 | DEM | Greg Landsman | Eric Conroy | D 92% | D+7.3 | R+1.6 | 3 | 2.1% | Likely Dredrawn |
| GA-12 | REP | Ceretta Smith | Rick Allen | R 92% | R+9.9 | R+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TN-09 | REP | Justin Pearson | Brent Taylor | R 92% | R+8.5 | R+18.4 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-SEN | REP | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | R 93% | R+7.4 | R+10.4 | 30 | — | Likely R |
| MI-GOV | DEM | Jocelyn Benson | John James | D 93% | D+7.9 | Even | 36 | — | Likely D |
| TX-09 | REP | Leticia Gutierrez | Alexandra Mealer | R 93% | R+8.4 | R+16.9 | 3 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-02 | REP | Shaun Finnie | Steve Toth | R 93% | R+11.4 | R+22.5 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-12 | REP | Kimberly Overman | Gus Bilirakis | R 93% | R+10.3 | R+12.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| UT-02 | REP | Peter Crosby | Blake Moore | R 93% | R+9.4 | R+30.1 | 2 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-08 | REP | Bernadette Greene Placentia | Abraham Hamadeh | R 94% | R+10.6 | R+15.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| MN-08 | REP | Trina Swanson | Peter Stauber | R 94% | R+8.5 | R+13.4 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| AZ-05 | REP | Elizabeth Lee | Mark Lamb | R 94% | R+11.7 | R+19.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NY-02 | REP | Patrick Halpin | Andrew Garbarino | R 94% | R+10.9 | R+10.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NE-GOV | REP | Lynne Walz+ Brett Lindstrom (I) | Jim Pillen | R 94% | R+8.1 | R+20.2 | 8 | — | Likely RIND on ballot |
| OK-01 | REP | John Croisant | Mark Tedford | R 94% | R+12.0 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| SC-02 | REP | Zyon Khalifa | Joe Wilson | R 94% | R+11.1 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| AZ-GOV | DEM | Katie Hobbs | Andy Biggs | D 94% | D+8.3 | R+3.8 | 22 | — | Likely D |
| SC-07 | REP | John Vincent | Russell Fry | R 94% | R+14.4 | R+24.4 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| WI-08 | REP | Rick Crosson | Tony Wied | R 94% | R+11.1 | R+15.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NY-03 | DEM | Tom Suozzi | Mike LiPetri | D 95% | D+11.3 | R+0.1 | 0 | 0.9% | Likely D |
| NH-SEN | DEM | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | D 95% | D+8.8 | D+4.3 | 16 | — | Likely D |
| WI-07 | REP | Fred Clark | Michael Alfonso | R 95% | R+12.5 | R+21.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NJ-02 | REP | Zack Mullock | Jeff Van Drew | R 95% | R+9.9 | R+10.9 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| NM-02 | DEM | Gabriel Vasquez | Greg Cunningham | D 95% | D+8.9 | D+0.5 | 3 | 1.5% | Likely D |
| GA-10 | REP | Pamela DeLancy | Houston Gaines | R 95% | R+12.7 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| AL-SEN | REP | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | R 95% | R+11.1 | R+29.3 | 5 | — | Likely R |
| MI-01 | REP | Callie Barr | Jack Bergman | R 96% | R+11.9 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| WA-04 | REP | John Duresky | Amanda McKinney | R 96% | R+13.1 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| FL-26 | REP | Nicole Locklin | Mario Diaz-Balart | R 96% | R+12.2 | R+13.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MS-SEN | REP | Scott Colom+ Ty Pinkins (I) | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R 96% | R+10.2 | R+21.2 | 3 | — | Likely RIND on ballot |
| OK-05 | REP | Jena Nelson | Stephanie Bice | R 96% | R+10.2 | R+18.4 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| NM-GOV | DEM | Deb Haaland | Gregg Hull | D 96% | D+9.7 | D+7.7 | 6 | — | Likely D |
| NC-10 | REP | Ashley Bell | Pat Harrigan | R 96% | R+10.9 | R+17.1 | 1 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-21 | REP | Kristin Hook | Mark Teixeira | R 96% | R+13.6 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MT-02 | REP | Brian Miller | Troy Downing | R 96% | R+16.6 | R+29.4 | 2 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| CA-48 | DEM | Marni von Wilpert | Jim Desmond | D 96% | D+10.0 | D+4.8 | 5 | 1.2% | Likely Dredrawn |
| TN-05 | REP | Chaz Molder | Charlie Hatcher | R 97% | R+11.4 | R+20.4 | 2 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| SC-GOV | REP | Jermaine Johnson | Alan Wilson | R 97% | R+10.6 | R+16.2 | 10 | — | Likely R |
| NV-01 | DEM | Dina Titus | Carrie Buck | D 97% | D+12.9 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| SC-05 | REP | Mallory Dittmer | Wes Climer | R 97% | R+14.1 | R+21.6 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| FL-18 | REP | Curtis Gibson | Scott Franklin | R 97% | R+13.1 | R+15.1 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| MO-03 | REP | Bethany Mann | Bob Onder | R 97% | R+13.1 | R+19.6 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-38 | REP | Melissa McDonough | Jon Bonck | R 97% | R+14.3 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-22 | REP | Marquette Greene-Scott | Trever Nehls | R 97% | R+14.3 | R+21.0 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-21 | REP | James Martin | Brian Mast | R 97% | R+12.3 | R+14.2 | 1 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| UT-04 | REP | Jonathan Larsen | Mike Kennedy | R 97% | R+12.5 | R+33.4 | 2 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NC-08 | REP | Colby Watson | Mark Harris | R 97% | R+13.4 | R+18.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-05 | REP | Rachel Grage | John Rutherford | R 97% | R+13.6 | R+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| GA-SEN | DEM | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | D 97% | D+10.0 | R+1.3 | 14 | — | Safe D |
| MD-01 | REP | Daniel Schwartz | Andy Harris | R 97% | R+11.3 | R+16.4 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| CA-22 | REP | Randy Villegas | David Valadao | D 97% | D+10.1 | D+3.3 | 2 | 1.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| OH-14 | REP | Maria Jukic | David Joyce | R 97% | R+14.0 | R+19.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| KS-04 | REP | Katy Tyndell | Ron Estes | R 97% | R+14.0 | R+23.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NV-03 | DEM | Susie Lee | Marty O'Donnell | D 97% | D+14.0 | D+1.5 | 0 | 0.5% | Safe D |
| WI-06 | REP | Brad Smith | Glenn Grothman | R 98% | R+11.5 | R+16.2 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| PA-11 | REP | Nancy Mannion | Lloyd Smucker | R 98% | R+14.1 | R+21.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TN-08 | REP | Heidi Kuhn | David Kustoff | R 98% | R+14.4 | R+18.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-31 | REP | Justin Early | John Carter | R 98% | R+14.5 | R+20.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NC-SEN | REP | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D 98% | D+11.1 | R+2.5 | 39 | — | Safe D |
| NH-01 | DEM | Stefany Shaheen | Anthony DiLorenzo | D 98% | D+10.9 | D+3.4 | 3 | 0.9% | Safe D |
| KS-02 | REP | Don Coover | Derek Schmidt | R 98% | R+11.7 | R+18.9 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| MN-06 | REP | Doug Chapin | Tom Emmer | R 98% | R+14.5 | R+19.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-27 | REP | Tanya Lloyd | Michael Cloud | R 98% | R+14.7 | R+20.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MI-08 | DEM | Kristen McDonald Rivet | Thomas J. Smith | D 98% | D+14.9 | R+0.7 | 0 | 0.4% | Safe D |
| NY-19 | DEM | Josh Riley | Peter Oberacker | D 98% | D+15.0 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.4% | Safe D |
| NV-04 | DEM | Steven Horsford | Cody Whipple | D 98% | D+15.1 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.4% | Safe D |
| MO-04 | REP | Jordan Herrera | Mark Alford | R 98% | R+15.1 | R+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-07 | REP | Darden Copeland | Matt Van Epps | R 98% | R+15.2 | R+21.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-13 | DEM | Adam Gray | Kevin Lincoln | D 98% | D+15.1 | D+5.2 | 0 | 0.4% | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-10 | REP | Caitlin Rourk | Chris Gober | R 98% | R+14.3 | R+20.6 | 1 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-05 | REP | Michael Masuda | Tom McClintock | R 98% | R+15.3 | R+19.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-28 | DEM | Henry Cuellar | Tano Tijerina | D 98% | D+13.5 | R+5.1 | 4 | 0.5% | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-16 | REP | Paul Nolley | Darin LaHood | R 98% | R+15.5 | R+22.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OK-GOV | REP | Cyndi Munson | Mike Mazzei | R 98% | R+13.4 | R+34.4 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| ME-GOV | DEM | Hannah Pingree+ Rick Bennett (I) | Robert Charles | D 98% | D+11.8 | D+8.0 | 18 | — | Safe DIND on ballot |
| MO-06 | REP | Josh Smead | Chris Stigall | R 98% | R+17.0 | R+26.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-12 | REP | Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman | Craig Goldman | R 99% | R+16.2 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-08 | DEM | Melissa Bean | Jennifer Davis | D 99% | D+17.6 | D+9.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| PA-16 | REP | Justin Wagner | George Kelly | R 99% | R+16.2 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| FL-15 | REP | Robert People | Laurel Lee | R 99% | R+16.3 | R+17.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NJ-09 | DEM | Nelida Pou | Rosemary Pino | D 99% | D+16.4 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| TX-03 | REP | Evan Hunt | Keith Self | R 99% | R+16.4 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-45 | DEM | Derek Tran | Chuong Vo | D 99% | D+16.5 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-05 | REP | Chelsey Hockett | Lance Gooden | R 99% | R+16.5 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-03 | REP | Seth Harp | Kat Cammack | R 99% | R+16.6 | R+19.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-23 | REP | Tessa Lynn Hodge | Jay Obernolte | R 99% | R+16.6 | R+17.7 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MN-02 | DEM | Matt Little | Eric Pratt | D 99% | D+13.2 | D+6.6 | 2 | 0.4% | Safe D |
| LA-06 | DEM | Democratic candidate (LA-06) | Republican candidate (LA-06) | R 99% | R+18.4 | R+32.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-17 | REP | Casey Shepard | Pete Sessions | R 99% | R+16.9 | R+20.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-23 | REP | Aaron Gies | Nick Langworthy | R 99% | R+16.0 | R+20.2 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| TN-GOV | REP | Jerri Green | Marsha Blackburn | R 99% | R+14.0 | R+28.2 | 6 | — | Safe R |
| KY-SEN | REP | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | R 99% | R+14.9 | R+29.5 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| IN-01 | DEM | Frank Mrvan | Barb Regnitz | D 99% | D+17.3 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| NE-02 | REP | Denise Powell | Brinker Harding | D 99% | D+13.6 | D+5.5 | 2 | 0.4% | Safe D |
| OH-13 | DEM | Emilia Sykes | Carey Coleman | D 99% | D+17.1 | D+4.3 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-05 | DEM | Josh Gottheimer | Sean Kirrane | D 99% | D+17.4 | D+4.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| AR-SEN | REP | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | R 99% | R+13.2 | R+30.4 | 7 | — | Safe R |
| TX-06 | REP | Danny Minton | Jake Ellzey | R 99% | R+17.5 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-17 | REP | Matthew Montavon | Greg Steube | R 99% | R+17.8 | R+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WI-05 | REP | Andrew Beck | Scott Fitzgerald | R 99% | R+17.8 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NY-04 | REP | Laura Gillen | Jeanine Driscoll | D 99% | D+18.0 | D+5.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| PA-17 | DEM | Chris Deluzio | Tony Guy | D 99% | D+17.9 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| CA-25 | DEM | Raul Ruiz | Joe Males | D 99% | D+18.1 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-28 | REP | Phil Ehr | Carlos Gimenez | R 99% | R+18.0 | R+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-24 | REP | Alissa Ellman | Claudia Tenney | R 99% | R+18.2 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-14 | REP | Thurman Bartie | Randy Weber | R 99% | R+18.1 | R+23.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-05 | REP | Brian Shaver | Bob Latta | R 99% | R+18.2 | R+23.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MN-GOV | DEM | Amy Klobuchar | Lisa Demuth | D 99% | D+13.9 | D+5.4 | 13 | — | Safe D |
| VA-07 | DEM | Eugene Vindman | Doug Ollivant | D 99% | D+18.1 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| AL-05 | REP | Andrew Sneed | Dale Strong | R 99% | R+18.3 | R+28.7 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-06 | REP | Mike Croley | Johnny Garrett | R 99% | R+19.7 | R+25.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AZ-04 | DEM | Greg Stanton | Zuhdi Jasser | D 99% | D+18.3 | D+8.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| KS-03 | DEM | Sharice Davids | Eric Jenkins | D 99% | D+18.5 | D+4.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| SC-04 | REP | Courtney McClain | William Timmons | R 99% | R+18.5 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TN-04 | REP | Victoria Broderick | Scott Desjarlais | R 99% | R+18.9 | R+21.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-GOV | DEM | Kathy Hochul | Bruce Blakeman | D 99% | D+13.9 | D+15.7 | 17 | — | Safe D |
| GA-03 | REP | Maura Keller | Brian Jack | R 99% | R+15.8 | R+29.7 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| WA-08 | DEM | Kim Schrier | Spencer Meline | D 99% | D+19.1 | D+6.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IL-SEN | DEM | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | D 99% | D+15.0 | D+13.0 | 5 | — | Safe D |
| IL-17 | DEM | Eric Sorensen | Dillan Vancil | D 99% | D+19.3 | D+5.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| AR-03 | REP | Robb Ryerse | Steve Womack | R 99% | R+19.6 | R+25.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-04 | DEM | Patty Garcia | Lupe Castillo | D 99% | D+29.7 | D+33.7 | 1 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| MI-03 | DEM | Hillary Scholten | Terri DeBoer | D 99.5% | D+19.7 | D+8.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| TX-26 | REP | Steven Shook | Brandon Gill | R 99.6% | R+20.0 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-06 | DEM | Sean Casten | Niki Conforti | D 99.6% | D+19.8 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CT-02 | DEM | Joe Courtney | George Austin | D 99.6% | D+20.2 | D+9.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| MD-06 | DEM | April Delaney | Robin Ficker | D 99.6% | D+20.1 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| TX-36 | REP | Rhonda Hart | Brian Babin | R 99.6% | R+20.3 | R+23.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OR-05 | REP | Janelle Bynum | Patti Adair | D 99.6% | D+20.2 | D+9.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-06 | IND | Richard Pan | Kevin Kiley | D 99.6% | D+14.4 | D+10.1 | 2 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-03 | DEM | Herb Conaway | Michael McGuire | D 99.6% | D+20.5 | D+9.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| TX-25 | REP | Dione Sims | Roger Williams | R 99.6% | R+20.3 | R+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-14 | DEM | Lauren Underwood | James Marter | D 99.6% | D+20.4 | D+7.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NY-22 | DEM | John Mannion | Kailee Buller | D 99.6% | D+20.4 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| LA-05 | REP | Democratic candidate (LA-05) | Republican candidate (LA-05) | R 99.7% | R+22.7 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OR-02 | REP | Chris Beck | Cliff Bentz | R 99.7% | R+21.1 | R+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CT-05 | DEM | Jahana Hayes | Chris Shea | D 99.7% | D+16.7 | D+7.3 | 1 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NY-18 | DEM | Pat Ryan | Jackie Auringer | D 99.7% | D+17.1 | D+5.2 | 2 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| TX-04 | REP | Jason Pearce | Pat Fallon | R 99.7% | R+21.2 | R+23.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IA-04 | REP | Dave Dawson | Chris McGowan | R 99.7% | R+23.3 | R+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-11 | DEM | Analilia Mejia | Joe Hathaway | D 99.7% | D+21.5 | D+10.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-03 | DEM | Amerish Bera | Robb Tucker | D 99.7% | D+21.6 | D+11.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-21 | DEM | Jim Costa | Kyle Kirkland | D 99.7% | D+21.6 | D+10.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-08 | REP | Laura Jones | Jessica Steinmann | R 99.7% | R+23.4 | R+25.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IN-03 | REP | Kelly Thompson | Marlin Stutzman | R 99.8% | R+22.0 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OH-12 | REP | Jerrad Christian | Troy Balderson | R 99.8% | R+21.8 | R+29.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| VA-06 | REP | Beth Macy | Ben Cline | R 99.8% | R+21.1 | R+23.6 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| RI-GOV | DEM | Helena Foulkes+ Ken Block (I) | Aaron Guckian | D 99.8% | D+18.6 | D+16.3 | 7 | — | Safe DIND 0.3% |
| UT-03 | REP | Kent Udell | Celeste Maloy | R 99.8% | R+21.6 | R+42.1 | 2 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CO-GOV | DEM | Phil Weiser+ Greg Lopez (I) | Victor Marx | D 99.8% | D+17.1 | D+12.3 | 4 | — | Safe DIND on ballot |
| IN-04 | REP | Drew Cox | Jim Baird | R 99.8% | R+22.1 | R+29.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NY-11 | REP | Michael DeCillis | Nicole Malliotakis | R 99.8% | R+22.1 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-04 | DEM | Valerie Hoyle | Monique Despain | D 99.8% | D+22.5 | D+12.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-38 | DEM | Hilda Solis | Pedro Casas | D 99.8% | D+25.2 | D+17.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-09 | DEM | Bill Keating | Robert MacAllister | D 99.8% | D+23.0 | D+13.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-05 | REP | Christian Vukasovich | Timothy Walberg | R 99.8% | R+22.8 | R+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NH-02 | DEM | Maggie Goodlander | Lily Williams | D 99.8% | D+15.9 | D+5.3 | 8 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NM-03 | DEM | Teresa Leger Fernandez | Martin Zamora | D 99.8% | D+17.7 | D+7.1 | 1 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| WY-GOV | REP | Kenneth Casner | Eric Barlow | R 99.8% | R+25.1 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-47 | DEM | Dave Min | Jenny Rae Le Roux | D 99.8% | D+22.8 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IN-09 | REP | Brad Meyer | Erin Houchin | R 99.8% | R+22.9 | R+29.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-06 | DEM | Chrissy Houlahan | Martin Young | D 99.8% | D+23.3 | D+12.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IN-02 | REP | Jamee Decio | Rudy Yakym | R 99.8% | R+23.2 | R+25.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MS-03 | REP | Michael Chiaradio | Mike Guest | R 99.8% | R+23.0 | R+27.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MI-11 | DEM | Jeremy Moss | Ethan Baker | D 99.8% | D+25.9 | D+17.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-14 | REP | Shawn Harris | Clay Fuller | R 99.9% | R+23.6 | R+37.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-49 | DEM | Mike Levin | Armen Kurdian | D 99.9% | D+23.4 | D+13.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-19 | REP | Victor Arias | Jim Schwartzel | R 99.9% | R+26.1 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IN-06 | REP | Cynthia Wirth | Jefferson Shreve | R 99.9% | R+23.7 | R+32.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KS-01 | REP | Lauren Reinhold | Tracey Mann | R 99.9% | R+23.9 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-26 | DEM | Jacqui Irwin | Samuel Gallucci | D 99.9% | D+26.2 | D+17.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-13 | DEM | Nikki Budzinski | Jeff Wilson | D 99.9% | D+23.6 | D+11.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-06 | DEM | Frank Pallone | Hillary Herzig | D 99.9% | D+23.8 | D+10.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-SEN | DEM | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | D 99.9% | D+24.0 | D+8.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-02 | REP | Elinor Gilbreath | Mike Simpson | R 99.9% | R+21.1 | R+26.3 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| GA-02 | DEM | Sanford Bishop | Matt Day | D 99.9% | D+24.1 | D+8.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-02 | REP | Benjamin Ambrose | John Moolenaar | R 99.9% | R+24.7 | R+29.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-06 | DEM | Andrea Salinas | David Russ | D 99.9% | D+24.6 | D+12.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OK-SEN | REP | Jasmine Thomas | Kevin Hern | R 99.9% | R+26.4 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-35 | DEM | Norma Torres | Mike Cargile | D 99.9% | D+25.4 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| KY-04 | REP | Melissa Strange | Ed Gallrein | R 99.9% | R+26.8 | R+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-04 | REP | Democratic candidate (LA-04) | Mike Johnson | R 99.9% | R+24.7 | R+33.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| GA-08 | REP | Kelly Esti | Austin Scott | R >99.9% | R+25.1 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-11 | DEM | Bill Foster | Jeffrey Walter | D >99.9% | D+24.8 | D+12.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-10 | DEM | Suhas Subramanyam | Dave Beckwith | D >99.9% | D+25.2 | D+11.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-01 | REP | Clyde Jones | Jerry Carl | R >99.9% | R+27.8 | R+34.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AZ-09 | REP | Danielle Sterbinsky | Paul Gosar | R >99.9% | R+25.2 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| DE-01 | DEM | Sarah McBride | Joseph Arminio | D >99.9% | D+25.4 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| FL-06 | REP | Eric Yonce | Randy Fine | R >99.9% | R+25.0 | R+28.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WA-10 | DEM | Marilyn Strickland | Chris D. Chung | D >99.9% | D+25.4 | D+18.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CO-07 | DEM | Brittany Pettersen | Tim Bennett | D >99.9% | D+26.1 | D+15.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-SEN | DEM | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | D >99.9% | D+21.5 | D+7.3 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| CT-GOV | DEM | Ned Lamont | Ryan Fazio | D >99.9% | D+18.7 | D+16.5 | 13 | — | Safe D |
| CA-27 | DEM | George Whitesides | Jason Gibbs | D >99.9% | D+25.5 | D+12.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| HI-GOV | DEM | Josh Green | Gary Cordery | D >99.9% | D+26.8 | D+25.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-42 | DEM | Robert Garcia | Brian Burley | D >99.9% | D+27.2 | D+15.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NM-01 | DEM | Melanie Stansbury | Ndidiamaka Okpareke | D >99.9% | D+23.5 | D+13.8 | 1 | — | Safe D |
| OR-SEN | DEM | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | D >99.9% | D+27.1 | D+15.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-06 | REP | Maurice Mercer | Gary Palmer | R >99.9% | R+26.5 | R+34.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IN-08 | REP | Mary Allen | Mark Messmer | R >99.9% | R+26.5 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-03 | REP | Democratic candidate (LA-03) | Clay Higgins | R >99.9% | R+26.2 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OK-04 | REP | Mitchell Jacob | Tom Cole | R >99.9% | R+27.2 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TN-02 | REP | Michaela Barnett | Tim Burchett | R >99.9% | R+27.0 | R+32.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MT-SEN | REP | Alani Bankhead+ Seth Bodnar (I) | Kurt Alme | R 98% | R+17.8 | R+19.3 | 17 | — | Safe RIND 2% |
| GA-09 | REP | Caitlyn Gegen | Andrew Clyde | R >99.9% | R+27.3 | R+33.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| ND-01 | REP | Trygve Hammer | Julie Fedorchak | R >99.9% | R+27.5 | R+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-14 | REP | David Bradstock | Guy Reschenthaler | R >99.9% | R+27.9 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-01 | DEM | Mike McGuire | James Gallagher | D >99.9% | D+19.0 | D+14.4 | 2 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-39 | DEM | Mark Takano | Steve Manos | D >99.9% | D+28.3 | D+14.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-51 | DEM | Sara Jacobs | Ricardo Cabrera | D >99.9% | D+26.9 | D+20.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NY-06 | DEM | Grace Meng | Joseph Chou | D >99.9% | D+27.0 | D+12.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-20 | DEM | Paul Tonko | Ralph Ambrosio | D >99.9% | D+27.3 | D+16.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| LA-01 | REP | Lauren Jewett | Steve Scalise | R >99.9% | R+27.9 | R+39.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MI-09 | REP | Ray Pooley | Lisa McClain | R >99.9% | R+28.0 | R+31.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MN-07 | REP | Erik Osberg | Michelle Fischbach | R >99.9% | R+28.2 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MS-01 | REP | Cliff Johnson | Trent Kelly | R >99.9% | R+29.0 | R+35.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-09 | REP | Rachel Wallace | Dan Meuser | R >99.9% | R+27.9 | R+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SD-01 | REP | Nicole Gronli | Marty Jackley | R >99.9% | R+22.6 | R+28.9 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| TX-11 | REP | Claire Reynolds | August Pfluger | R >99.9% | R+28.3 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-31 | DEM | Gilbert Cisneros | Eric Ching | D >99.9% | D+27.8 | D+16.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-33 | DEM | Pete Aguilar | Stephanie Vargas | D >99.9% | D+28.2 | D+14.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CT-03 | DEM | Rosa Delauro | Christopher Lancia | D >99.9% | D+28.5 | D+16.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-06 | DEM | Daniel Koh | Micah Quinney Jones | D >99.9% | D+32.3 | D+23.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-03 | DEM | Kelly Morrison | Tyler Bass | D >99.9% | D+28.5 | D+22.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-04 | DEM | Madeleine Dean | Aurora Stuski | D >99.9% | D+28.7 | D+17.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| SD-GOV | REP | Dan Ahlers | Larry Rhoden | R >99.9% | R+20.3 | R+28.9 | 5 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-04 | REP | Rachel Peace | Chris Smith | R >99.9% | R+29.1 | R+28.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OH-06 | REP | Elizabeth Kirtley | Michael Rulli | R >99.9% | R+29.8 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-03 | REP | Anna Golladay | Chuck Fleischmann | R >99.9% | R+29.1 | R+34.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WY-01 | REP | Lisa Kinney | Chuck Gray | R >99.9% | R+31.6 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-09 | DEM | Josh Harder | John McBride | D >99.9% | D+29.8 | D+15.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-50 | DEM | Scott Peters | Steve Cohen | D >99.9% | D+29.3 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-06 | DEM | Jason Crow | Jason Clark | D >99.9% | D+29.9 | D+21.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CT-01 | DEM | Luke Bronin | Amy Chai | D >99.9% | D+33.8 | D+24.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-25 | DEM | Joe Morelle | Virginia McIntyre | D >99.9% | D+29.6 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-12 | DEM | Summer Lee | James Hayes | D >99.9% | D+29.7 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| RI-02 | DEM | Seth Magaziner | Victor Mellor | D >99.9% | D+20.6 | D+9.1 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| WA-06 | DEM | Emily Randall | Teresa Fox | D >99.9% | D+29.9 | D+19.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| DE-SEN | DEM | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | D >99.9% | D+28.5 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NM-SEN | DEM | Ben Ray Lujan | Larry Marker | D >99.9% | D+21.1 | D+7.7 | 4 | — | Safe D |
| AR-GOV | REP | Fredrick Love | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R >99.9% | R+20.9 | R+30.4 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| IL-GOV | DEM | JB Pritzker | Darren Bailey | D >99.9% | D+21.1 | D+13.0 | 6 | — | Safe D |
| MD-GOV | DEM | Wes Moore | Dan Cox | D >99.9% | D+28.8 | D+31.0 | 3 | — | Safe D |
| AL-07 | DEM | Terri Sewell | Ammie Akin | D >99.9% | D+32.0 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-20 | REP | Sandra Van Scotter | Vince Fong | R >99.9% | R+29.5 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-41 | DEM | Linda Sanchez | Mitch Clemmons | D >99.9% | D+31.7 | D+17.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-01 | REP | Gay Valimont | Jimmy Patronis | R >99.9% | R+31.8 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| KY-03 | DEM | Morgan McGarvey | Maria Rodriguez | D >99.9% | D+32.8 | D+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-02 | REP | Jennifer Mazzuckelli | David Taylor | R >99.9% | R+30.9 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-15 | REP | Raymond Bilger | Glenn Thompson | R >99.9% | R+30.6 | R+37.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WV-02 | REP | Ahsan Parsi | Riley Moore | R >99.9% | R+31.6 | R+39.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TN-SEN | REP | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | R >99.9% | R+24.4 | R+28.2 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| WY-SEN | REP | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | R >99.9% | R+33.8 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-GOV | DEM | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton | D >99.9% | D+24.4 | D+23.4 | 17 | — | Safe D |
| ID-GOV | REP | Terri Pickens | Brad Little | R >99.9% | R+23.5 | R+35.8 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| MA-GOV | DEM | Maura Healey | Mike Minogue | D >99.9% | D+24.2 | D+28.3 | 8 | — | Safe D |
| PA-GOV | DEM | Josh Shapiro | Stacy Garrity | D >99.9% | D+24.6 | R+0.7 | 16 | — | Safe D |
| AR-04 | REP | James Russell | Bruce Westerman | R >99.9% | R+35.8 | R+39.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-02 | DEM | Jared Huffman | Robin Littau | D >99.9% | D+32.3 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-24 | DEM | Salud Carbajal | Robert Smith | D >99.9% | D+35.4 | D+27.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-46 | DEM | Lou Correa | David Pan | D >99.9% | D+33.3 | D+20.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-23 | DEM | Lois Frankel | Deborah Adeimy | D >99.9% | D+32.4 | D+17.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| HI-01 | DEM | Ed Case | Adriel Lam | D >99.9% | D+34.8 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-01 | REP | Kaylee Peterson | Russ Fulcher | R >99.9% | R+29.4 | R+44.1 | 3 | — | Safe R |
| IL-10 | DEM | Bradley Schneider | Carl Lambrecht | D >99.9% | D+31.7 | D+23.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-12 | REP | Julie Fortier | Mike Bost | R >99.9% | R+34.8 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-15 | REP | Jennifer Todd | Mary Miller | R >99.9% | R+32.3 | R+39.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MD-02 | DEM | John Olszewski | David Wallace | D >99.9% | D+30.8 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-03 | DEM | Sarah Elfreth | Berney Flowers | D >99.9% | D+34.7 | D+25.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-05 | DEM | Adrian Boafo | Chris Chaffee | D >99.9% | D+38.6 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-06 | DEM | Debbie Dingell | Heather Smiley | D >99.9% | D+32.7 | D+25.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MO-07 | REP | Missi Hesketh | Eric Burlison | R >99.9% | R+33.0 | R+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MS-02 | DEM | Bennie Thompson | Ron Eller | D >99.9% | D+36.9 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-01 | DEM | Donald Norcross | Damon Galdo | D >99.9% | D+33.5 | D+20.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-26 | DEM | Timothy Kennedy | Dennis Hannon | D >99.9% | D+34.5 | D+21.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-04 | REP | Joshua Kolasinski | Jim Jordan | R >99.9% | R+35.0 | R+42.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-13 | REP | Elizabeth Farnham | John Joyce | R >99.9% | R+37.4 | R+45.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| RI-01 | DEM | Gabriel Amo | Kellie Keenan | D >99.9% | D+30.3 | D+24.7 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| SC-03 | REP | Eunice Lehmacher | Sheri Biggs | R >99.9% | R+36.8 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| VA-09 | REP | Joy Powers | Morgan Griffith | R >99.9% | R+35.4 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| VT-01 | DEM | Rebecca Balint | Gerald Malloy | D >99.9% | D+28.6 | D+34.1 | 4 | — | Safe D |
| WA-02 | DEM | Rick Larsen | Edwin H. Feller | D >99.9% | D+34.3 | D+24.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CO-SEN | DEM | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley | D >99.9% | D+23.6 | D+12.3 | 3 | — | Safe D |
| MA-SEN | DEM | Ed Markey | John Deaton | D >99.9% | D+26.1 | D+28.3 | 8 | — | Safe D |
| WV-SEN | REP | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | R >99.9% | R+34.8 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AK-01 | REP | —+ Bill Hill (I) | Nick Begich III | R 76% | R+3.6 | R+12.7 | 16 | 0.3% | Lean RRCV · IND 24% |
| AL-03 | REP | Lee McInnis | Mike Rogers | R >99.9% | R+41.5 | R+45.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AL-04 | REP | Amanda Pusczek | Robert Aderholt | R >99.9% | R+59.7 | R+65.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AR-01 | REP | Terri Green | Rick Crawford | R >99.9% | R+39.7 | R+45.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AZ-03 | DEM | Yassamin Ansari | (no Republican — write-in only) | D >99.9% | D+59.3 | D+43.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AZ-07 | DEM | Adelita Grijalva | Daniel Butierez | D >99.9% | D+42.0 | D+25.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-04 | DEM | Mike Thompson | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+25.7 | D+16.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-07 | DEM | Doris Matsui | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+23.9 | D+15.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-08 | DEM | John Garamendi | Rudy Recile | D >99.9% | D+51.6 | D+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-10 | DEM | Mark DeSaulnier | Jeff Frese | D >99.9% | D+42.6 | D+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-11 | DEM | Scott Wiener | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+79.0 | D+72.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-12 | DEM | Lateefah Simon | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+86.0 | D+79.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-14 | DEM | Aisha Wahab | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+50.5 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-15 | DEM | Kevin Mullin | Charles Hoelter | D >99.9% | D+64.6 | D+52.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-16 | DEM | Sam Liccardo | Peter Sundin Soulé | D >99.9% | D+60.4 | D+51.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-17 | DEM | Rohit Khanna | Ritesh Tandon | D >99.9% | D+58.3 | D+43.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-18 | DEM | Zoe Lofgren | Shane Lewis | D >99.9% | D+49.0 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-19 | DEM | Jimmy Panetta | Peter Verbica | D >99.9% | D+47.2 | D+37.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-28 | DEM | Judy Chu | April Verlato | D >99.9% | D+40.8 | D+28.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-29 | DEM | Luz Rivas | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+52.7 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-30 | DEM | Laura Friedman | Scott Alan Meyers | D >99.9% | D+52.5 | D+42.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-32 | DEM | Brad Sherman | Larry Thompson | D >99.9% | D+42.0 | D+28.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-34 | DEM | Jimmy Gomez | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+72.3 | D+56.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-36 | DEM | Ted Lieu | Houston Brignano | D >99.9% | D+52.1 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-37 | DEM | Sydney Kamlager-Dove | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+82.8 | D+65.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-40 | REP | — | Ken Calvert | R >99.9% | R+6.4 | R+11.1 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe Rsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-43 | DEM | Maxine Waters | Cristian Morales | D >99.9% | D+73.3 | D+54.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-44 | DEM | Nanette Barragan | Genevieve Angel | D >99.9% | D+58.2 | D+41.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-52 | DEM | Juan Vargas | Jeff Belle | D >99.9% | D+36.5 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-01 | DEM | Melat Kiros | Christy Peterson | D >99.9% | D+68.7 | D+59.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CO-02 | DEM | Joe Neguse | Kelley Dennison | D >99.9% | D+49.1 | D+41.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CT-04 | DEM | Jim Himes | Michael Goldstein | D >99.9% | D+40.0 | D+26.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| FL-10 | DEM | Maxwell Frost | (no Republican — unopposed) | D >99.9% | D+39.6 | D+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-20 | DEM | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | Brent Andersen | D >99.9% | D+59.0 | D+40.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-24 | DEM | Oliver Gilbert | Te Brown | D >99.9% | D+61.3 | D+43.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-04 | DEM | Henry Johnson | Jim Duffie | D >99.9% | D+65.2 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-05 | DEM | Nikema Williams | John Salvesen | D >99.9% | D+74.0 | D+73.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-06 | DEM | Lucia McBath | Kevin Martin | D >99.9% | D+57.6 | D+50.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-13 | DEM | Jasmine Clark | Jonathan Chavez | D >99.9% | D+44.3 | D+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| HI-02 | DEM | Jill Tokuda | Brenton Awa | D >99.9% | D+38.4 | D+24.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-01 | DEM | Jonathan Jackson | Christian Maxwell | D >99.9% | D+51.3 | D+35.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-02 | DEM | Donna Miller | Mike Noack | D >99.9% | D+43.4 | D+35.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-03 | DEM | Delia Ramirez | Angel Oakley | D >99.9% | D+52.1 | D+34.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-05 | DEM | Mike Quigley | Tom Hanson | D >99.9% | D+45.0 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-07 | DEM | La Shawn Ford | Chad Koppie | D >99.9% | D+83.5 | D+68.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-09 | DEM | Daniel Biss | John Elleson | D >99.9% | D+43.8 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IN-07 | DEM | Andre Carson | Patrick McAuley | D >99.9% | D+46.6 | D+42.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-01 | REP | Drew Williams | James Comer | R >99.9% | R+42.4 | R+46.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KY-02 | REP | Megan Wingfield | Brett Guthrie | R >99.9% | R+37.6 | R+40.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KY-05 | REP | Ned Pillersdorf | Harold Rogers | R >99.9% | R+57.5 | R+63.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-02 | DEM | Troy Carter | Peter Williams | D >99.9% | D+58.4 | D+50.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-01 | DEM | Richard Neal | (no Republican) | D >99.9% | D+27.1 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-02 | DEM | Jim McGovern | (no Republican) | D >99.9% | D+37.1 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-03 | DEM | Lori Trahan | Gary Grossi | D >99.9% | D+36.4 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-04 | DEM | Jake Auchincloss | Thomas Stalcup | D >99.9% | D+37.3 | D+22.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-05 | DEM | Katherine Clark | (no Republican) | D >99.9% | D+57.7 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-07 | DEM | Ayanna Pressley | (no Republican) | D >99.9% | D+82.9 | D+67.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-08 | DEM | Stephen Lynch | Robert Burke | D >99.9% | D+41.0 | D+29.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-04 | DEM | Glenn Ivey | George McDermott | D >99.9% | D+87.1 | D+77.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-07 | DEM | Kweisi Mfume | Scott Collier | D >99.9% | D+69.2 | D+61.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-08 | DEM | Jamie Raskin | Cheryl Riley | D >99.9% | D+73.5 | D+59.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ME-01 | DEM | Chellie Pingree | Ronald Russell | D >99.9% | D+29.8 | D+22.9 | 2 | — | Safe DRCV |
| MI-12 | DEM | Rashida Tlaib | James D. Hooper | D >99.9% | D+60.8 | D+42.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-13 | DEM | Donavan McKinney | T.P. Nykoriak | D >99.9% | D+53.3 | D+44.6 | 1 | — | Safe D |
| MN-04 | DEM | Betty McCollum | Paul Wikstrom | D >99.9% | D+46.4 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-05 | DEM | Ilhan Omar+ DeVelle L. Jackson (I) | John Nagel | D >99.9% | D+68.3 | D+64.1 | 0 | — | Safe DIND on ballot |
| MO-01 | DEM | Wesley Bell | Paul Berry | D >99.9% | D+59.7 | D+59.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MO-08 | REP | Christopher Reichard | Jason Smith | R >99.9% | R+45.3 | R+53.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MS-04 | REP | Jeffrey Hulum | Mike Ezell | R >99.9% | R+37.5 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NC-02 | DEM | Deborah Ross | Eugene Douglass | D >99.9% | D+39.4 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NC-04 | DEM | Valerie Foushee | Mahesh Ganorkar | D >99.9% | D+53.2 | D+46.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NC-12 | DEM | Alma Adams | John Codiga | D >99.9% | D+56.9 | D+48.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NE-03 | REP | Becky Stille | Adrian Smith | R >99.9% | R+44.9 | R+53.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-08 | DEM | Rob Menendez | (no Republican) | D >99.9% | D+47.2 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-10 | DEM | Lamonica McIver | Carmen Bucco | D >99.9% | D+73.0 | D+52.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-12 | DEM | Adam Hamawy | Gregg Mele | D >99.9% | D+39.1 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-05 | DEM | Gregory Meeks | George Marsh | D >99.9% | D+63.8 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-07 | DEM | Claire Valdez | Melvin Rivera | D >99.9% | D+63.4 | D+51.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-08 | DEM | Hakeem Jeffries | Lewis Mizrahi | D >99.9% | D+63.6 | D+47.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-09 | DEM | Yvette Clarke | Joel Anabilah-Azumah | D >99.9% | D+59.6 | D+44.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-10 | DEM | Brad Lander | Jennifer Moore | D >99.9% | D+82.3 | D+64.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-12 | DEM | Micah Lasher | Caroline Shinkle | D >99.9% | D+79.4 | D+67.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-13 | DEM | Darializa Avila Chevalier | Jomo Williams | D >99.9% | D+79.3 | D+65.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-14 | DEM | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Diamant Hysenaj | D >99.9% | D+56.3 | D+38.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-15 | DEM | Ritchie Torres | Stylo Sapaskis | D >99.9% | D+71.0 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-16 | DEM | George Latimer | Joseph Cinquemani | D >99.9% | D+50.4 | D+36.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-03 | DEM | Joyce Beatty | Cleophus Dulaney | D >99.9% | D+48.0 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OH-11 | DEM | Shontel Brown | Mike Kirchner | D >99.9% | D+60.3 | D+56.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OK-02 | REP | Brandon Wade | Josh Brecheen | R >99.9% | R+47.6 | R+55.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OK-03 | REP | Suzie Byrd | Frank Lucas | R >99.9% | R+37.5 | R+44.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-01 | DEM | Suzanne Bonamici | Barbara Kahl | D >99.9% | D+47.1 | D+39.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OR-03 | DEM | Maxine Dexter | Loran Ayles | D >99.9% | D+50.5 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-02 | DEM | Brendan Boyle | Jessica Arriaga | D >99.9% | D+49.4 | D+38.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-03 | DEM | Chris Rabb | (no Republican) | D >99.9% | D+81.1 | D+79.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-05 | DEM | Mary Scanlon | Nick Manganaro | D >99.9% | D+41.3 | D+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| SC-06 | DEM | Jim Clyburn | John Peterson | D >99.9% | D+40.1 | D+25.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-01 | REP | Kristi Burke | Diana Harshbarger | R >99.9% | R+47.7 | R+57.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-01 | REP | Yolanda Prince | Nathaniel Moran | R >99.9% | R+44.6 | R+48.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-07 | DEM | Elizabeth Fletcher | Alexander Hale | D >99.9% | D+38.9 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-13 | REP | Mark Nair | Ronny Jackson | R >99.9% | R+37.2 | R+45.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-16 | DEM | Veronica Escobar | Adam Bauman | D >99.9% | D+38.7 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-18 | DEM | Christian Menefee | Ronald Whitfield | D >99.9% | D+73.5 | D+58.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-19 | REP | Kyle Rable | Tom Sell | R >99.9% | R+44.8 | R+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-20 | DEM | Joaquin Castro | Edgardo Baez | D >99.9% | D+50.0 | D+32.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-29 | DEM | Sylvia Garcia | Martha Fierro | D >99.9% | D+52.7 | D+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-30 | DEM | Frederick Haynes | Everett Jackson | D >99.9% | D+68.9 | D+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-33 | DEM | Colin Allred | Patrick Gillespie | D >99.9% | D+49.3 | D+36.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-37 | DEM | Greg Casar | Lauren Pena | D >99.9% | D+72.8 | D+59.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| UT-01 | DEM | Ben McAdams | Riley Owen | D >99.9% | D+37.5 | D+25.0 | 2 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-03 | DEM | Bobby Scott | Edwin Rivera | D >99.9% | D+49.0 | D+36.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-04 | DEM | Jennifer McClellan | Robert Murray | D >99.9% | D+46.4 | D+34.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-08 | DEM | Don Beyer | Tony Sabio | D >99.9% | D+66.8 | D+52.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-11 | DEM | James Walkinshaw | Arthur Purves | D >99.9% | D+51.6 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-01 | DEM | Suzan DelBene | Mary Silva | D >99.9% | D+40.0 | D+30.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-07 | DEM | Pramila Jayapal | Nirav Sheth | D >99.9% | D+80.7 | D+77.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-09 | DEM | Adam Smith | Doug Basler | D >99.9% | D+53.8 | D+43.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WI-02 | DEM | Mark Pocan | (no Republican filed) | D >99.9% | D+47.1 | D+41.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WI-04 | DEM | Gwen Moore | Tim Rogers | D >99.9% | D+55.6 | D+53.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WV-01 | REP | Vince George | Carol Miller | R >99.9% | R+39.1 | R+44.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| ID-SEN | REP | —+ Todd Achilles (I) | Jim Risch | R 96% | R+10.4 | R+35.8 | 8 | — | Likely RIND 4% |
| NE-SEN | REP | —+ Dan Osborn (I) | Pete Ricketts | R 75% | R+3.4 | R+20.2 | 18 | — | Lean RIND 25% |
| RI-SEN | DEM | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | D >99.9% | D+29.7 | D+16.3 | 7 | — | Safe D |
| SD-SEN | REP | —+ Brian Bengs (I) | Mike Rounds | R 99% | R+12.7 | R+28.9 | 12 | — | Safe RIND 1% |
Analysis
written piecesHow the polls did: results ran more Democratic than the averages
In most races the final polling average understated the Democratic candidate's margin. The miss was about four points in House races, two to three in Senate and governor races. It was broad rather than concentrated, and it is the main reason the House result is on course to finish above our forecast range.
Maine, Texas and Iowa Senate averages move towards Democrats a day out
The chance of a Democratic Senate rose from 69% to 76% after a day of new state polls. Iowa tipped to Josh Turek by 0.2 points, and the New Hampshire and Vermont governor races moved sharply after one poll.