California 4th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026 · same-party (top-two) contest
- Projected margin
- D+29.7
- 80% range
- D+18.1 to D+41.2
- Partisan lean
- D+16.9
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+29.9
- Blended
- D+29.9
- Similar-race shift
- −1.5
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+16.9
- Elasticity
- 1.05
- Incumbency
- +1.9
- Candidate experience
- +0.8
- Fundraising
- +3.8
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+31.4
- 2024 margin
- D+15.0
- 2020 margin
- D+21.6
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+6.6
- Votes cast, 2024
- 343,934
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 591,002
- Median age
- 48.6
- Median household income
- $89,100
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 32%
- White
- 55%
- Black
- 3%
- Hispanic
- 27%
- Asian
- 12%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | DEM | $4.2M | $1.1M |
| Raymond Riehle | REP | $115k | $4k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.