California 38th District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Hilda Solis
99%
Republican
Pedro Casas
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+27.9
- 80% range
- D+12.7 to D+43.1
- Partisan lean
- D+17.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.07%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+28.6
- Blended
- D+28.6
- Similar-race shift
- −0.9
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+17.1
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.5
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+29.4