Chamber control
Where the race stands
Aug 25, 2026, 7:57 PM EDTDemocrats are favoured to control the House, 75% to 25% for Republicans; Republicans are favoured to control the Senate, 57% to 43% for Democrats.
Taken together, the single likeliest outcome is Democratic majorities in both chambers, at 40%. Congress ending up divided between the two parties is a 37% proposition.
Central estimates: 229 of 435 House seats for Democrats, a net gain of 15 on the 214 they hold now; 50 of 100 Senate seats for Democrats, a net gain of 3 on the 47 they hold now.
The national environment sits at Democrats +5.1 points on the House popular vote. That has barely moved over the past month.
Votes and seats are not the same thing: a party can win more votes nationally and still lose the chamber. Here Democrats lead the national vote in 92% of simulations but win the House in 75% — a 17-point gap that comes from how districts are drawn, not from any thumb on the scale. The national vote itself runs from D+0.6 to D+10.6 across the middle 80%.
Presidential approval has not been polled since 29 June, 57 days ago, so the model holds it flat rather than projecting it forward. 80% of simulations put the House between 209 and 249 Democratic seats, which is the honest width of this forecast 70 days out.
Written from this run’s output, not by hand — it changes when the model does.
Distribution of outcomes
200,000 simulationsHouse seatsmedian 228D/207R · 80% D 209–249 · R 186–226
Democrats win control · 218+ seats · 75%Republicans win control · 218+ seats · 25%
Senate seatsmedian 50D/50R · 80% D 46–53 · R 47–54
Republicans win control · 50+ seats · 57%Democrats win control · 51+ seats · 43%
How Congress could come out
joint outcomesDemocratic House and Senate40%
Democratic House, Republican Senate35%
Republican House and Senate22%
Republican House, Democratic Senate2%
Counted across 200,000 simulations, so the correlation between the two chambers is already in these figures. Multiplying the House and Senate probabilities together would give a different — and wrong — answer. Congress ends up divided in 37% of them.
The national environment
Generic congressional ballotnow D+3.7
Two-party margin, adjusted for house effects, likely-voter population and partisan sponsorship, then corrected for the question’s measured historical gap against the actual national vote. Plotted so that above the line favours Democrats and below favours Republicans. This is the single most important input to a midterm forecast.
Approval and favorabilitynet rating
−13.642% approve · 56% disapprove
128 polls from 39 pollsters in the active window, weighted the same way the forecast weights everything else. Different questions draw different pollsters, so gaps between two measures here are partly composition rather than opinion. Last polled Jun 29 — 57 days ago. The line ends where the polling does rather than running flat to today, so a quiet feed reads as quiet rather than as steady opinion.
Approve minus disapprove, or favorable minus unfavorable. Presidential job approval is the one that feeds the model: together with the economy it sets the fundamentals prior, which carries the forecast where polling is thin and never fully drops out. The others are shown for context and change nothing in the forecast.
Forecast over time
May 25 – Aug 25Housechance of control
Axis cropped to 70–85% to show the movement. The 50% mark that decides control sits below this range, so the lead has not changed hands over this period.
Senatechance of control
Axis cropped to 30–46% to show the movement. The 50% mark that decides control sits above this range, so the lead has not changed hands over this period.
Points before 2026-08-23 are reconstructed: the model was re-run at each past date using only polls published by then. Fundamentals and the candidate list are current rather than historical, so treat the early span as the polling story, not as a forecast published at the time. Everything from that date on was recorded live.
Where the majority turns
Tipping-point races
How often each district is the seat that delivers the 218th — a better measure of which races matter than closeness alone.
Closest races
Nearest a coin flip across all three chambers.
Every race
506 contests506 races
| Democrat | Republican | Rating | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-11 | REP | Jamie Ager | Jennifer Balkcom | R 50% | Even | R+9.7 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| TX-34 | DEM | Vicente Gonzalez | Eric Flores | R 51% | R+0.2 | R+6.6 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| IA-01 | REP | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | R 51% | R+0.2 | R+6.8 | 2 | 1.3% | Tilt R |
| MI-10 | REP | Christina Hines | Michael Bouchard Jr. | D 51% | D+0.4 | R+4.9 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt D |
| NC-01 | DEM | Don Davis | Laurie Buckhout | R 52% | R+0.6 | R+10.2 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| FL-22 | REP | Pia Dandiya | Casey Askar | D 53% | D+0.5 | R+6.9 | 1 | 1.5% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| PA-07 | REP | Bob Brooks | Ryan Mackenzie | R 53% | R+0.6 | R+1.9 | 1 | 1.4% | Tilt R |
| NY-17 | REP | Cait Conley | Mike Lawler | R 53% | R+0.5 | D+3.3 | 2 | 1.6% | Tilt R |
| FL-25 | DEM | Jared Moskowitz | Scott Singer | D 53% | D+0.9 | R+5.3 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| WA-03 | DEM | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | John Braun | R 53% | R+0.7 | R+3.3 | 2 | 1.4% | Tilt R |
| MI-07 | REP | William Lawrence | Tom Barrett | R 54% | R+0.7 | R+0.4 | 1 | 1.4% | Tilt R |
| NJ-07 | REP | Rebecca Bennett | Tom Kean Jr. | D 54% | D+0.8 | R+0.2 | 1 | 1.5% | Tilt D |
| VA-02 | REP | Elaine Luria | Jen Kiggans | D 55% | D+1.0 | D+0.7 | 1 | 1.6% | Tilt D |
| OH-07 | REP | Brian Poindexter | Max Miller | D 55% | D+0.9 | R+10.4 | 3 | 1.5% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| GA-GOV | REP | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | D 55% | D+1.0 | R+1.3 | 8 | — | Tilt D |
| FL-14 | DEM | Kathy Castor | Mike Beltran | D 55% | D+1.4 | R+8.3 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| AZ-01 | REP | Amish Shah | Jay Feely | D 56% | D+1.7 | R+1.6 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt D |
| MI-04 | REP | Sean McCann | Bill Huizenga | R 56% | R+1.6 | R+4.9 | 1 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| AZ-06 | REP | JoAnna Mendoza | Juan Ciscomani | D 56% | D+1.2 | R+0.2 | 3 | 1.8% | Tilt D |
| PA-10 | REP | Janelle Stelson | Scott Perry | R 56% | R+1.2 | R+4.7 | 3 | 1.5% | Tilt R |
| OH-09 | DEM | Marcy Kaptur | Derek Merrin | D 57% | D+1.7 | R+9.4 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| PA-01 | REP | Robert Harvie | Brian Fitzpatrick | D 58% | D+2.0 | D+1.8 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt D |
| TX-28 | DEM | Henry Cuellar | Tano Tijerina | D 58% | D+2.1 | R+5.1 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| OH-GOV | REP | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | R 58% | R+1.6 | R+10.2 | 8 | — | Tilt R |
| AK-SEN | REP | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | R 59% | R+1.7 | R+12.7 | 8 | — | Tilt RRCV |
| CO-08 | REP | Manny Rutinel | Gabe Evans | D 59% | D+2.4 | D+0.1 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt D |
| IA-03 | REP | Sarah Trone Garriott | Zach Nunn | D 60% | D+2.5 | R+3.1 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt D |
| WI-01 | REP | Mitchell Berman | Bryan Steil | R 60% | R+2.5 | R+3.6 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt R |
| OH-10 | REP | Kristina Knickerbocker | Mike Turner | R 60% | R+2.6 | R+7.0 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| NV-GOV | REP | Aaron Ford | Joe Lombardo | R 61% | R+2.9 | R+1.4 | 4 | — | Tilt R |
| IA-GOV | REP | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | D 61% | D+2.4 | R+11.8 | 7 | — | Tilt D |
| AK-GOV | REP | Tom Begich | Bernadette Wilson | R 62% | R+2.3 | R+12.7 | 3 | — | Tilt RRCV |
| TX-SEN | REP | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | R 62% | R+2.4 | R+11.5 | 16 | — | Tilt R |
| IA-02 | REP | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | R 62% | R+2.7 | R+8.4 | 1 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| SC-01 | REP | Nancy Lacore | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | R 63% | R+3.7 | R+11.8 | 0 | 0.9% | Tilt R |
| WI-03 | REP | Rebecca Cooke | Derrick Van Orden | R 63% | R+2.4 | R+6.5 | 2 | 1.3% | Tilt R |
| FL-07 | REP | Bale Dalton | Ryan Elijah | R 63% | R+3.7 | R+10.5 | 0 | 0.9% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| VA-01 | REP | Shannon Taylor | Rob Wittman | R 63% | R+3.8 | R+5.1 | 1 | 0.9% | Tilt R |
| OH-SEN | REP | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D 64% | D+2.7 | R+10.2 | 8 | — | Tilt D |
| TX-35 | REP | Johnny Garcia | Carlos De La Cruz | R 64% | R+4.1 | R+8.1 | 0 | 0.9% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| NH-GOV | REP | Cinde Warmington | Kelly Ayotte | R 66% | R+4.2 | D+4.3 | 4 | — | Lean R |
| PA-08 | DEM | Paige Cognetti | Rob Bresnahan | R 68% | R+3.7 | R+6.8 | 1 | 1.0% | Lean R |
| WI-GOV | DEM | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | D 68% | D+3.7 | R+0.2 | 5 | — | Lean D |
| ME-02 | DEM | Matthew Dunlap | Paul LePage | R 68% | R+3.9 | R+8.5 | 3 | 1.0% | Lean RRCV |
| KS-GOV | DEM | Cindy Holscher | Ty Masterson | R 69% | R+5.5 | R+15.7 | 0 | — | Lean R |
| MI-SEN | DEM | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | D 69% | D+4.2 | Even | 16 | — | Lean D |
| MT-01 | REP | Sam Forstag | Aaron Flint | R 69% | R+4.6 | R+10.4 | 1 | 0.9% | Lean R |
| CO-05 | REP | Jessica Killin | Jeff Crank | R 70% | R+5.4 | R+9.3 | 0 | 0.8% | Lean R |
| OH-15 | REP | Don Leonard | Mike Carey | R 70% | R+5.1 | R+9.1 | 1 | 0.8% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MI-GOV | DEM | Jocelyn Benson | John James | D 71% | D+4.4 | Even | 7 | — | Lean D |
| TX-23 | REP | Katy Padilla Stout | Brandon Herrera | R 71% | R+5.9 | R+12.7 | 2 | 0.7% | Lean Rredrawn |
| IA-SEN | REP | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | R 72% | R+4.5 | R+11.8 | 8 | — | Lean R |
| VT-GOV | REP | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | R 72% | R+7.4 | D+34.1 | 2 | — | Lean R |
| FL-09 | DEM | Darren Soto | Dan Green | R 72% | R+6.3 | R+14.8 | 0 | 0.7% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-GOV | REP | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | R 73% | R+5.9 | R+10.4 | 8 | — | Lean R |
| MN-01 | REP | Jake Johnson | Brad Finstad | R 73% | R+6.6 | R+11.2 | 0 | 0.7% | Lean R |
| ME-SEN | REP | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | D 74% | D+4.9 | D+8.0 | 3 | — | Lean D |
| NM-GOV | DEM | Deb Haaland | Gregg Hull | D 75% | D+7.6 | D+7.7 | 0 | — | Lean D |
| NH-SEN | DEM | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | D 75% | D+6.0 | D+4.3 | 8 | — | Lean D |
| CA-48 | DEM | Marni von Wilpert | Jim Desmond | D 76% | D+8.0 | D+4.8 | 0 | 0.9% | Lean Dredrawn |
| SC-GOV | REP | Jermaine Johnson | Alan Wilson | R 76% | R+8.9 | R+16.2 | 1 | — | Lean R |
| MO-05 | DEM | Emanuel Cleaver | Rick Brattin | R 76% | R+7.6 | R+17.3 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MO-02 | REP | Fred Wellman | Ann Wagner | R 77% | R+7.6 | R+11.2 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| CA-06 | IND | Richard Pan | Kevin Kiley | D 77% | D+11.4 | D+10.1 | 1 | 0.6% | Lean Dredrawn |
| AL-02 | DEM | Shomari Figures | Rhett Marques | R 77% | R+7.9 | R+12.7 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| OR-GOV | DEM | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | D 78% | D+8.6 | D+15.7 | 1 | — | Lean D |
| NY-01 | REP | Christopher Gallant | Nick LaLota | R 78% | R+9.4 | R+7.8 | 1 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| CA-22 | REP | Randy Villegas | David Valadao | D 78% | D+6.4 | D+3.3 | 1 | 1.3% | Lean Dredrawn |
| NH-01 | DEM | Stefany Shaheen | Anthony DiLorenzo | D 78% | D+9.0 | D+3.4 | 0 | 0.9% | Lean D |
| VA-05 | REP | Thomas Perriello | John McGuire | R 79% | R+8.4 | R+11.1 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean R |
| AZ-GOV | DEM | Katie Hobbs | Andy Biggs | D 79% | D+6.6 | R+3.8 | 8 | — | Lean D |
| NV-02 | REP | Teresa Benitez-Thompson | David Flippo | R 79% | R+9.4 | R+13.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| CO-GOV | DEM | Phil Weiser | Victor Marx | D 79% | D+9.4 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Lean D |
| FL-04 | REP | LaShonda Holloway | Aaron Bean | R 79% | R+8.7 | R+10.3 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| TX-GOV | REP | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | R 79% | R+6.2 | R+11.5 | 14 | — | Lean R |
| SC-SEN | REP | Annie Andrews | Generic Republican | R 80% | R+9.6 | R+16.2 | 0 | — | Lean R |
| NC-09 | REP | Richard Ojeda | Richard Hudson | R 80% | R+8.9 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| OH-01 | DEM | Greg Landsman | Eric Conroy | D 80% | D+8.9 | R+1.6 | 0 | 0.9% | Lean Dredrawn |
| NE-GOV | REP | Lynne Walz | Jim Pillen | R 80% | R+13.0 | R+20.2 | 1 | — | Lean R |
| FL-16 | REP | Kelly Kirschner | Sydney Gruters | R 81% | R+10.0 | R+11.4 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| TX-15 | REP | Bobby Pulido | Monica De La Cruz | R 82% | R+7.1 | R+13.8 | 2 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| AZ-05 | REP | Christopher James | Daniel Keenan | R 82% | R+10.5 | R+19.0 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| KY-06 | REP | Zach Dembo | Ralph Alvarado | R 82% | R+10.7 | R+13.9 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean R |
| CO-03 | REP | Dwayne Romero | Jeffrey Hurd | R 82% | R+9.9 | R+9.3 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| NY-03 | DEM | Tom Suozzi | Mike LiPetri | D 83% | D+10.0 | R+0.1 | 0 | 0.9% | Lean D |
| NC-SEN | REP | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D 83% | D+7.6 | R+2.5 | 11 | — | Lean D |
| WA-05 | REP | Carmela Conroy | Michael Baumgartner | R 83% | R+10.0 | R+10.6 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| NM-02 | DEM | Gabriel Vasquez | Greg Cunningham | D 83% | D+10.1 | D+0.5 | 0 | 0.8% | Lean D |
| NE-01 | REP | Christopher Backemeyer | Mike Flood | R 83% | R+8.6 | R+12.4 | 2 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| NV-01 | DEM | Dina Titus | Carrie Buck | D 83% | D+10.3 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.8% | Lean D |
| NE-02 | REP | Denise Powell | Brinker Harding | D 84% | D+11.4 | D+5.5 | 0 | 0.7% | Lean D |
| FL-11 | REP | James Pericola | Joe Strada | R 84% | R+11.5 | R+14.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MN-SEN | DEM | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | D 84% | D+9.1 | D+5.4 | 2 | — | Lean D |
| NC-13 | REP | Paul Barringer | Brad Knott | R 85% | R+10.9 | R+16.6 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-27 | REP | Eliott Rodriguez | Maria Salazar | R 85% | R+9.4 | R+10.8 | 1 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| ME-GOV | DEM | Hannah Pingree | Robert Charles | D 85% | D+8.4 | D+8.0 | 3 | — | Likely D |
| NC-07 | REP | Kimberly Hardy | David Rouzer | R 86% | R+11.3 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MN-02 | DEM | Matt Little | Eric Pratt | D 86% | D+12.4 | D+6.6 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| FL-13 | REP | Leela Gray | Anna Paulina Luna | R 86% | R+9.4 | R+11.7 | 1 | 0.4% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MI-08 | DEM | Kristen McDonald Rivet | Thomas J. Smith | D 86% | D+11.6 | R+0.7 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| NC-03 | REP | Raymond Smith | Greg Murphy | R 86% | R+11.7 | R+12.1 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CO-04 | REP | Eileen Laubacher | Lauren Boebert | R 86% | R+11.8 | R+18.5 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely R |
| GA-01 | REP | Amanda Hollowell | James Kingston | R 87% | R+12.9 | R+15.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely R |
| FL-08 | REP | Jennifer Jenkins | Mike Haridopolos | R 87% | R+12.0 | R+14.7 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-09 | REP | Justin Pearson | Brent Taylor | R 87% | R+13.2 | R+18.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NV-03 | DEM | Susie Lee | Marty O'Donnell | D 87% | D+12.2 | D+1.5 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| OH-08 | REP | Vanessa Enoch | Warren Davidson | R 87% | R+12.3 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NY-02 | REP | Patrick Halpin | Andrew Garbarino | R 88% | R+12.5 | R+10.8 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| MN-08 | REP | Trina Swanson | Peter Stauber | R 88% | R+12.5 | R+13.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| FL-02 | REP | Amanda Green | Austin Rogers | R 88% | R+13.8 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-SEN | REP | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | R 88% | R+8.8 | R+10.4 | 4 | — | Likely R |
| NH-02 | DEM | Maggie Goodlander | Lily Williams | D 88% | D+14.4 | D+5.3 | 1 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| NJ-02 | REP | Zack Mullock | Jeff Van Drew | R 89% | R+12.9 | R+10.9 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| RI-GOV | DEM | Helena Foulkes | Elaine Pelino | D 89% | D+14.1 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Likely D |
| LA-SEN | REP | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | R 89% | R+14.2 | R+21.2 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| NY-GOV | DEM | Kathy Hochul | Bruce Blakeman | D 89% | D+11.9 | D+15.7 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| GA-SEN | DEM | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | D 89% | D+9.3 | R+1.3 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| CA-13 | DEM | Adam Gray | Kevin Lincoln | D 89% | D+13.3 | D+5.2 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely Dredrawn |
| NY-19 | DEM | Josh Riley | Peter Oberacker | D 89% | D+13.4 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| TX-02 | REP | Shaun Finnie | Steve Toth | R 89% | R+14.6 | R+22.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OK-01 | REP | John Croisant | Jackson Lahmeyer | R 89% | R+14.8 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| TX-32 | REP | Dan Barrios | Jace Yarbrough | R 89% | R+14.7 | R+15.8 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AR-02 | REP | Chris Jones | French Hill | R 90% | R+13.5 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| KS-SEN | REP | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | R 90% | R+10.3 | R+15.7 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| NV-04 | DEM | Steven Horsford | Cody Whipple | D 90% | D+13.5 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| NC-06 | REP | Cyril Jefferson | Addison McDowell | R 90% | R+13.7 | R+16.8 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IN-05 | REP | James Ford | Victoria Spartz | R 90% | R+13.7 | R+16.6 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| NC-05 | REP | Chuck Hubbard | Virginia Foxx | R 90% | R+13.8 | R+17.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-05 | REP | Chaz Molder | Charlie Hatcher | R 91% | R+15.5 | R+20.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-12 | REP | Kimberly Overman | Gus Bilirakis | R 91% | R+14.3 | R+12.8 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-02 | REP | Jonathan Nez | Eli Crane | R 91% | R+14.3 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| OK-05 | REP | Jena Nelson | Stephanie Bice | R 91% | R+14.3 | R+18.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| TX-24 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-24) | Elizabeth Van Duyne | R 91% | R+14.4 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-14 | REP | Lakesha Womack | Tim Moore | R 91% | R+14.4 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-08 | REP | Bernadette Greene Placentia | Abraham Hamadeh | R 91% | R+14.8 | R+15.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| CA-45 | DEM | Derek Tran | Chuong Vo | D 91% | D+14.8 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely Dredrawn |
| SC-02 | REP | Zyon Khalifa | Joe Wilson | R 91% | R+14.8 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NY-21 | REP | Blake Gendebien | Anthony Constantino | R 91% | R+11.5 | R+19.2 | 2 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NJ-09 | DEM | Nelida Pou | Rosemary Pino | D 91% | D+14.9 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| OK-GOV | REP | Cyndi Munson | Gentner Drummond | R 91% | R+16.1 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| GA-12 | REP | Ceretta Smith | Rick Allen | R 92% | R+15.1 | R+12.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| WI-08 | REP | Rick Crosson | Tony Wied | R 92% | R+15.0 | R+15.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| WI-06 | REP | Democratic candidate (WI-06) | Glenn Grothman | R 92% | R+15.1 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| VA-07 | DEM | Eugene Vindman | Doug Ollivant | D 92% | D+15.1 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| WA-04 | REP | John Duresky | Amanda McKinney | R 92% | R+16.6 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| WI-07 | REP | Fred Clark | Michael Alfonso | R 92% | R+16.6 | R+21.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NC-10 | REP | Ashley Bell | Pat Harrigan | R 92% | R+15.4 | R+17.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MD-01 | REP | Daniel Schwartz | Andy Harris | R 92% | R+15.5 | R+16.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NJ-05 | DEM | Josh Gottheimer | Sean Kirrane | D 92% | D+15.5 | D+4.4 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| MN-GOV | DEM | Amy Klobuchar | Lisa Demuth | D 92% | D+13.4 | D+5.4 | 4 | — | Likely D |
| CT-05 | DEM | Jahana Hayes | Chris Shea | D 93% | D+15.7 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| IN-01 | DEM | Frank Mrvan | Barb Regnitz | D 93% | D+15.7 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| MI-01 | REP | Callie Barr | Jack Bergman | R 93% | R+15.7 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| KS-02 | REP | Don Coover | Derek Schmidt | R 93% | R+15.8 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| FL-21 | REP | James Martin | Brian Mast | R 93% | R+15.9 | R+14.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| WA-08 | DEM | Kim Schrier | Spencer Meline | D 93% | D+15.9 | D+6.5 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| NM-03 | DEM | Teresa Leger Fernandez | Martin Zamora | D 93% | D+15.9 | D+7.1 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| PA-17 | DEM | Chris Deluzio | Jesse Vodvarka | D 93% | D+16.0 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| OH-13 | DEM | Emilia Sykes | Carey Coleman | D 93% | D+16.0 | D+4.3 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| AL-GOV | REP | Doug Jones | Tommy Tuberville | R 93% | R+13.3 | R+29.3 | 2 | — | Likely R |
| GA-10 | REP | Pamela DeLancy | Houston Gaines | R 93% | R+17.6 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| TX-22 | REP | Marquette Greene-Scott | Trever Nehls | R 93% | R+17.9 | R+21.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-25 | DEM | Raul Ruiz | Joe Males | D 93% | D+16.4 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| TX-38 | REP | Melissa McDonough | Jon Bonck | R 93% | R+18.1 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NY-18 | DEM | Pat Ryan | Jackie Auringer | D 94% | D+16.6 | D+5.2 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| AZ-04 | DEM | Greg Stanton | Zuhdi Jasser | D 94% | D+16.6 | D+8.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| KS-03 | DEM | Sharice Davids | Eric Jenkins | D 94% | D+16.7 | D+4.6 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| NY-04 | REP | Laura Gillen | Jeanine Driscoll | D 94% | D+16.7 | D+5.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| TX-21 | REP | Kristin Hook | Mark Teixeira | R 94% | R+18.2 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-GOV | REP | Jerri Green | Marsha Blackburn | R 94% | R+19.9 | R+28.2 | 2 | — | Likely R |
| FL-26 | REP | Nicole Locklin | Mario Diaz-Balart | R 94% | R+16.8 | R+13.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-08 | DEM | Melissa Bean | Jennifer Davis | D 94% | D+18.3 | D+9.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| FL-18 | REP | Curtis Gibson | Scott Franklin | R 94% | R+16.8 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-09 | REP | Leticia Gutierrez | Alexandra Mealer | R 94% | R+18.4 | R+16.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AL-SEN | REP | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | R 94% | R+23.6 | R+29.3 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| PA-11 | REP | Nancy Mannion | Lloyd Smucker | R 94% | R+17.0 | R+21.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| GA-11 | REP | Chris Harden | John Cowan | R 94% | R+18.6 | R+22.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| TX-10 | REP | Caitlin Rourk | Chris Gober | R 94% | R+18.7 | R+20.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-04 | DEM | Patty Garcia | Lupe Castillo | D 94% | D+26.4 | D+33.7 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| PA-GOV | DEM | Josh Shapiro | Stacy Garrity | D 94% | D+16.7 | R+0.7 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| CA-01 | DEM | Mike McGuire | James Gallagher | D 94% | D+17.1 | D+14.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Dredrawn |
| MO-03 | REP | Bethany Mann | Bob Onder | R 94% | R+17.3 | R+19.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| SC-05 | REP | Mallory Dittmer | Wes Climer | R 94% | R+19.0 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| VA-06 | REP | Beth Macy | Ben Cline | R 95% | R+17.6 | R+23.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| FL-05 | REP | Rachel Grage | John Rutherford | R 95% | R+17.6 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OH-14 | REP | Maria Jukic | David Joyce | R 95% | R+17.6 | R+19.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-17 | DEM | Eric Sorensen | Dillan Vancil | D 95% | D+17.9 | D+5.9 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| MS-SEN | REP | Scott Colom | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R 95% | R+15.4 | R+21.2 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| OR-05 | REP | Janelle Bynum | Patti Adair | D 95% | D+18.1 | D+9.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| NC-08 | REP | Colby Watson | Mark Harris | R 95% | R+18.0 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MD-06 | DEM | April Delaney | Robin Ficker | D 95% | D+18.2 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| IL-06 | DEM | Sean Casten | Niki Conforti | D 95% | D+18.3 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| MI-03 | DEM | Hillary Scholten | Terri DeBoer | D 95% | D+18.4 | D+8.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| MN-06 | REP | Doug Chapin | Tom Emmer | R 95% | R+18.4 | R+19.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| CT-02 | DEM | Joe Courtney | George Austin | D 95% | D+18.5 | D+9.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| KS-04 | REP | Katy Tyndell | Ron Estes | R 95% | R+18.4 | R+23.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TX-27 | REP | Tanya Lloyd | Michael Cloud | R 96% | R+18.8 | R+20.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-05 | REP | Michael Masuda | Tom McClintock | R 96% | R+18.9 | R+19.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-16 | REP | Paul Nolley | Darin LaHood | R 96% | R+19.0 | R+22.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| MO-04 | REP | Jordan Herrera | Mark Alford | R 96% | R+19.0 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MO-06 | REP | Josh Smead | Chris Stigall | R 96% | R+21.0 | R+26.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NY-22 | DEM | John Mannion | Kailee Buller | D 96% | D+19.2 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| NY-23 | REP | Aaron Gies | Nick Langworthy | R 96% | R+19.3 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| SD-01 | REP | Nicole Gronli | Marty Jackley | R 96% | R+21.1 | R+28.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TN-07 | REP | Darden Copeland | Matt Van Epps | R 96% | R+19.4 | R+21.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CT-GOV | DEM | Ned Lamont | Ryan Fazio | D 96% | D+18.5 | D+16.5 | 2 | — | Likely D |
| CA-21 | DEM | Jim Costa | Kyle Kirkland | D 96% | D+19.4 | D+10.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Dredrawn |
| OR-04 | DEM | Valerie Hoyle | Monique Despain | D 96% | D+19.6 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| NJ-03 | DEM | Herb Conaway | Michael McGuire | D 96% | D+19.6 | D+9.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| IL-14 | DEM | Lauren Underwood | James Marter | D 96% | D+19.8 | D+7.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| IL-SEN | DEM | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | D 96% | D+21.5 | D+13.0 | 0 | — | Likely D |
| TN-08 | REP | Heidi Kuhn | David Kustoff | R 96% | R+19.8 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-31 | REP | Justin Early | John Carter | R 96% | R+19.8 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NM-SEN | DEM | Ben Ray Lujan | Larry Marker | D 96% | D+19.8 | D+7.7 | 0 | — | Likely D |
| SD-GOV | REP | Dan Ahlers | Larry Rhoden | R 96% | R+19.9 | R+28.9 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| IL-GOV | DEM | JB Pritzker | Darren Bailey | D 96% | D+17.6 | D+13.0 | 1 | — | Likely D |
| NJ-11 | DEM | Analilia Mejia | Joe Hathaway | D 96% | D+19.9 | D+10.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| TX-03 | REP | Evan Hunt | Keith Self | R 96% | R+20.0 | R+22.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-15 | REP | Robert People | Laurel Lee | R 96% | R+20.1 | R+17.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| GA-02 | DEM | Sanford Bishop | Matt Day | D 96% | D+20.1 | D+8.7 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| CA-03 | DEM | Amerish Bera | Robb Tucker | D 97% | D+20.2 | D+11.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Dredrawn |
| RI-02 | DEM | Seth Magaziner | Victor Mellor | D 97% | D+20.1 | D+9.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| CA-23 | REP | Tessa Lynn Hodge | Jay Obernolte | R 97% | R+20.2 | R+17.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-03 | REP | Seth Harp | Kat Cammack | R 97% | R+20.6 | R+19.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-47 | DEM | Dave Min | Jenny Rae Le Roux | D 97% | D+20.7 | D+12.3 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Dredrawn |
| PA-16 | REP | Justin Wagner | George Kelly | R 97% | R+20.6 | R+22.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| FL-17 | REP | Matthew Montavon | Greg Steube | R 97% | R+21.0 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-05 | REP | Ruth Torres | Lance Gooden | R 97% | R+21.0 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-06 | DEM | Chrissy Houlahan | Martin Young | D 97% | D+21.2 | D+12.7 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| AR-GOV | REP | Fredrick Love | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R 97% | R+21.3 | R+30.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-25 | REP | Dione Sims | Roger Williams | R 97% | R+21.3 | R+21.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| WI-05 | REP | Andrew Beck | Scott Fitzgerald | R 97% | R+21.4 | R+22.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe R |
| MA-SEN | DEM | Ed Markey | John Deaton | D 97% | D+22.6 | D+28.3 | 7 | — | Safe D |
| MA-09 | DEM | Bill Keating | Robert MacAllister | D 97% | D+21.4 | D+13.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| CA-49 | DEM | Mike Levin | Armen Kurdian | D 97% | D+21.4 | D+13.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-17 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-17) | Pete Sessions | R 97% | R+21.4 | R+20.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-24 | REP | Alissa Ellman | Claudia Tenney | R 97% | R+21.5 | R+22.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe R |
| NJ-SEN | DEM | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | D 97% | D+21.5 | D+8.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-11 | DEM | Jeremy Moss | Ethan Baker | D 97% | D+23.6 | D+17.7 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| TX-06 | REP | Danny Minton | Jake Ellzey | R 97% | R+21.5 | R+22.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-05 | REP | Daniel Burket | Bob Latta | R 97% | R+21.6 | R+23.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| GA-07 | REP | Haiden Moburg | Rich McCormick | R 97% | R+21.9 | R+21.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe R |
| OH-12 | REP | Jerrad Christian | Troy Balderson | R 97% | R+21.8 | R+29.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| VA-SEN | DEM | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | D 97% | D+18.8 | D+7.3 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-06 | DEM | Frank Pallone | Hillary Herzig | D 97% | D+22.0 | D+10.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| TX-14 | REP | Richard Davis | Randy Weber | R 98% | R+22.1 | R+23.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-06 | REP | Mike Croley | Johnny Garrett | R 98% | R+24.2 | R+25.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-28 | REP | Phil Ehr | Carlos Gimenez | R 98% | R+22.3 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| OR-06 | DEM | Andrea Salinas | David Russ | D 98% | D+22.4 | D+12.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-26 | DEM | Jacqui Irwin | Samuel Gallucci | D 98% | D+24.6 | D+17.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-SEN | DEM | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley | D 98% | D+22.5 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-13 | DEM | Nikki Budzinski | Jeff Wilson | D 98% | D+22.6 | D+11.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| DE-01 | DEM | Sarah McBride | Donyale Hall | D 98% | D+22.7 | D+16.3 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| AL-05 | REP | Andrew Sneed | Dale Strong | R 98% | R+22.8 | R+28.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-11 | DEM | Bill Foster | Jeffrey Walter | D 98% | D+22.8 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NM-01 | DEM | Melanie Stansbury | Ndidiamaka Okpareke | D 98% | D+23.0 | D+13.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| AR-03 | REP | Robb Ryerse | Steve Womack | R 98% | R+23.1 | R+25.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe R |
| TN-04 | REP | Victoria Broderick | Scott Desjarlais | R 98% | R+23.2 | R+21.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| VA-10 | DEM | Suhas Subramanyam | Dave Beckwith | D 98% | D+23.1 | D+11.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| TX-26 | REP | Steven Shook | Brandon Gill | R 98% | R+23.5 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-27 | DEM | George Whitesides | Jason Gibbs | D 98% | D+23.4 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| WY-GOV | REP | Kenneth Casner | Eric Barlow | R 98% | R+25.9 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-12 | REP | Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman | Craig Goldman | R 98% | R+23.6 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| KY-SEN | REP | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | R 98% | R+26.1 | R+29.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-35 | DEM | Norma Torres | Mike Cargile | D 98% | D+24.0 | D+12.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| SC-04 | REP | Courtney McClain | William Timmons | R 98% | R+24.1 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CO-07 | DEM | Brittany Pettersen | Amanda Capobianco | D 98% | D+24.0 | D+15.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| LA-06 | DEM | Democratic candidate (LA-06) | Peter Williams | R 98% | R+26.4 | R+32.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OK-SEN | REP | Jasmine Thomas | Kevin Hern | R 98% | R+26.6 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-36 | REP | Rhonda Hart | Brian Babin | R 98% | R+24.2 | R+23.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-42 | DEM | Robert Garcia | Brian Burley | D 98% | D+24.6 | D+15.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| IA-04 | REP | Dave Dawson | Chris McGowan | R 99% | R+27.5 | R+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-38 | DEM | Hilda Solis | Pedro Casas | D 99% | D+27.8 | D+17.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-08 | REP | Keith Coleman | Jessica Steinmann | R 99% | R+27.6 | R+25.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| RI-SEN | DEM | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | D 99% | D+25.4 | D+16.3 | 1 | — | Safe D |
| NY-11 | REP | Michael DeCillis | Nicole Malliotakis | R 99% | R+25.3 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| HI-GOV | DEM | Josh Green | Gary Cordery | D 99% | D+25.4 | D+25.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-04 | REP | Jason Pearce | Pat Fallon | R 99% | R+25.8 | R+23.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OR-SEN | DEM | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | D 99% | D+25.9 | D+15.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-GOV | DEM | Maura Healey | Mike Minogue | D 99% | D+23.6 | D+28.3 | 5 | — | Safe D |
| OR-02 | REP | Chris Beck | Cliff Bentz | R 99% | R+26.2 | R+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SC-07 | REP | John Vincent | Russell Fry | R 99% | R+26.1 | R+24.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| ID-02 | REP | Elinor Gilbreath | Mike Simpson | R 99% | R+26.2 | R+26.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-02 | REP | Jamee Decio | Rudy Yakym | R 99% | R+26.3 | R+25.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-09 | REP | James Graham | Erin Houchin | R 99% | R+26.2 | R+29.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MI-05 | REP | Christian Vukasovich | Timothy Walberg | R 99% | R+26.4 | R+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NY-06 | DEM | Grace Meng | Juan Pagan | D 99% | D+26.3 | D+12.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NY-20 | DEM | Paul Tonko | Ralph Ambrosio | D 99% | D+26.4 | D+16.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| UT-01 | DEM | Ben McAdams | Riley Owen | D 99% | D+29.0 | D+25.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-31 | DEM | Gilbert Cisneros | Eric Ching | D 99% | D+26.4 | D+16.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-14 | REP | Shawn Harris | Clay Fuller | R 99% | R+26.6 | R+37.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-GOV | DEM | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton | D 99% | D+19.5 | D+23.4 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| CA-39 | DEM | Mark Takano | Steve Manos | D 99% | D+26.5 | D+14.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-19 | REP | Victor Arias | Jim Schwartzel | R 99% | R+29.2 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IN-04 | REP | Joseph MacKey | Jim Baird | R 99% | R+26.8 | R+29.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-33 | DEM | Pete Aguilar | Stephanie Vargas | D 99% | D+26.7 | D+14.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CT-03 | DEM | Rosa Delauro | Christopher Lancia | D 99% | D+26.9 | D+16.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| UT-02 | REP | Peter Crosby | Blake Moore | R 99% | R+26.8 | R+30.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-50 | DEM | Scott Peters | Steve Cohen | D 99% | D+26.8 | D+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| ID-GOV | REP | Terri Pickens | Brad Little | R 99% | R+27.0 | R+35.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-04 | DEM | Madeleine Dean | Aurora Stuski | D 99% | D+27.1 | D+17.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| GA-03 | REP | Maura Keller | Brian Jack | R 99% | R+27.4 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WA-10 | DEM | Marilyn Strickland | Chris D. Chung | D 99% | D+27.8 | D+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-09 | DEM | Josh Harder | John McBride | D 99% | D+28.0 | D+15.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| AR-SEN | REP | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | R 99% | R+21.3 | R+30.4 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| WA-06 | DEM | Emily Randall | Teresa Fox | D 99% | D+27.9 | D+19.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| DE-SEN | DEM | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | D 99% | D+27.9 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IN-03 | REP | Kelly Thompson | Marlin Stutzman | R 99% | R+28.4 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-12 | DEM | Summer Lee | Leonard Fechter | D 99% | D+28.2 | D+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| KY-04 | REP | Melissa Strange | Ed Gallrein | R 99% | R+30.9 | R+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-06 | DEM | Daniel Koh | John Field | D 99% | D+31.0 | D+23.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-02 | DEM | John Olszewski | David Wallace | D 99% | D+28.3 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| LA-05 | REP | Dan McKay | Blake Miguez | R 99% | R+31.1 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AZ-09 | REP | Danielle Sterbinsky | Paul Gosar | R 99% | R+28.5 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MS-03 | REP | Michael Chiaradio | Mike Guest | R 99% | R+28.3 | R+27.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| ME-01 | DEM | Chellie Pingree | Ronald Russell | D 99% | D+28.6 | D+22.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe DRCV |
| MI-02 | REP | Benjamin Ambrose | John Moolenaar | R 99% | R+28.4 | R+29.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-06 | REP | Cynthia Wirth | Jefferson Shreve | R 99% | R+28.6 | R+32.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KS-01 | REP | Lauren Reinhold | Tracey Mann | R 99% | R+28.7 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-01 | DEM | Richard Neal | Republican candidate (MA-01) | D 99% | D+28.7 | D+16.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NY-25 | DEM | Joe Morelle | Virginia McIntyre | D 99% | D+28.7 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-03 | DEM | Kelly Morrison | Tyler Bass | D 99% | D+28.9 | D+22.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-07 | DEM | Terri Sewell | Ammie Akin | D 99% | D+29.2 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-06 | REP | Eric Yonce | Randy Fine | R 99% | R+29.0 | R+28.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-51 | DEM | Sara Jacobs | Ricardo Cabrera | D 99% | D+28.9 | D+20.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CT-01 | DEM | Luke Bronin | Amy Chai | D 99% | D+32.1 | D+24.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MT-02 | REP | Brian Miller | Troy Downing | R 99% | R+30.0 | R+29.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| FL-23 | DEM | Lois Frankel | Deborah Adeimy | D 99% | D+29.6 | D+17.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| KY-03 | DEM | Morgan McGarvey | Maria Rodriguez | D 99% | D+29.8 | D+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| UT-04 | REP | Jonathan Larsen | Mike Kennedy | R 99% | R+29.8 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| GA-08 | REP | James Cooper | Austin Scott | R 99% | R+30.0 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-14 | REP | David Bradstock | Guy Reschenthaler | R 99% | R+30.4 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-08 | REP | Mary Allen | Mark Messmer | R 99% | R+30.6 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-41 | DEM | Linda Sanchez | Mitch Clemmons | D 99% | D+30.6 | D+17.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-09 | REP | Nicholas Alex | Andrew Clyde | R 99% | R+30.7 | R+33.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OK-04 | REP | Mitchell Jacob | Tom Cole | R 99% | R+30.8 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AL-01 | REP | Clyde Jones | Jerry Carl | R 99% | R+34.1 | R+34.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-09 | REP | Rachel Wallace | Dan Meuser | R 99.5% | R+31.0 | R+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TN-02 | REP | Michaela Barnett | Tim Burchett | R 99.5% | R+31.3 | R+32.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CO-06 | DEM | Jason Crow | Khaleb Dammen | D 99.6% | D+31.4 | D+21.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-06 | REP | Keith Pilkington | Gary Palmer | R 99.6% | R+31.5 | R+34.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| ND-01 | REP | Trygve Hammer | Julie Fedorchak | R 99.6% | R+31.4 | R+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-01 | DEM | Donald Norcross | Damon Galdo | D 99.6% | D+31.7 | D+20.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-GOV | DEM | Wes Moore | Dan Cox | D 99.6% | D+27.4 | D+31.0 | 1 | — | Safe D |
| CA-46 | DEM | Lou Correa | David Pan | D 99.6% | D+31.9 | D+20.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MI-09 | REP | Ray Pooley | Lisa McClain | R 99.6% | R+31.6 | R+31.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MD-03 | DEM | Sarah Elfreth | Penny Kennedy | D 99.6% | D+32.1 | D+25.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-02 | DEM | Rick Larsen | Edwin H. Feller | D 99.6% | D+32.1 | D+24.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-07 | REP | Erik Osberg | Michelle Fischbach | R 99.6% | R+32.3 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-11 | REP | Claire Reynolds | August Pfluger | R 99.6% | R+32.2 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-SEN | REP | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | R 99.6% | R+32.4 | R+28.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WY-01 | REP | Lisa Kinney | Chuck Gray | R 99.6% | R+35.6 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-04 | REP | Matthew Gromlich | Mike Johnson | R 99.7% | R+33.0 | R+33.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NJ-04 | REP | Rachel Peace | Chris Smith | R 99.7% | R+33.4 | R+28.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NY-26 | DEM | Timothy Kennedy | Dennis Hannon | D 99.7% | D+33.0 | D+21.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-06 | REP | Malcolm Ritchie | Michael Rulli | R 99.7% | R+33.0 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-15 | REP | Raymond Bilger | Glenn Thompson | R 99.7% | R+33.3 | R+37.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MS-02 | DEM | Bennie Thompson | Ron Eller | D 99.7% | D+33.4 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-03 | REP | Anna Golladay | Chuck Fleischmann | R 99.7% | R+33.3 | R+34.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-24 | DEM | Salud Carbajal | Robert Smith | D 99.7% | D+33.5 | D+27.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-10 | DEM | Bradley Schneider | Republican candidate (IL-10) | D 99.7% | D+33.5 | D+23.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-02 | DEM | Jared Huffman | Robin Littau | D 99.7% | D+34.2 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MI-06 | DEM | Debbie Dingell | Heather Smiley | D 99.7% | D+34.1 | D+25.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MS-01 | REP | Cliff Johnson | Trent Kelly | R 99.7% | R+33.9 | R+35.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-52 | DEM | Juan Vargas | Jeff Belle | D 99.7% | D+34.7 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-12 | DEM | Adam Hamawy | Gregg Mele | D 99.7% | D+37.3 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-20 | REP | Sandra Van Scotter | Vince Fong | R 99.7% | R+33.7 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| LA-01 | REP | Lauren Jewett | Steve Scalise | R 99.7% | R+34.2 | R+39.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| LA-03 | REP | Tia Lebrun | Clay Higgins | R 99.8% | R+34.3 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MA-03 | DEM | Lori Trahan | Gary Grossi | D 99.8% | D+34.6 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-16 | DEM | Veronica Escobar | Republican candidate (TX-16) | D 99.8% | D+35.1 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-01 | REP | Gay Valimont | Jimmy Patronis | R 99.8% | R+36.1 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| HI-02 | DEM | Jill Tokuda | Brenton Awa | D 99.8% | D+35.9 | D+24.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-04 | DEM | Jake Auchincloss | Republican candidate (MA-04) | D 99.8% | D+35.7 | D+22.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-05 | DEM | Adrian Boafo | Chris Chaffee | D 99.8% | D+39.8 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| RI-01 | DEM | Gabriel Amo | Republican candidate (RI-01) | D 99.8% | D+36.5 | D+24.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-07 | DEM | Elizabeth Fletcher | Alexander Hale | D 99.8% | D+36.3 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-15 | REP | Jennifer Todd | Mary Miller | R 99.8% | R+36.0 | R+39.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| UT-03 | REP | Kent Udell | Celeste Maloy | R 99.8% | R+36.9 | R+42.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WY-SEN | REP | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | R 99.8% | R+40.4 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| HI-01 | DEM | Ed Case | Maxwell Frazier | D 99.8% | D+36.7 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-01 | DEM | Suzan DelBene | Mary Silva | D 99.8% | D+37.2 | D+30.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WV-02 | REP | Ahsan Parsi | Riley Moore | R 99.8% | R+36.2 | R+39.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MO-07 | REP | Missi Hesketh | Eric Burlison | R 99.9% | R+37.4 | R+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-04 | REP | Tamara Wilson | Jim Jordan | R 99.9% | R+38.6 | R+42.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MA-02 | DEM | Jim McGovern | Republican candidate (MA-02) | D 99.9% | D+38.5 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-02 | REP | Jennifer Mazzuckelli | David Taylor | R 99.9% | R+38.5 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CT-04 | DEM | Jim Himes | Michael Goldstein | D 99.9% | D+38.3 | D+26.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-28 | DEM | Judy Chu | April Verlato | D 99.9% | D+38.8 | D+28.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-12 | REP | Julie Fortier | Mike Bost | R 99.9% | R+38.9 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-05 | DEM | Mary Scanlon | Melvin Johnakin | D 99.9% | D+39.3 | D+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-32 | DEM | Brad Sherman | Larry Thompson | D 99.9% | D+39.3 | D+28.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-10 | DEM | Maxwell Frost | Stuart Farber | D 99.9% | D+40.3 | D+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-13 | DEM | Jasmine Clark | Jonathan Chavez | D 99.9% | D+44.7 | D+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NC-02 | DEM | Deborah Ross | Eugene Douglass | D 99.9% | D+39.8 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| SC-06 | DEM | Jim Clyburn | John Peterson | D 99.9% | D+39.9 | D+25.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WV-SEN | REP | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | R 99.9% | R+40.0 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AR-04 | REP | James Russell | Bruce Westerman | R 99.9% | R+40.6 | R+39.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-02 | DEM | Donna Miller | Calvin Coleman | D 99.9% | D+45.5 | D+35.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-13 | REP | Elizabeth Farnham | John Joyce | R 99.9% | R+40.6 | R+45.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| VA-09 | REP | Joy Powers | Morgan Griffith | R 99.9% | R+40.6 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AZ-07 | DEM | Adelita Grijalva | Daniel Butierez | D 99.9% | D+40.5 | D+25.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-09 | DEM | Daniel Biss | John Elleson | D 99.9% | D+45.4 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-02 | REP | Megan Wingfield | Brett Guthrie | R 99.9% | R+41.6 | R+40.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MS-04 | REP | Jeffrey Hulum | Mike Ezell | R 99.9% | R+42.6 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SC-03 | REP | Eunice Lehmacher | Sheri Biggs | R 99.9% | R+42.1 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WV-01 | REP | Vince George | Carol Miller | R 99.9% | R+42.5 | R+44.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OK-03 | REP | Jules Roberson | Frank Lucas | R 99.9% | R+42.6 | R+44.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-13 | REP | Mark Nair | Ronny Jackson | R 99.9% | R+41.6 | R+45.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-10 | DEM | Mark DeSaulnier | Jeff Frese | D 100.0% | D+43.6 | D+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-08 | DEM | Stephen Lynch | Gavin Solomon | D 100.0% | D+43.6 | D+29.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-04 | DEM | Betty McCollum | Paul Wikstrom | D 100.0% | D+44.1 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OR-01 | DEM | Suzanne Bonamici | Barbara Kahl | D 100.0% | D+44.7 | D+39.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-04 | DEM | Jennifer McClellan | Robert Murray | D 100.0% | D+43.0 | D+34.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-03 | REP | Lee McInnis | Mike Rogers | R 100.0% | R+46.3 | R+45.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AR-01 | REP | Terri Green | Rick Crawford | R 100.0% | R+45.1 | R+45.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-19 | REP | Kyle Rable | Tom Sell | R 100.0% | R+49.3 | R+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-19 | DEM | Jimmy Panetta | Peter Verbica | D 100.0% | D+44.7 | D+37.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-03 | DEM | Bobby Scott | Edwin Rivera | D 100.0% | D+45.7 | D+36.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-01 | REP | Kaylee Peterson | Russ Fulcher | R 100.0% | R+46.0 | R+44.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KY-01 | REP | Drew Williams | James Comer | R 100.0% | R+46.6 | R+46.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NE-03 | REP | Becky Stille | Adrian Smith | R 100.0% | R+49.5 | R+53.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-18 | DEM | Zoe Lofgren | Shane Lewis | D 100.0% | D+47.7 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-02 | DEM | Joe Neguse | Kelley Dennison | D 100.0% | D+45.8 | D+41.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-03 | DEM | Delia Ramirez | Angel Oakley | D 100.0% | D+50.0 | D+34.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-05 | DEM | Mike Quigley | Tom Hanson | D 100.0% | D+46.5 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-20 | DEM | Joaquin Castro | Edgardo Baez | D 100.0% | D+46.7 | D+32.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-33 | DEM | Colin Allred | Patrick Gillespie | D 100.0% | D+50.0 | D+36.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-11 | DEM | James Walkinshaw | Arthur Purves | D 100.0% | D+48.0 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-08 | DEM | John Garamendi | Rudy Recile | D 100.0% | D+49.6 | D+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-30 | DEM | Laura Friedman | Scott Alan Meyers | D 100.0% | D+49.9 | D+42.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-01 | DEM | Jonathan Jackson | Christian Maxwell | D 100.0% | D+49.5 | D+35.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IN-07 | DEM | Andre Carson | Felipe Rios | D 100.0% | D+47.9 | D+42.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-13 | DEM | Donavan McKinney | T.P. Nykoriak | D 100.0% | D+56.2 | D+44.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MO-08 | REP | Christopher Reichard | Jason Smith | R 100.0% | R+49.7 | R+53.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NC-04 | DEM | Valerie Foushee | Mahesh Ganorkar | D 100.0% | D+49.2 | D+46.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-08 | DEM | Rob Menendez | Republican candidate (NJ-08) | D 100.0% | D+49.0 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-03 | DEM | Joyce Beatty | Republican candidate (OH-03) | D 100.0% | D+49.8 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| PA-02 | DEM | Brendan Boyle | Jessica Arriaga | D 100.0% | D+50.8 | D+38.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-01 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-01) | Nathaniel Moran | R 100.0% | R+49.6 | R+48.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-29 | DEM | Sylvia Garcia | Martha Fierro | D 100.0% | D+49.6 | D+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VT-01 | DEM | Rebecca Balint | Gerald Malloy | D 100.0% | D+38.8 | D+34.1 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| WA-09 | DEM | Adam Smith | Doug Basler | D 100.0% | D+51.6 | D+43.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WI-02 | DEM | Mark Pocan | (no Republican filed) | D 100.0% | D+48.7 | D+41.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-16 | DEM | Sam Liccardo | Peter Sundin Soulé | D 100.0% | D+58.1 | D+51.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-17 | DEM | Rohit Khanna | Ritesh Tandon | D 100.0% | D+56.2 | D+43.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-36 | DEM | Ted Lieu | Houston Brignano | D 100.0% | D+49.6 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-44 | DEM | Nanette Barragan | Genevieve Angel | D 100.0% | D+56.5 | D+41.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-01 | DEM | Melat Kiros | Christy Peterson | D 100.0% | D+65.7 | D+59.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| FL-20 | DEM | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | Brent Andersen | D 100.0% | D+55.9 | D+40.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-24 | DEM | Oliver Gilbert | Te Brown | D 100.0% | D+58.2 | D+43.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-06 | DEM | Lucia McBath | Kevin Martin | D 100.0% | D+54.5 | D+50.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-05 | REP | Ned Pillersdorf | Harold Rogers | R 100.0% | R+61.9 | R+63.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-02 | DEM | Troy Carter | Republican candidate (LA-02) | D 100.0% | D+58.3 | D+50.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NC-12 | DEM | Alma Adams | John Codiga | D 100.0% | D+53.7 | D+48.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NY-14 | DEM | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Diamant Hysenaj | D 100.0% | D+55.0 | D+38.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-16 | DEM | George Latimer | Joseph Cinquemani | D 100.0% | D+52.5 | D+36.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OK-02 | REP | Erik Terwey | Josh Brecheen | R 100.0% | R+51.5 | R+55.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-03 | DEM | Maxine Dexter | Loran Ayles | D 100.0% | D+52.2 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-01 | REP | Kristi Burke | Diana Harshbarger | R 100.0% | R+52.7 | R+57.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-30 | DEM | Frederick Haynes | Sholdon Daniels | D 100.0% | D+61.0 | D+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| WI-04 | DEM | Gwen Moore | Tim Rogers | D 100.0% | D+57.6 | D+53.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MT-SEN | REP | Alani Bankhead | Kurt Alme | R 100.0% | R+29.1 | R+19.3 | 8 | — | Safe RIND 2% |
| AK-01 | REP | (No Democrat) | Nick Begich III | R 100.0% | R+11.2 | R+12.7 | 3 | 0.2% | Safe R |
| AL-04 | REP | Amanda Pusczek | Robert Aderholt | R 100.0% | R+63.8 | R+65.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AZ-03 | DEM | Yassamin Ansari | Kirt Burgess | D 100.0% | D+61.0 | D+43.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-04 | DEM | Mike Thompson | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+27.6 | D+16.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-07 | DEM | Doris Matsui | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+26.1 | D+15.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-11 | DEM | Scott Wiener | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+80.4 | D+72.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-12 | DEM | Lateefah Simon | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+87.7 | D+79.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-14 | DEM | Aisha Wahab | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+52.3 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-15 | DEM | Kevin Mullin | Charles Hoelter | D 100.0% | D+66.5 | D+52.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-29 | DEM | Luz Rivas | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+55.3 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-34 | DEM | Jimmy Gomez | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+74.7 | D+56.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-37 | DEM | Sydney Kamlager-Dove | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+84.7 | D+65.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-40 | REP | (no Democrat — top-two) | Ken Calvert | D 100.0% | R+9.8 | R+11.1 | 0 | 0.5% | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-43 | DEM | Maxine Waters | Cristian Morales | D 100.0% | D+71.4 | D+54.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-04 | DEM | Henry Johnson | Jim Duffie | D 100.0% | D+65.4 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-05 | DEM | Nikema Williams | Republican candidate (GA-05) | D 100.0% | D+75.0 | D+73.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-07 | DEM | La Shawn Ford | Chad Koppie | D 100.0% | D+80.7 | D+68.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-05 | DEM | Katherine Clark | Republican candidate (MA-05) | D 100.0% | D+59.4 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-07 | DEM | Ayanna Pressley | Republican candidate (MA-07) | D 100.0% | D+84.4 | D+67.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-04 | DEM | Glenn Ivey | Republican candidate (MD-04) | D 100.0% | D+88.4 | D+77.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-07 | DEM | Kweisi Mfume | Republican candidate (MD-07) | D 100.0% | D+70.2 | D+61.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-08 | DEM | Jamie Raskin | Cheryl Riley | D 100.0% | D+70.7 | D+59.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-12 | DEM | Rashida Tlaib | James D. Hooper | D 100.0% | D+58.6 | D+42.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-05 | DEM | Ilhan Omar | John Nagel | D 100.0% | D+65.5 | D+64.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MO-01 | DEM | Wesley Bell | Paul Berry | D 100.0% | D+60.9 | D+59.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-10 | DEM | Lamonica McIver | Carmen Bucco | D 100.0% | D+70.6 | D+52.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-05 | DEM | Gregory Meeks | George Marsh | D 100.0% | D+65.9 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-07 | DEM | Claire Valdez | Melvin Rivera | D 100.0% | D+65.6 | D+51.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-08 | DEM | Hakeem Jeffries | Lewis Mizrahi | D 100.0% | D+65.6 | D+47.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-09 | DEM | Yvette Clarke | Joel Anabilah-Azumah | D 100.0% | D+61.6 | D+44.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-10 | DEM | Brad Lander | Jennifer Moore | D 100.0% | D+80.4 | D+64.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-12 | DEM | Micah Lasher | Caroline Shinkle | D 100.0% | D+78.4 | D+67.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-13 | DEM | Darializa Avila Chevalier | Republican candidate (NY-13) | D 100.0% | D+82.3 | D+65.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-15 | DEM | Ritchie Torres | Republican candidate (NY-15) | D 100.0% | D+74.1 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-11 | DEM | Shontel Brown | Mike Kirchner | D 100.0% | D+61.5 | D+56.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| PA-03 | DEM | Chris Rabb | Alexander Schnell | D 100.0% | D+81.9 | D+79.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-18 | DEM | Christian Menefee | Republican candidate (TX-18) | D 100.0% | D+73.7 | D+58.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-37 | DEM | Greg Casar | Lauren Pena | D 100.0% | D+69.1 | D+59.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-08 | DEM | Don Beyer | Tony Sabio | D 100.0% | D+63.9 | D+52.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-07 | DEM | Pramila Jayapal | Nirav Sheth | D 100.0% | D+78.1 | D+77.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-SEN | REP | (No Democrat) | Jim Risch | R 100.0% | R+39.9 | R+35.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NE-SEN | REP | (No Democrat) | Pete Ricketts | R 100.0% | R+21.4 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SD-SEN | REP | (No Democrat) | Mike Rounds | R 100.0% | R+29.3 | R+28.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |