Democrats are favoured to control the House, 90% to 10% for Republicans; Democrats are favoured to control the Senate, 55% to 45% for Republicans.
Taken together, the single likeliest outcome is Democratic majorities in both chambers, at 54%. Congress ending up divided between the two parties is a 36% proposition.
Central estimates: 238 of 435 House seats for Democrats, a net gain of 24 on the 214 they hold now; 51 of 100 Senate seats for Democrats, a net gain of 4 on the 47 they hold now.
The national environment sits at Democrats +7.1 points on the House popular vote. It has moved 1.4 points toward Democrats over the past month.
Votes and seats are not the same thing: a party can win more votes nationally and still lose the chamber. Here Democrats lead the national vote in 98% of simulations but win the House in 90% — a 9-point gap that comes from how districts are drawn, not from any thumb on the scale. The national vote itself runs from D+3.6 to D+12.7 across the middle 80%.
80% of simulations put the House between 217 and 259 Democratic seats, which is the honest width of this forecast 24 days out.
Written from this run’s output, not by hand — it changes when the model does.
Every contest the model currently projects inside the margin below, closest first. Selected on the projected margin rather than the odds: a narrow lead early and a narrow lead late are the same margin and very different probabilities, and the question here is how close the candidates are.
The margin is this site’s projection, not a single poll: it blends the polling with the district’s fundamentals, so a race marked no polls is one where no public survey has been published and the estimate rests on the fundamentals alone. Those are worth watching precisely because there is least to go on.
Re-running the model without them, the polls published since Oct 3 are worth D +1.2 on House control, D +0.3 on the Senate and D +0.7 on the national environment.
Each figure is the model re-run with that race’s new polls held out, so it is measured rather than inferred. Contributions do not sum to the total, because polls in the same race interact. It says what changed, not why.
No summary this cycle. The headlines below are what was gathered.
Counted across 200,000 simulations, so the correlation between the two chambers is already in these figures. Multiplying the House and Senate probabilities together would give a different — and wrong — answer. Congress ends up divided in 36% of them.
Two-party margin, adjusted for house effects, likely-voter population and partisan sponsorship, then corrected for the question’s measured historical gap against the actual national vote. Plotted so that above the line favours Democrats and below favours Republicans. This is the single most important input to a midterm forecast.
37 polls from 19 pollsters in the active window, weighted the same way the forecast weights everything else. Different questions draw different pollsters, so gaps between two measures here are partly composition rather than opinion. Last polled Oct 6.
Approve minus disapprove, or favorable minus unfavorable. Presidential job approval is the one that feeds the model: together with the economy it sets the fundamentals prior, which carries the forecast where polling is thin and never fully drops out. The others are shown for context and change nothing in the forecast.
Axis cropped to 68–95% to show the movement. The 50% mark that decides control sits below this range, so the lead has not changed hands over this period.
Points before 2026-08-23 are reconstructed: the model was re-run at each past date using only polls published by then. Fundamentals and the candidate list are current rather than historical, so treat the early span as the polling story, not as a forecast published at the time. Everything from that date on was recorded live.
How often each district is the seat that delivers the 218th — a better measure of which races matter than closeness alone.
The same rule as the watchlist above, applied to the governorships.
| Democrat | Republican | Rating | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA-GOV | REP | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | D 51% | D+0.1 | R+1.3 | 8 | — | Tilt D |
| IA-01 | REP | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | D 51% | D+0.1 | R+6.8 | 2 | 1.3% | Tilt D |
| NY-21 | REP | Blake Gendebien | Anthony Constantino | R 52% | R+0.4 | R+19.2 | 3 | 1.3% | Tilt R |
| FL-07 | REP | Bale Dalton | Ryan Elijah | R 52% | R+0.6 | R+10.5 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| MI-04 | REP | Sean McCann | Bill Huizenga | R 52% | R+0.6 | R+4.9 | 1 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| VA-01 | REP | Shannon Taylor | Rob Wittman | R 54% | R+0.6 | R+5.1 | 2 | 1.3% | Tilt R |
| NV-GOV | REP | Aaron Ford | Joe Lombardo | R 54% | R+0.8 | R+1.4 | 6 | — | Tilt R |
| MI-07 | REP | William Lawrence | Tom Barrett | D 55% | D+0.8 | R+0.4 | 1 | 1.5% | Tilt D |
| IA-02 | REP | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | R 55% | R+0.9 | R+8.4 | 1 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| SC-01 | REP | Nancy Lacore | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | R 56% | R+1.3 | R+11.8 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt R |
| OH-10 | REP | Kristina Knickerbocker | Mike Turner | R 56% | R+1.2 | R+7.0 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| WI-03 | REP | Rebecca Cooke | Derrick Van Orden | R 56% | R+1.0 | R+6.5 | 2 | 1.2% | Tilt R |
| MI-10 | REP | Christina Hines | Michael Bouchard Jr. | D 56% | D+1.3 | R+4.9 | 1 | 1.4% | Tilt D |
| TX-SEN | REP | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | R 57% | R+1.1 | R+11.5 | 23 | — | Tilt R |
| PA-10 | REP | Janelle Stelson | Scott Perry | D 57% | D+1.2 | R+4.7 | 4 | 1.6% | Tilt D |
| OH-07 | REP | Brian Poindexter | Max Miller | D 58% | D+1.3 | R+10.4 | 3 | 1.6% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| PA-07 | REP | Bob Brooks | Ryan Mackenzie | D 58% | D+1.6 | R+1.9 | 2 | 1.5% | Tilt D |
| MT-01 | REP | Sam Forstag | Aaron Flint | R 58% | R+1.4 | R+10.4 | 2 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| WI-01 | REP | Mitchell Berman | Bryan Steil | R 58% | R+1.3 | R+3.6 | 2 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| IA-SEN | REP | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | R 59% | R+1.6 | R+11.8 | 13 | — | Tilt R |
| AZ-06 | REP | JoAnna Mendoza | Juan Ciscomani | D 60% | D+1.6 | R+0.2 | 3 | 1.8% | Tilt D |
| AK-GOV | REP | Tom Begich | Bernadette Wilson | R 60% | R+1.7 | R+12.7 | 3 | — | Tilt RRCV |
| PA-08 | DEM | Paige Cognetti | Rob Bresnahan | R 61% | R+1.8 | R+6.8 | 1 | 1.0% | Tilt R |
| TX-35 | REP | Johnny Garcia | Carlos De La Cruz | R 61% | R+2.2 | R+8.1 | 1 | 0.9% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| KS-SEN | REP | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | R 61% | R+1.7 | R+15.7 | 3 | — | Tilt R |
| CO-05 | REP | Jessica Killin | Jeff Crank | R 61% | R+2.4 | R+9.3 | 0 | 0.9% | Tilt R |
| TX-34 | DEM | Vicente Gonzalez | Eric Flores | D 61% | D+1.9 | R+6.6 | 1 | 1.7% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| NC-11 | REP | Jamie Ager | Jennifer Balkcom | D 63% | D+3.0 | R+9.7 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| OH-SEN | REP | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D 64% | D+2.3 | R+10.2 | 13 | — | Tilt D |
| FL-25 | DEM | Jared Moskowitz | Scott Singer | D 64% | D+3.1 | R+5.3 | 0 | 1.4% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| WA-03 | DEM | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | John Braun | D 64% | D+2.3 | R+3.3 | 3 | 1.9% | Tilt D |
| OH-09 | DEM | Marcy Kaptur | Derek Merrin | D 64% | D+2.6 | R+9.4 | 1 | 1.7% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| FL-22 | REP | Pia Dandiya | Casey Askar | D 65% | D+2.9 | R+6.9 | 1 | 1.6% | Lean Dredrawn |
| NJ-07 | REP | Rebecca Bennett | Tom Kean Jr. | D 65% | D+2.9 | R+0.2 | 1 | 1.6% | Lean D |
| FL-14 | DEM | Kathy Castor | Mike Beltran | D 66% | D+3.6 | R+8.3 | 0 | 1.3% | Lean Dredrawn |
| IA-03 | REP | Sarah Trone Garriott | Zach Nunn | D 66% | D+3.6 | R+3.1 | 0 | 1.4% | Lean D |
| PA-01 | REP | Robert Harvie | Brian Fitzpatrick | D 66% | D+3.0 | D+1.8 | 1 | 1.7% | Lean D |
| NC-01 | DEM | Don Davis | Laurie Buckhout | D 66% | D+3.0 | R+10.2 | 1 | 1.7% | Lean Dredrawn |
| FL-09 | DEM | Darren Soto | Dan Green | R 67% | R+3.8 | R+14.8 | 0 | 0.7% | Lean Rredrawn |
| TX-23 | REP | Katy Padilla Stout | Brandon Herrera | R 67% | R+3.9 | R+12.7 | 2 | 0.7% | Lean Rredrawn |
| AZ-01 | REP | Amish Shah | Jay Feely | D 68% | D+4.2 | R+1.6 | 1 | 1.4% | Lean D |
| AK-SEN | REP | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | R 68% | R+3.0 | R+12.7 | 8 | — | Lean RRCV |
| TX-GOV | REP | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | R 68% | R+3.1 | R+11.5 | 22 | — | Lean R |
| ME-02 | DEM | Matthew Dunlap | Paul LePage | R 69% | R+3.5 | R+8.5 | 3 | 0.7% | Lean RRCV |
| VA-02 | REP | Elaine Luria | Jen Kiggans | D 69% | D+3.6 | D+0.7 | 1 | 1.7% | Lean D |
| OH-GOV | REP | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | D 69% | D+3.5 | R+10.2 | 10 | — | Lean D |
| FL-GOV | REP | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | R 70% | R+3.6 | R+10.4 | 9 | — | Lean R |
| WI-GOV | DEM | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | D 70% | D+3.5 | R+0.2 | 9 | — | Lean D |
| AL-02 | DEM | Shomari Figures | Rhett Marques | R 70% | R+4.7 | R+12.7 | 0 | 0.7% | Lean Rredrawn |
| OH-15 | REP | Don Leonard | Mike Carey | R 70% | R+3.4 | R+9.1 | 2 | 0.7% | Lean Rredrawn |
| CO-08 | REP | Manny Rutinel | Gabe Evans | D 70% | D+4.7 | D+0.1 | 0 | 1.4% | Lean D |
| TX-28 | DEM | Henry Cuellar | Tano Tijerina | D 71% | D+4.8 | R+5.1 | 1 | 1.4% | Lean Dredrawn |
| NE-01 | REP | Christopher Backemeyer | Mike Flood | R 71% | R+3.5 | R+12.4 | 3 | 0.6% | Lean R |
| MO-02 | REP | Fred Wellman | Ann Wagner | R 72% | R+5.0 | R+11.2 | 1 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| AR-02 | REP | Chris Jones | French Hill | R 72% | R+4.2 | R+15.2 | 1 | 0.7% | Lean R |
| SC-GOV | REP | Jermaine Johnson | Alan Wilson | R 72% | R+6.2 | R+16.2 | 1 | — | Lean R |
| NC-09 | REP | Richard Ojeda | Richard Hudson | R 73% | R+5.4 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MN-01 | REP | Jake Johnson | Brad Finstad | R 73% | R+4.3 | R+11.2 | 1 | 0.6% | Lean R |
| FL-04 | REP | LaShonda Holloway | Aaron Bean | R 73% | R+5.5 | R+10.3 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| OR-GOV | DEM | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | D 74% | D+4.4 | D+15.7 | 3 | — | Lean D |
| KS-GOV | DEM | Cindy Holscher | Ty Masterson | R 74% | R+4.2 | R+15.7 | 3 | — | Lean R |
| SC-SEN | REP | Annie Andrews | Generic Republican | R 74% | R+6.1 | R+16.2 | 0 | — | Lean R |
| MO-05 | DEM | Emanuel Cleaver | Rick Brattin | R 75% | R+5.8 | R+17.3 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NV-02 | REP | Teresa Benitez-Thompson | David Flippo | R 75% | R+6.4 | R+13.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| FL-16 | REP | Kelly Kirschner | Sydney Gruters | R 75% | R+6.8 | R+11.4 | 1 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| KY-06 | REP | Zach Dembo | Ralph Alvarado | D 76% | D+5.7 | R+13.9 | 3 | 1.5% | Lean D |
| VA-05 | REP | Thomas Perriello | John McGuire | R 76% | R+4.9 | R+11.1 | 1 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| NY-17 | REP | Cait Conley | Mike Lawler | D 76% | D+4.6 | D+3.3 | 3 | 2.1% | Lean D |
| NY-01 | REP | Christopher Gallant | Nick LaLota | R 76% | R+7.3 | R+7.8 | 1 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| MN-SEN | DEM | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | D 77% | D+5.0 | D+5.4 | 6 | — | Lean D |
| ME-SEN | REP | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | D 77% | D+4.7 | D+8.0 | 13 | — | Lean D |
| MI-SEN | DEM | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | D 77% | D+5.0 | Even | 27 | — | Lean D |
| NC-07 | REP | Kimberly Hardy | David Rouzer | R 78% | R+6.8 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NM-GOV | DEM | Deb Haaland | Gregg Hull | D 78% | D+10.3 | D+7.7 | 1 | — | Lean D |
| AZ-05 | REP | Christopher James | Daniel Keenan | R 79% | R+7.6 | R+19.0 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| WA-05 | REP | Carmela Conroy | Michael Baumgartner | R 79% | R+7.3 | R+10.6 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean R |
| TX-15 | REP | Bobby Pulido | Monica De La Cruz | D 80% | D+5.8 | R+13.8 | 4 | 1.8% | Lean Dredrawn |
| NC-13 | REP | Paul Barringer | Brad Knott | R 80% | R+7.5 | R+16.6 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| CO-03 | REP | Dwayne Romero | Jeffrey Hurd | R 80% | R+7.6 | R+9.3 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean R |
| IA-GOV | REP | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | D 81% | D+6.1 | R+11.8 | 15 | — | Lean D |
| FL-11 | REP | James Pericola | Joe Strada | R 81% | R+8.6 | R+14.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-13 | REP | Leela Gray | Anna Paulina Luna | R 81% | R+5.7 | R+11.7 | 2 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| CA-06 | IND | Richard Pan | Kevin Kiley | D 82% | D+11.8 | D+10.1 | 1 | 0.7% | Lean Dredrawn |
| MI-GOV | DEM | Jocelyn Benson | John James | D 82% | D+6.2 | Even | 16 | — | Lean D |
| NH-GOV | REP | Cinde Warmington | Kelly Ayotte | R 82% | R+6.5 | D+4.3 | 8 | — | Lean R |
| NE-GOV | REP | Lynne Walz+ Brett Lindstrom (I) | Jim Pillen | R 83% | R+11.8 | R+20.2 | 1 | — | Lean RIND on ballot |
| AZ-GOV | DEM | Katie Hobbs | Andy Biggs | D 83% | D+6.5 | R+3.8 | 10 | — | Lean D |
| NC-03 | REP | Raymond Smith | Greg Murphy | R 83% | R+8.5 | R+12.1 | 0 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-08 | REP | Jennifer Jenkins | Mike Haridopolos | R 83% | R+8.5 | R+14.7 | 0 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| GA-01 | REP | Amanda Hollowell | James Kingston | R 84% | R+9.6 | R+15.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| FL-SEN | REP | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | R 84% | R+6.3 | R+10.4 | 10 | — | Lean R |
| FL-27 | REP | Eliott Rodriguez | Maria Salazar | R 84% | R+6.5 | R+10.8 | 2 | 0.2% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-02 | REP | Amanda Green | Austin Rogers | R 85% | R+10.1 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-22 | REP | Randy Villegas | David Valadao | D 86% | D+8.0 | D+3.3 | 1 | 1.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| NH-01 | DEM | Stefany Shaheen | Anthony DiLorenzo | D 87% | D+9.9 | D+3.4 | 1 | 1.0% | Likely D |
| LA-SEN | REP | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | R 87% | R+11.0 | R+21.2 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| CO-GOV | DEM | Phil Weiser+ Greg Lopez (I) | Victor Marx | D 87% | D+11.0 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Likely DIND on ballot |
| NC-06 | REP | Cyril Jefferson | Addison McDowell | R 87% | R+10.2 | R+16.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MN-08 | REP | Trina Swanson | Peter Stauber | R 87% | R+10.2 | R+13.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| OH-08 | REP | Vanessa Enoch | Warren Davidson | R 87% | R+10.3 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-14 | REP | Lakesha Womack | Tim Moore | R 88% | R+10.5 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OK-01 | REP | John Croisant | Jackson Lahmeyer | R 88% | R+11.6 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| CO-04 | REP | Eileen Laubacher | Lauren Boebert | R 88% | R+8.4 | R+18.5 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NC-05 | REP | Chuck Hubbard | Virginia Foxx | R 88% | R+10.8 | R+17.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-SEN | REP | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D 89% | D+8.2 | R+2.5 | 17 | — | Likely D |
| TX-32 | REP | Dan Barrios | Jace Yarbrough | R 89% | R+11.8 | R+15.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NY-02 | REP | Patrick Halpin | Andrew Garbarino | R 89% | R+10.8 | R+10.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| TX-02 | REP | Shaun Finnie | Steve Toth | R 89% | R+12.0 | R+22.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NJ-02 | REP | Zack Mullock | Jeff Van Drew | R 89% | R+11.0 | R+10.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| CA-48 | DEM | Marni von Wilpert | Jim Desmond | D 89% | D+10.2 | D+4.8 | 2 | 1.0% | Likely Dredrawn |
| MN-GOV | DEM | Amy Klobuchar | Lisa Demuth | D 89% | D+9.1 | D+5.4 | 5 | — | Likely D |
| FL-12 | REP | Kimberly Overman | Gus Bilirakis | R 89% | R+11.1 | R+12.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OK-05 | REP | Jena Nelson | Stephanie Bice | R 89% | R+11.2 | R+18.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| TX-24 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-24) | Elizabeth Van Duyne | R 89% | R+11.3 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-05 | REP | Chaz Molder | Charlie Hatcher | R 90% | R+12.3 | R+20.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| SC-02 | REP | Zyon Khalifa | Joe Wilson | R 90% | R+11.3 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| IN-05 | REP | James Ford | Victoria Spartz | R 90% | R+11.7 | R+16.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NH-SEN | DEM | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | D 90% | D+9.1 | D+4.3 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| TN-09 | REP | Justin Pearson | Brent Taylor | R 90% | R+9.8 | R+18.4 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| GA-12 | REP | Ceretta Smith | Rick Allen | R 90% | R+11.7 | R+12.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NE-02 | REP | Denise Powell | Brinker Harding | D 90% | D+11.8 | D+5.5 | 1 | 0.8% | Likely D |
| OH-01 | DEM | Greg Landsman | Eric Conroy | D 91% | D+9.5 | R+1.6 | 1 | 1.2% | Likely Dredrawn |
| VT-GOV | REP | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | D 91% | D+9.2 | D+34.1 | 3 | — | Likely D |
| NC-10 | REP | Ashley Bell | Pat Harrigan | R 91% | R+11.9 | R+17.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-08 | REP | Bernadette Greene Placentia | Abraham Hamadeh | R 91% | R+11.9 | R+15.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NM-02 | DEM | Gabriel Vasquez | Greg Cunningham | D 91% | D+10.8 | D+0.5 | 1 | 0.9% | Likely D |
| NY-03 | DEM | Tom Suozzi | Mike LiPetri | D 91% | D+12.0 | R+0.1 | 0 | 0.8% | Likely D |
| MD-01 | REP | Daniel Schwartz | Andy Harris | R 91% | R+12.0 | R+16.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| MN-02 | DEM | Matt Little | Eric Pratt | D 91% | D+13.1 | D+6.6 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| AZ-02 | REP | Jonathan Nez | Eli Crane | R 91% | R+12.2 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| MI-08 | DEM | Kristen McDonald Rivet | Thomas J. Smith | D 92% | D+12.7 | R+0.7 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| OK-GOV | REP | Cyndi Munson | Gentner Drummond | R 92% | R+13.7 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| FL-21 | REP | James Martin | Brian Mast | R 92% | R+12.8 | R+14.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| GA-10 | REP | Pamela DeLancy | Houston Gaines | R 92% | R+13.9 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NV-01 | DEM | Dina Titus | Carrie Buck | D 92% | D+12.8 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| UT-02 | REP | Peter Crosby | Blake Moore | R 92% | R+13.2 | R+30.1 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| WI-06 | REP | Democratic candidate (WI-06) | Glenn Grothman | R 93% | R+13.1 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| WI-08 | REP | Rick Crosson | Tony Wied | R 93% | R+13.0 | R+15.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| WI-07 | REP | Fred Clark | Michael Alfonso | R 93% | R+14.6 | R+21.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| ME-GOV | DEM | Hannah Pingree+ Rick Bennett (I) | Robert Charles | D 93% | D+10.2 | D+8.0 | 10 | — | Likely DIND on ballot |
| FL-18 | REP | Curtis Gibson | Scott Franklin | R 93% | R+13.5 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-21 | REP | Kristin Hook | Mark Teixeira | R 93% | R+14.7 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| KS-02 | REP | Don Coover | Derek Schmidt | R 93% | R+13.7 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| MI-01 | REP | Callie Barr | Jack Bergman | R 93% | R+13.7 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| WA-04 | REP | John Duresky | Amanda McKinney | R 93% | R+14.9 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| GA-11 | REP | Chris Harden | John Cowan | R 94% | R+15.1 | R+22.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TX-38 | REP | Melissa McDonough | Jon Bonck | R 94% | R+15.3 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-22 | REP | Marquette Greene-Scott | Trever Nehls | R 94% | R+15.4 | R+21.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-09 | REP | Leticia Gutierrez | Alexandra Mealer | R 94% | R+15.5 | R+16.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| RI-GOV | DEM | Helena Foulkes | Elaine Pelino | D 94% | D+15.5 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Likely D |
| FL-05 | REP | Rachel Grage | John Rutherford | R 94% | R+14.2 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| SC-05 | REP | Mallory Dittmer | Wes Climer | R 94% | R+15.5 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NC-08 | REP | Colby Watson | Mark Harris | R 94% | R+14.2 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-26 | REP | Nicole Locklin | Mario Diaz-Balart | R 94% | R+14.3 | R+13.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-10 | REP | Caitlin Rourk | Chris Gober | R 94% | R+15.7 | R+20.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| VA-06 | REP | Beth Macy | Ben Cline | R 94% | R+14.5 | R+23.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NY-19 | DEM | Josh Riley | Peter Oberacker | D 95% | D+14.7 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| NV-03 | DEM | Susie Lee | Marty O'Donnell | D 95% | D+14.7 | D+1.5 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| IL-SEN | DEM | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | D 95% | D+17.0 | D+13.0 | 1 | — | Likely D |
| PA-11 | REP | Nancy Mannion | Lloyd Smucker | R 95% | R+14.8 | R+21.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| AL-GOV | REP | Doug Jones | Tommy Tuberville | R 95% | R+13.0 | R+29.3 | 3 | — | Likely R |
| MO-03 | REP | Bethany Mann | Bob Onder | R 95% | R+15.0 | R+19.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OH-14 | REP | Maria Jukic | David Joyce | R 95% | R+15.5 | R+19.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-13 | DEM | Adam Gray | Kevin Lincoln | D 96% | D+15.6 | D+5.2 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| TN-07 | REP | Darden Copeland | Matt Van Epps | R 96% | R+15.7 | R+21.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-GOV | REP | Jerri Green | Marsha Blackburn | R 96% | R+13.8 | R+28.2 | 3 | — | Likely R |
| NV-04 | DEM | Steven Horsford | Cody Whipple | D 96% | D+15.9 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| IN-01 | DEM | Frank Mrvan | Barb Regnitz | D 96% | D+15.9 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| TX-27 | REP | Tanya Lloyd | Michael Cloud | R 96% | R+15.9 | R+20.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| UT-04 | REP | Jonathan Larsen | Mike Kennedy | R 96% | R+17.0 | R+33.4 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-08 | REP | Heidi Kuhn | David Kustoff | R 96% | R+16.1 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MN-06 | REP | Doug Chapin | Tom Emmer | R 96% | R+16.1 | R+19.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| CA-05 | REP | Michael Masuda | Tom McClintock | R 96% | R+16.1 | R+19.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MO-04 | REP | Jordan Herrera | Mark Alford | R 96% | R+16.3 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| GA-SEN | DEM | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | D 96% | D+11.6 | R+1.3 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| KS-04 | REP | Katy Tyndell | Ron Estes | R 96% | R+16.3 | R+23.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| OH-13 | DEM | Emilia Sykes | Carey Coleman | D 96% | D+16.4 | D+4.3 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| NJ-09 | DEM | Nelida Pou | Rosemary Pino | D 96% | D+16.7 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| NY-23 | REP | Aaron Gies | Nick Langworthy | R 96% | R+16.8 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| MO-06 | REP | Josh Smead | Chris Stigall | R 97% | R+18.3 | R+26.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-31 | REP | Justin Early | John Carter | R 97% | R+16.8 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-45 | DEM | Derek Tran | Chuong Vo | D 97% | D+17.1 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| FL-15 | REP | Robert People | Laurel Lee | R 97% | R+17.1 | R+17.4 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-16 | REP | Paul Nolley | Darin LaHood | R 97% | R+17.1 | R+22.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| IL-08 | DEM | Melissa Bean | Jennifer Davis | D 97% | D+18.6 | D+9.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| CT-05 | DEM | Jahana Hayes | Chris Shea | D 97% | D+17.2 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| SD-01 | REP | Nicole Gronli | Marty Jackley | R 97% | R+18.7 | R+28.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| FL-03 | REP | Seth Harp | Kat Cammack | R 97% | R+17.5 | R+19.2 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-04 | DEM | Patty Garcia | Lupe Castillo | D 97% | D+26.8 | D+33.7 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| VA-07 | DEM | Eugene Vindman | Doug Ollivant | D 97% | D+17.5 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| NJ-05 | DEM | Josh Gottheimer | Sean Kirrane | D 97% | D+17.6 | D+4.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| PA-16 | REP | Justin Wagner | George Kelly | R 97% | R+17.5 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KS-03 | DEM | Sharice Davids | Eric Jenkins | D 97% | D+17.6 | D+4.6 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| PA-17 | DEM | Chris Deluzio | Jesse Vodvarka | D 97% | D+17.6 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| CA-23 | REP | Tessa Lynn Hodge | Jay Obernolte | R 97% | R+17.6 | R+17.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-03 | REP | Evan Hunt | Keith Self | R 97% | R+17.8 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-18 | DEM | Pat Ryan | Jackie Auringer | D 97% | D+17.8 | D+5.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| MS-SEN | REP | Scott Colom+ Ty Pinkins (I) | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R 97% | R+14.7 | R+21.2 | 2 | — | Safe RIND on ballot |
| FL-17 | REP | Matthew Montavon | Greg Steube | R 97% | R+18.0 | R+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-05 | REP | Ruth Torres | Lance Gooden | R 97% | R+17.9 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-04 | REP | Laura Gillen | Jeanine Driscoll | D 97% | D+18.0 | D+5.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| IL-17 | DEM | Eric Sorensen | Dillan Vancil | D 97% | D+18.1 | D+5.9 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| SD-GOV | REP | Dan Ahlers | Larry Rhoden | R 97% | R+18.0 | R+28.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WA-08 | DEM | Kim Schrier | Spencer Meline | D 98% | D+18.3 | D+6.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| TX-17 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-17) | Pete Sessions | R 98% | R+18.4 | R+20.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-25 | REP | Dione Sims | Roger Williams | R 98% | R+18.5 | R+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AR-GOV | REP | Fredrick Love | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R 98% | R+18.6 | R+30.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AZ-04 | DEM | Greg Stanton | Zuhdi Jasser | D 98% | D+18.6 | D+8.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| NM-03 | DEM | Teresa Leger Fernandez | Martin Zamora | D 98% | D+18.7 | D+7.1 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| TN-06 | REP | Mike Croley | Johnny Garrett | R 98% | R+20.4 | R+25.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-06 | REP | Danny Minton | Jake Ellzey | R 98% | R+18.8 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-24 | REP | Alissa Ellman | Claudia Tenney | R 98% | R+18.9 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-06 | DEM | Sean Casten | Niki Conforti | D 98% | D+18.9 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| WI-05 | REP | Andrew Beck | Scott Fitzgerald | R 98% | R+18.9 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-25 | DEM | Raul Ruiz | Joe Males | D 98% | D+19.0 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| TN-04 | REP | Victoria Broderick | Scott Desjarlais | R 98% | R+19.2 | R+21.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-14 | REP | Richard Davis | Randy Weber | R 98% | R+19.1 | R+23.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| GA-07 | REP | Haiden Moburg | Rich McCormick | R 98% | R+19.3 | R+21.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OH-05 | REP | Daniel Burket | Bob Latta | R 98% | R+19.2 | R+23.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MI-03 | DEM | Hillary Scholten | Terri DeBoer | D 98% | D+19.3 | D+8.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| AL-05 | REP | Andrew Sneed | Dale Strong | R 98% | R+19.2 | R+28.7 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| SC-04 | REP | Courtney McClain | William Timmons | R 98% | R+19.3 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-01 | DEM | Mike McGuire | James Gallagher | D 98% | D+19.3 | D+14.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-28 | REP | Phil Ehr | Carlos Gimenez | R 98% | R+19.4 | R+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-12 | REP | Jerrad Christian | Troy Balderson | R 98% | R+19.5 | R+29.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OR-05 | REP | Janelle Bynum | Patti Adair | D 98% | D+19.7 | D+9.3 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| CT-02 | DEM | Joe Courtney | George Austin | D 98% | D+19.9 | D+9.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| MD-06 | DEM | April Delaney | Robin Ficker | D 98% | D+20.1 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| AR-03 | REP | Robb Ryerse | Steve Womack | R 98% | R+20.0 | R+25.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-26 | REP | Steven Shook | Brandon Gill | R 98% | R+20.3 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-14 | DEM | Lauren Underwood | James Marter | D 98% | D+20.5 | D+7.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| AR-SEN | REP | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | R 98% | R+15.2 | R+30.4 | 3 | — | Safe R |
| LA-06 | DEM | Democratic candidate (LA-06) | Peter Williams | R 98% | R+22.4 | R+32.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| KY-SEN | REP | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | R 99% | R+22.6 | R+29.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NY-GOV | DEM | Kathy Hochul | Bruce Blakeman | D 99% | D+15.0 | D+15.7 | 10 | — | Safe D |
| NY-22 | DEM | John Mannion | Kailee Buller | D 99% | D+20.8 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| TX-12 | REP | Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman | Craig Goldman | R 99% | R+20.8 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-GOV | DEM | Josh Shapiro | Stacy Garrity | D 99% | D+17.3 | R+0.7 | 10 | — | Safe D |
| WY-GOV | REP | Kenneth Casner | Eric Barlow | R 99% | R+23.0 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-36 | REP | Rhonda Hart | Brian Babin | R 99% | R+21.2 | R+23.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| RI-02 | DEM | Seth Magaziner | Victor Mellor | D 99% | D+21.3 | D+9.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| NJ-03 | DEM | Herb Conaway | Michael McGuire | D 99% | D+21.4 | D+9.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| OK-SEN | REP | Jasmine Thomas | Kevin Hern | R 99% | R+23.4 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-11 | DEM | Analilia Mejia | Joe Hathaway | D 99% | D+21.5 | D+10.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| OR-04 | DEM | Valerie Hoyle | Monique Despain | D 99% | D+21.9 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-21 | DEM | Jim Costa | Kyle Kirkland | D 99% | D+21.9 | D+10.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-03 | DEM | Amerish Bera | Robb Tucker | D 99% | D+22.1 | D+11.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-04 | REP | Jason Pearce | Pat Fallon | R 99% | R+22.4 | R+23.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IA-04 | REP | Dave Dawson | Chris McGowan | R 99% | R+24.7 | R+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-08 | REP | Keith Coleman | Jessica Steinmann | R 99% | R+24.5 | R+25.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MI-11 | DEM | Jeremy Moss | Ethan Baker | D 99% | D+24.7 | D+17.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NJ-SEN | DEM | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | D 99% | D+22.6 | D+8.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-02 | REP | Elinor Gilbreath | Mike Simpson | R 99% | R+22.5 | R+26.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-06 | DEM | Chrissy Houlahan | Martin Young | D 99% | D+22.7 | D+12.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| MA-09 | DEM | Bill Keating | Robert MacAllister | D 99% | D+22.9 | D+13.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| OR-02 | REP | Chris Beck | Cliff Bentz | R 99% | R+23.0 | R+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| GA-02 | DEM | Sanford Bishop | Matt Day | D 99% | D+23.2 | D+8.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NY-11 | REP | Michael DeCillis | Nicole Malliotakis | R 99% | R+23.1 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SC-07 | REP | John Vincent | Russell Fry | R 99% | R+23.1 | R+24.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-13 | DEM | Nikki Budzinski | Jeff Wilson | D 99% | D+23.3 | D+11.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| VA-SEN | DEM | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | D 99% | D+20.1 | D+7.3 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| CA-47 | DEM | Dave Min | Jenny Rae Le Roux | D 99% | D+23.4 | D+12.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| IN-09 | REP | James Graham | Erin Houchin | R 99% | R+23.4 | R+29.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NH-02 | DEM | Maggie Goodlander | Lily Williams | D 99% | D+16.8 | D+5.3 | 3 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| FL-19 | REP | Victor Arias | Jim Schwartzel | R 99% | R+25.7 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| GA-14 | REP | Shawn Harris | Clay Fuller | R 99% | R+23.6 | R+37.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-06 | DEM | Frank Pallone | Hillary Herzig | D 99% | D+23.5 | D+10.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IN-02 | REP | Jamee Decio | Rudy Yakym | R 99% | R+23.8 | R+25.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MI-05 | REP | Christian Vukasovich | Timothy Walberg | R 99% | R+23.9 | R+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| GA-03 | REP | Maura Keller | Brian Jack | R 99% | R+24.0 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-11 | DEM | Bill Foster | Jeffrey Walter | D 99% | D+23.8 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IN-04 | REP | Joseph MacKey | Jim Baird | R 99% | R+24.1 | R+29.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-49 | DEM | Mike Levin | Armen Kurdian | D 99% | D+24.0 | D+13.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| AL-SEN | REP | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | R 99% | R+22.8 | R+29.3 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| CA-26 | DEM | Jacqui Irwin | Samuel Gallucci | D 99% | D+26.7 | D+17.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| ID-GOV | REP | Terri Pickens | Brad Little | R 99% | R+24.2 | R+35.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CO-SEN | DEM | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley | D 99% | D+24.4 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-SEN | REP | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | R 99% | R+27.6 | R+28.2 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| OR-06 | DEM | Andrea Salinas | David Russ | D 99% | D+24.5 | D+12.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| MA-GOV | DEM | Maura Healey | Mike Minogue | D 99% | D+21.3 | D+28.3 | 8 | — | Safe D |
| DE-01 | DEM | Sarah McBride | Donyale Hall | D 99% | D+24.8 | D+16.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| KY-04 | REP | Melissa Strange | Ed Gallrein | R 99% | R+27.4 | R+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MS-03 | REP | Michael Chiaradio | Mike Guest | R 99% | R+24.8 | R+27.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NM-01 | DEM | Melanie Stansbury | Ndidiamaka Okpareke | D 99% | D+24.8 | D+13.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IL-GOV | DEM | JB Pritzker | Darren Bailey | D 99% | D+17.3 | D+13.0 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| VA-10 | DEM | Suhas Subramanyam | Dave Beckwith | D 99% | D+25.0 | D+11.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CT-GOV | DEM | Ned Lamont | Ryan Fazio | D 99% | D+18.5 | D+16.5 | 4 | — | Safe D |
| IN-03 | REP | Kelly Thompson | Marlin Stutzman | R 99% | R+25.6 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-05 | REP | Dan McKay | Blake Miguez | R 99% | R+27.7 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-06 | REP | Eric Yonce | Randy Fine | R 99.5% | R+25.5 | R+28.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-27 | DEM | George Whitesides | Jason Gibbs | D 99.5% | D+25.5 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| KS-01 | REP | Lauren Reinhold | Tracey Mann | R 99.5% | R+25.8 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-06 | REP | Cynthia Wirth | Jefferson Shreve | R 99.5% | R+25.8 | R+32.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MI-02 | REP | Benjamin Ambrose | John Moolenaar | R 99.5% | R+25.8 | R+29.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MT-02 | REP | Brian Miller | Troy Downing | R 99.5% | R+26.1 | R+29.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| UT-03 | REP | Kent Udell | Celeste Maloy | R 99.5% | R+29.1 | R+42.1 | 1 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-35 | DEM | Norma Torres | Mike Cargile | D 99.6% | D+26.2 | D+12.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-07 | DEM | Brittany Pettersen | Amanda Capobianco | D 99.6% | D+26.1 | D+15.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| AZ-09 | REP | Danielle Sterbinsky | Paul Gosar | R 99.6% | R+26.1 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| GA-08 | REP | James Cooper | Austin Scott | R 99.6% | R+26.6 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-42 | DEM | Robert Garcia | Brian Burley | D 99.6% | D+26.7 | D+15.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-38 | DEM | Hilda Solis | Pedro Casas | D 99.6% | D+30.1 | D+17.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-09 | REP | Nicholas Alex | Andrew Clyde | R 99.6% | R+27.1 | R+33.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-14 | REP | David Bradstock | Guy Reschenthaler | R 99.6% | R+27.5 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AL-06 | REP | Keith Pilkington | Gary Palmer | R 99.7% | R+27.1 | R+34.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AL-01 | REP | Clyde Jones | Jerry Carl | R 99.7% | R+30.3 | R+34.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OK-04 | REP | Mitchell Jacob | Tom Cole | R 99.7% | R+27.4 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| HI-GOV | DEM | Josh Green | Gary Cordery | D 99.7% | D+27.3 | D+25.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OR-SEN | DEM | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | D 99.7% | D+27.7 | D+15.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-06 | DEM | Grace Meng | Juan Pagan | D 99.7% | D+27.8 | D+12.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-02 | REP | Michaela Barnett | Tim Burchett | R 99.7% | R+27.7 | R+32.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IN-08 | REP | Mary Allen | Mark Messmer | R 99.7% | R+27.9 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-31 | DEM | Gilbert Cisneros | Eric Ching | D 99.7% | D+28.0 | D+16.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NY-20 | DEM | Paul Tonko | Ralph Ambrosio | D 99.7% | D+27.7 | D+16.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CT-03 | DEM | Rosa Delauro | Christopher Lancia | D 99.7% | D+28.2 | D+16.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-04 | DEM | Madeleine Dean | Aurora Stuski | D 99.7% | D+28.4 | D+17.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ND-01 | REP | Trygve Hammer | Julie Fedorchak | R 99.7% | R+28.5 | R+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-09 | REP | Rachel Wallace | Dan Meuser | R 99.7% | R+28.5 | R+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-39 | DEM | Mark Takano | Steve Manos | D 99.8% | D+28.9 | D+14.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-11 | REP | Claire Reynolds | August Pfluger | R 99.8% | R+29.1 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-33 | DEM | Pete Aguilar | Stephanie Vargas | D 99.8% | D+29.1 | D+14.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NM-SEN | DEM | Ben Ray Lujan | Larry Marker | D 99.8% | D+21.1 | D+7.7 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| RI-SEN | DEM | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | D 99.8% | D+23.3 | D+16.3 | 3 | — | Safe D |
| MN-07 | REP | Erik Osberg | Michelle Fischbach | R 99.8% | R+29.4 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-04 | REP | Matthew Gromlich | Mike Johnson | R 99.8% | R+29.7 | R+33.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MA-06 | DEM | Daniel Koh | John Field | D 99.8% | D+32.7 | D+23.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-09 | REP | Ray Pooley | Lisa McClain | R 99.8% | R+29.3 | R+31.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-12 | DEM | Summer Lee | Leonard Fechter | D 99.8% | D+29.5 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WY-01 | REP | Lisa Kinney | Chuck Gray | R 99.8% | R+32.2 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-SEN | DEM | Ed Markey | John Deaton | D 99.8% | D+27.5 | D+28.3 | 8 | — | Safe D |
| CA-50 | DEM | Scott Peters | Steve Cohen | D 99.8% | D+29.4 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NY-25 | DEM | Joe Morelle | Virginia McIntyre | D 99.8% | D+29.9 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-10 | DEM | Marilyn Strickland | Chris D. Chung | D 99.8% | D+29.7 | D+18.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| DE-SEN | DEM | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | D 99.8% | D+29.7 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-09 | DEM | Josh Harder | John McBride | D 99.8% | D+29.9 | D+15.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-GOV | DEM | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton | D 99.8% | D+23.7 | D+23.4 | 5 | — | Safe D |
| LA-01 | REP | Lauren Jewett | Steve Scalise | R 99.8% | R+30.1 | R+39.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MD-02 | DEM | John Olszewski | David Wallace | D 99.8% | D+30.1 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ME-01 | DEM | Chellie Pingree | Ronald Russell | D 99.8% | D+30.1 | D+22.9 | 0 | — | Safe DRCV |
| NJ-04 | REP | Rachel Peace | Chris Smith | R 99.8% | R+30.4 | R+28.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TN-03 | REP | Anna Golladay | Chuck Fleischmann | R 99.8% | R+30.1 | R+34.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WA-06 | DEM | Emily Randall | Teresa Fox | D 99.8% | D+30.2 | D+19.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CT-01 | DEM | Luke Bronin | Amy Chai | D 99.8% | D+33.7 | D+24.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-03 | DEM | Kelly Morrison | Tyler Bass | D 99.8% | D+30.4 | D+22.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-06 | REP | Malcolm Ritchie | Michael Rulli | R 99.8% | R+30.3 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-15 | REP | Raymond Bilger | Glenn Thompson | R 99.8% | R+30.4 | R+37.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-01 | DEM | Richard Neal | Republican candidate (MA-01) | D 99.8% | D+30.3 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| LA-03 | REP | Tia Lebrun | Clay Higgins | R 99.8% | R+30.6 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MS-01 | REP | Cliff Johnson | Trent Kelly | R 99.8% | R+30.8 | R+35.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-51 | DEM | Sara Jacobs | Ricardo Cabrera | D 99.9% | D+31.2 | D+20.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-20 | REP | Sandra Van Scotter | Vince Fong | R 99.9% | R+31.0 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AL-07 | DEM | Terri Sewell | Ammie Akin | D 99.9% | D+31.9 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-01 | REP | Gay Valimont | Jimmy Patronis | R 99.9% | R+32.1 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-23 | DEM | Lois Frankel | Deborah Adeimy | D 99.9% | D+32.0 | D+17.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MD-GOV | DEM | Wes Moore | Dan Cox | D 99.9% | D+29.8 | D+31.0 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| CA-41 | DEM | Linda Sanchez | Mitch Clemmons | D 99.9% | D+32.4 | D+17.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| KY-03 | DEM | Morgan McGarvey | Maria Rodriguez | D 99.9% | D+32.6 | D+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WV-02 | REP | Ahsan Parsi | Riley Moore | R 99.9% | R+31.7 | R+39.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-01 | DEM | Donald Norcross | Damon Galdo | D >99.9% | D+33.1 | D+20.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CO-06 | DEM | Jason Crow | Khaleb Dammen | D >99.9% | D+33.6 | D+21.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-03 | DEM | Sarah Elfreth | Penny Kennedy | D >99.9% | D+34.3 | D+25.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-46 | DEM | Lou Correa | David Pan | D >99.9% | D+34.3 | D+20.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-15 | REP | Jennifer Todd | Mary Miller | R >99.9% | R+33.2 | R+39.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MO-07 | REP | Missi Hesketh | Eric Burlison | R >99.9% | R+34.1 | R+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-26 | DEM | Timothy Kennedy | Dennis Hannon | D >99.9% | D+34.4 | D+21.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WY-SEN | REP | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | R >99.9% | R+36.7 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WA-02 | DEM | Rick Larsen | Edwin H. Feller | D >99.9% | D+33.9 | D+24.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-10 | DEM | Bradley Schneider | Republican candidate (IL-10) | D >99.9% | D+34.9 | D+23.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-06 | DEM | Debbie Dingell | Heather Smiley | D >99.9% | D+35.4 | D+25.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MS-02 | DEM | Bennie Thompson | Ron Eller | D >99.9% | D+36.1 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-12 | DEM | Adam Hamawy | Gregg Mele | D >99.9% | D+39.3 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-12 | REP | Julie Fortier | Mike Bost | R >99.9% | R+34.9 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OH-02 | REP | Jennifer Mazzuckelli | David Taylor | R >99.9% | R+35.5 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-04 | REP | Tamara Wilson | Jim Jordan | R >99.9% | R+35.6 | R+42.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| SC-03 | REP | Eunice Lehmacher | Sheri Biggs | R >99.9% | R+36.9 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| VA-09 | REP | Joy Powers | Morgan Griffith | R >99.9% | R+37.0 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WV-SEN | REP | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | R >99.9% | R+36.5 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-02 | DEM | Jared Huffman | Robin Littau | D >99.9% | D+36.4 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-24 | DEM | Salud Carbajal | Robert Smith | D >99.9% | D+35.6 | D+27.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-52 | DEM | Juan Vargas | Jeff Belle | D >99.9% | D+36.9 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-03 | DEM | Lori Trahan | Gary Grossi | D >99.9% | D+36.4 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AR-04 | REP | James Russell | Bruce Westerman | R >99.9% | R+37.1 | R+39.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-13 | REP | Elizabeth Farnham | John Joyce | R >99.9% | R+37.9 | R+45.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-04 | DEM | Jake Auchincloss | Republican candidate (MA-04) | D >99.9% | D+37.4 | D+22.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-16 | DEM | Veronica Escobar | Republican candidate (TX-16) | D >99.9% | D+37.7 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| KY-02 | REP | Megan Wingfield | Brett Guthrie | R >99.9% | R+38.0 | R+40.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MS-04 | REP | Jeffrey Hulum | Mike Ezell | R >99.9% | R+38.7 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-13 | REP | Mark Nair | Ronny Jackson | R >99.9% | R+38.1 | R+45.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WV-01 | REP | Vince George | Carol Miller | R >99.9% | R+39.1 | R+44.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| HI-02 | DEM | Jill Tokuda | Brenton Awa | D >99.9% | D+38.4 | D+24.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-02 | DEM | Jim McGovern | Republican candidate (MA-02) | D >99.9% | D+40.2 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-05 | DEM | Adrian Boafo | Chris Chaffee | D >99.9% | D+42.6 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| RI-01 | DEM | Gabriel Amo | Republican candidate (RI-01) | D >99.9% | D+38.2 | D+24.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-07 | DEM | Elizabeth Fletcher | Alexander Hale | D >99.9% | D+38.5 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| UT-01 | DEM | Ben McAdams | Riley Owen | D >99.9% | D+31.4 | D+25.0 | 1 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| WA-01 | DEM | Suzan DelBene | Mary Silva | D >99.9% | D+39.2 | D+30.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-03 | REP | Lee McInnis | Mike Rogers | R >99.9% | R+42.5 | R+45.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AR-01 | REP | Terri Green | Rick Crawford | R >99.9% | R+41.3 | R+45.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-28 | DEM | Judy Chu | April Verlato | D >99.9% | D+40.7 | D+28.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-32 | DEM | Brad Sherman | Larry Thompson | D >99.9% | D+41.6 | D+28.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CT-04 | DEM | Jim Himes | Michael Goldstein | D >99.9% | D+39.8 | D+26.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| FL-10 | DEM | Maxwell Frost | Stuart Farber | D >99.9% | D+42.8 | D+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| HI-01 | DEM | Ed Case | Maxwell Frazier | D >99.9% | D+39.1 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-02 | DEM | Donna Miller | Calvin Coleman | D >99.9% | D+46.6 | D+35.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NC-02 | DEM | Deborah Ross | Eugene Douglass | D >99.9% | D+42.2 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OK-03 | REP | Jules Roberson | Frank Lucas | R >99.9% | R+38.9 | R+44.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-05 | DEM | Mary Scanlon | Melvin Johnakin | D >99.9% | D+41.2 | D+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-19 | REP | Kyle Rable | Tom Sell | R >99.9% | R+46.0 | R+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MT-SEN | REP | Alani Bankhead+ Seth Bodnar (I) | Kurt Alme | R >99.9% | R+24.4 | R+19.3 | 9 | — | Safe RIND 1% |
| AZ-07 | DEM | Adelita Grijalva | Daniel Butierez | D >99.9% | D+42.4 | D+25.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-10 | DEM | Mark DeSaulnier | Jeff Frese | D >99.9% | D+45.6 | D+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-19 | DEM | Jimmy Panetta | Peter Verbica | D >99.9% | D+47.1 | D+37.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-02 | DEM | Joe Neguse | Kelley Dennison | D >99.9% | D+48.2 | D+41.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-13 | DEM | Jasmine Clark | Jonathan Chavez | D >99.9% | D+47.6 | D+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-01 | REP | Kaylee Peterson | Russ Fulcher | R >99.9% | R+42.6 | R+44.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-05 | DEM | Mike Quigley | Tom Hanson | D >99.9% | D+47.8 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-09 | DEM | Daniel Biss | John Elleson | D >99.9% | D+47.1 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-01 | REP | Drew Williams | James Comer | R >99.9% | R+43.2 | R+46.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-08 | DEM | Stephen Lynch | Gavin Solomon | D >99.9% | D+45.0 | D+29.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-04 | DEM | Betty McCollum | Paul Wikstrom | D >99.9% | D+45.7 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MO-08 | REP | Christopher Reichard | Jason Smith | R >99.9% | R+45.7 | R+53.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NE-03 | REP | Becky Stille | Adrian Smith | R >99.9% | R+45.7 | R+53.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-08 | DEM | Rob Menendez | Republican candidate (NJ-08) | D >99.9% | D+51.1 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OR-01 | DEM | Suzanne Bonamici | Barbara Kahl | D >99.9% | D+47.0 | D+39.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| SC-06 | DEM | Jim Clyburn | John Peterson | D >99.9% | D+42.7 | D+25.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-01 | REP | Kristi Burke | Diana Harshbarger | R >99.9% | R+49.3 | R+57.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-01 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-01) | Nathaniel Moran | R >99.9% | R+45.8 | R+48.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-20 | DEM | Joaquin Castro | Edgardo Baez | D >99.9% | D+49.3 | D+32.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-33 | DEM | Colin Allred | Patrick Gillespie | D >99.9% | D+52.6 | D+36.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-04 | DEM | Jennifer McClellan | Robert Murray | D >99.9% | D+45.6 | D+34.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-11 | DEM | James Walkinshaw | Arthur Purves | D >99.9% | D+50.5 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WI-02 | DEM | Mark Pocan | (no Republican filed) | D >99.9% | D+50.3 | D+41.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AK-01 | REP | (No Democrat)+ Bill Hill (I) | Nick Begich III | R >99.9% | R+9.1 | R+12.7 | 3 | 0.1% | Safe RIND on ballot |
| AL-04 | REP | Amanda Pusczek | Robert Aderholt | R >99.9% | R+60.4 | R+65.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AZ-03 | DEM | Yassamin Ansari | Kirt Burgess | D >99.9% | D+62.7 | D+43.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-04 | DEM | Mike Thompson | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+29.7 | D+16.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-07 | DEM | Doris Matsui | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+28.2 | D+15.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-08 | DEM | John Garamendi | Rudy Recile | D >99.9% | D+51.5 | D+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-11 | DEM | Scott Wiener | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+82.4 | D+72.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-12 | DEM | Lateefah Simon | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+89.9 | D+79.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-14 | DEM | Aisha Wahab | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+54.2 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-15 | DEM | Kevin Mullin | Charles Hoelter | D >99.9% | D+68.7 | D+52.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-16 | DEM | Sam Liccardo | Peter Sundin Soulé | D >99.9% | D+60.3 | D+51.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-17 | DEM | Rohit Khanna | Ritesh Tandon | D >99.9% | D+58.2 | D+43.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-18 | DEM | Zoe Lofgren | Shane Lewis | D >99.9% | D+49.4 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-29 | DEM | Luz Rivas | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+56.7 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-30 | DEM | Laura Friedman | Scott Alan Meyers | D >99.9% | D+52.2 | D+42.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-34 | DEM | Jimmy Gomez | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+76.5 | D+56.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-36 | DEM | Ted Lieu | Houston Brignano | D >99.9% | D+51.9 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-37 | DEM | Sydney Kamlager-Dove | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+86.8 | D+65.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-40 | REP | (no Democrat — top-two) | Ken Calvert | D >99.9% | R+7.1 | R+11.1 | 0 | 0.4% | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-43 | DEM | Maxine Waters | Cristian Morales | D >99.9% | D+73.4 | D+54.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-44 | DEM | Nanette Barragan | Genevieve Angel | D >99.9% | D+58.4 | D+41.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-01 | DEM | Melat Kiros | Christy Peterson | D >99.9% | D+68.3 | D+59.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| FL-20 | DEM | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | Brent Andersen | D >99.9% | D+58.7 | D+40.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-24 | DEM | Oliver Gilbert | Te Brown | D >99.9% | D+60.8 | D+43.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-04 | DEM | Henry Johnson | Jim Duffie | D >99.9% | D+67.8 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-05 | DEM | Nikema Williams | Republican candidate (GA-05) | D >99.9% | D+77.3 | D+73.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-06 | DEM | Lucia McBath | Kevin Martin | D >99.9% | D+56.9 | D+50.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-01 | DEM | Jonathan Jackson | Christian Maxwell | D >99.9% | D+51.0 | D+35.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-03 | DEM | Delia Ramirez | Angel Oakley | D >99.9% | D+52.0 | D+34.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-07 | DEM | La Shawn Ford | Chad Koppie | D >99.9% | D+82.7 | D+68.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IN-07 | DEM | Andre Carson | Felipe Rios | D >99.9% | D+49.4 | D+42.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-05 | REP | Ned Pillersdorf | Harold Rogers | R >99.9% | R+58.5 | R+63.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-02 | DEM | Troy Carter | Republican candidate (LA-02) | D >99.9% | D+61.6 | D+50.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-05 | DEM | Katherine Clark | Republican candidate (MA-05) | D >99.9% | D+60.9 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-07 | DEM | Ayanna Pressley | Republican candidate (MA-07) | D >99.9% | D+86.1 | D+67.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-04 | DEM | Glenn Ivey | Republican candidate (MD-04) | D >99.9% | D+90.9 | D+77.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-07 | DEM | Kweisi Mfume | Republican candidate (MD-07) | D >99.9% | D+72.9 | D+61.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-08 | DEM | Jamie Raskin | Cheryl Riley | D >99.9% | D+72.6 | D+59.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-12 | DEM | Rashida Tlaib | James D. Hooper | D >99.9% | D+60.4 | D+42.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-13 | DEM | Donavan McKinney | T.P. Nykoriak | D >99.9% | D+57.7 | D+44.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-05 | DEM | Ilhan Omar+ DeVelle L. Jackson (I) | John Nagel | D >99.9% | D+67.4 | D+64.1 | 0 | — | Safe DIND on ballot |
| MO-01 | DEM | Wesley Bell | Paul Berry | D >99.9% | D+63.0 | D+59.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NC-04 | DEM | Valerie Foushee | Mahesh Ganorkar | D >99.9% | D+51.5 | D+46.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NC-12 | DEM | Alma Adams | John Codiga | D >99.9% | D+56.1 | D+48.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-10 | DEM | Lamonica McIver | Carmen Bucco | D >99.9% | D+72.8 | D+52.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-05 | DEM | Gregory Meeks | George Marsh | D >99.9% | D+67.9 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-07 | DEM | Claire Valdez | Melvin Rivera | D >99.9% | D+67.4 | D+51.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-08 | DEM | Hakeem Jeffries | Lewis Mizrahi | D >99.9% | D+67.8 | D+47.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-09 | DEM | Yvette Clarke | Joel Anabilah-Azumah | D >99.9% | D+63.9 | D+44.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-10 | DEM | Brad Lander | Jennifer Moore | D >99.9% | D+82.0 | D+64.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-12 | DEM | Micah Lasher | Caroline Shinkle | D >99.9% | D+79.9 | D+67.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-13 | DEM | Darializa Avila Chevalier | Republican candidate (NY-13) | D >99.9% | D+84.9 | D+65.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-14 | DEM | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Diamant Hysenaj | D >99.9% | D+56.9 | D+38.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-15 | DEM | Ritchie Torres | Republican candidate (NY-15) | D >99.9% | D+76.1 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-16 | DEM | George Latimer | Joseph Cinquemani | D >99.9% | D+54.2 | D+36.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-03 | DEM | Joyce Beatty | Republican candidate (OH-03) | D >99.9% | D+51.5 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OH-11 | DEM | Shontel Brown | Mike Kirchner | D >99.9% | D+63.8 | D+56.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OK-02 | REP | Erik Terwey | Josh Brecheen | R >99.9% | R+48.1 | R+55.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-03 | DEM | Maxine Dexter | Loran Ayles | D >99.9% | D+54.5 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-02 | DEM | Brendan Boyle | Jessica Arriaga | D >99.9% | D+53.0 | D+38.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-03 | DEM | Chris Rabb | Alexander Schnell | D >99.9% | D+84.2 | D+79.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-18 | DEM | Christian Menefee | Republican candidate (TX-18) | D >99.9% | D+76.7 | D+58.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-29 | DEM | Sylvia Garcia | Martha Fierro | D >99.9% | D+52.0 | D+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-30 | DEM | Frederick Haynes | Sholdon Daniels | D >99.9% | D+64.0 | D+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-37 | DEM | Greg Casar | Lauren Pena | D >99.9% | D+71.5 | D+59.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-03 | DEM | Bobby Scott | Edwin Rivera | D >99.9% | D+48.9 | D+36.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-08 | DEM | Don Beyer | Tony Sabio | D >99.9% | D+66.2 | D+52.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VT-01 | DEM | Rebecca Balint | Gerald Malloy | D >99.9% | D+39.4 | D+34.1 | 3 | — | Safe D |
| WA-07 | DEM | Pramila Jayapal | Nirav Sheth | D >99.9% | D+80.1 | D+77.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-09 | DEM | Adam Smith | Doug Basler | D >99.9% | D+53.5 | D+43.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WI-04 | DEM | Gwen Moore | Tim Rogers | D >99.9% | D+59.1 | D+53.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-SEN | REP | (No Democrat)+ Todd Achilles (I) | Jim Risch | R >99.9% | R+36.3 | R+35.8 | 0 | — | Safe RIND on ballot |
| NE-SEN | REP | (No Democrat)+ Dan Osborn (I) | Pete Ricketts | R >99.9% | R+19.3 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe RIND on ballot |
| SD-SEN | REP | (No Democrat)+ Brian Bengs (I) | Mike Rounds | R >99.9% | R+26.7 | R+28.9 | 0 | — | Safe RIND on ballot |
We tested twenty economic measures against 2,130 polls over twenty months. The economy reaches presidential approval clearly and stops there, and the reason is more interesting than the result.
