Iowa — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Josh Turek
41%
Republican
Ashley Hinson
59%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+1.6
- 80% range
- R+10.4 to D+7.3
- Partisan lean
- R+11.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.19×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
64%36%
Polls 64%Fundamentals 36%
- Polling average
- R+0.1
- Fundamentals
- R+3.6
- Blended
- R+1.4
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 3.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 13
- Distinct pollsters
- 9
- Most recent
- October 6, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.5%
- Republican
- 45.6%
- Undecided / other
- 8.5%
- Spread between polls
- 3.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.8
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+4.5
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 13 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 6, 2026 | 650 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 |
| CNN/SSRS | October 5, 2026 | 801 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | September 28, 2026 | 1,008 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 |
| Marist University | September 20, 2026 | 1,050 RV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| co/efficientREP | September 16, 2026 | 831 LV | 42 | 46 | R+4 |
| YouGov | September 8, 2026 | 2,041 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 |
| YouGov | September 8, 2026 | 2,166 RV | 44 | 43 | D+1 |
| Emerson College | September 1, 2026 | 750 LV | 45 | 50 | R+5 |
| Suffolk University | August 23, 2026 | 500 LV | 41 | 45 | R+5 |
| Emerson College | August 4, 2026 | 712 LV | 45 | 48 | R+3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | June 27, 2026 | 1,003 RV | 50 | 46 | D+4 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 27, 2026 | 600 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| CygnalREP | June 19, 2026 | 600 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 |
| Public Policy PollingDEM | June 4, 2026 | 557 RV | 46 | 46 | D+0 |
| Echelon Insights | April 9, 2026 | 377 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson Arenholz | REP | $10.2M | $6.7M |
| Joshua Turek | DEM | $6.3M | $2.4M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.