Texas — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
James Talarico
43%
Republican
Ken Paxton
57%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+1.1
- 80% range
- R+9.8 to D+7.6
- Partisan lean
- R+11.5
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.14×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
69%31%
Polls 69%Fundamentals 31%
- Polling average
- R+0.4
- Fundamentals
- R+1.9
- Blended
- R+0.9
- Similar-race shift
- +0.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 23
- Distinct pollsters
- 16
- Most recent
- September 28, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.0%
- Republican
- 47.4%
- Undecided / other
- 5.6%
- Spread between polls
- 2.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.5
- Elasticity
- 1.10
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+2.3
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 23 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | September 28, 2026 | 850 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | September 28, 2026 | 800 LV | 47 | 48 | R+2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | September 28, 2026 | 881 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2 |
| Slingshot Strategies | September 22, 2026 | 1,007 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | September 19, 2026 | 1,800 LV | 47 | 49 | R+2 |
| Emerson College | September 14, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | September 11, 2026 | 614 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 9, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| YouGov | September 4, 2026 | 1,000 RV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | September 1, 2026 | 895 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| Slingshot Strategies | August 24, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | August 13, 2026 | 1,218 RV | 42 | 42 | D+0 |
| Emerson College | August 10, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 |
| YouGov BlueDEM | July 31, 2026 | 1,001 RV | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
| Wedgewood Polls | July 31, 2026 | 800 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | DEM | $68.6M | $21.5M |
| Warren Kenneth Paxton | REP | $9.2M | $1.8M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.