Alaska — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · ranked-choice voting
Democrat
Mary Peltola
32%
Republican
Dan Sullivan
68%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+3.0
- 80% range
- R+11.3 to D+5.3
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.05×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
58%42%
Polls 58%Fundamentals 42%
- Polling average
- R+0.7
- Fundamentals
- R+6.2
- Blended
- R+2.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 5.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 5
- Most recent
- September 30, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.9%
- Republican
- 48.6%
- Undecided / other
- 3.5%
- Spread between polls
- 2.6 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Elasticity
- 0.95
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- −0.3
- Fundraising
- +2.5
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+6.9
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 8 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | September 30, 2026 | 758 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| co/efficient | September 17, 2026 | 799 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | September 11, 2026 | 800 LV | 53 | 47 | D+6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | August 23, 2026 | 1,495 LV | 51 | 49 | D+1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | August 5, 2026 | 1,371 LV | 51 | 49 | D+2 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 29, 2026 | 593 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | June 7, 2026 | 1,393 LV | 49 | 51 | R+1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | May 17, 2026 | 1,401 LV | 48 | 52 | R+3 |
| Alaska Survey Research | April 19, 2026 | — LV | 51 | 47 | D+4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | April 19, 2026 | 1,946 LV | 52 | 48 | D+4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 22, 2026 | 1,283 LV | 52 | 48 | D+5 |
| Public Policy PollingDEM | January 17, 2026 | 611 RV | 49 | 47 | D+2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | January 11, 2026 | 1,681 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
| Data for ProgressDEM | October 23, 2025 | 823 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | October 15, 2025 | 1,708 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | DEM | $18.5M | $4.6M |
| Dan Sullivan | REP | $9.1M | $7.3M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.