The chance of Democrats winning the Senate rose from 69% to 76% since yesterday, and their expected seat count went from 51.8 to 52.4. The middle 80% of outcomes now runs from 49 to 56 Democratic seats. Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats need 51, because a 50-50 Senate would be decided by the Vice President, a Republican. The move came from a large batch of state polls landing in a handful of races.

Maine, Texas and Iowa

Maine moved most. Troy Jackson now leads Susan Collins by 4.2 points, up from 2.8, and his chance of winning rose from 70% to 80%. The average took in three new polls: Times/Siena had Jackson ahead by 5.9 points, YouGov by 5.0 and the University of New Hampshire by 9.0.

In Texas, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 2.7 points, up from 1.8, and his chance is 69% against 62% yesterday. Four polls were added. Times/Siena showed Talarico ahead by 7.1 points, AtlasIntel by 6.0 and YouGov by 4.0. A Trafalgar Group poll, which is Republican-aligned, had Paxton ahead by 0.6 points.

Iowa changed hands in the averages, narrowly. Josh Turek leads Ashley Hinson by 0.2 points; yesterday Hinson led by 0.5. Turek's chance is 51%. Times/Siena had him ahead by 0.7 points and YouGov by 1.0. A lead that small is close to a coin flip: in races polled two to three weeks out, leads under 2 points were won by the leader 49% of the time. Ohio is similar in kind. Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted by 1.8 points and has a 64% chance, after Times/Siena put him ahead by 5.6 points and YouGov by 2.0.

Not every Senate race moved the same way. In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan's lead over Michele Tafoya shrank from 8.0 points to 6.9, a gain for Tafoya. InsiderAdvantage had Flanagan ahead by 2.9 points and Research Co. by 5.0. Flanagan's chance is still 90%.

In Louisiana, Julia Letlow's lead over Jamie Davis fell from 7.7 points to 6.4 after a Lincoln Park Strategies poll, which is Democratic-aligned, showed the race tied. Letlow still has an 88% chance. Only four polls are in that average.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed's lead edged up from 4.3 to 4.8 points, and his chance is 82%. Times/Siena had him ahead by 11.0 points, while Research Co. had him ahead by 2.0. ABC News and NBC News reported on Sunday that Representative Haley Stevens endorsed the Republican in the race, after El-Sayed's campaign asked her to stop attending its events. Politico reported that Republicans are intensifying attacks on El-Sayed.

New Hampshire and Vermont governors

The largest single-race moves came from one pollster. The University of New Hampshire released a batch of polls fielded from 27 to 31 October, and two governor's races shifted sharply as a result.

In Vermont, Amanda Janoo now leads Phil Scott by 0.3 points. Yesterday Scott led by 4.7, and his chance of winning was 80%. Janoo is now the favourite at 53%. The new poll had her ahead by 8.0 points, and the average now includes seven polls instead of six.

In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte's lead over Cinde Warmington fell from 10.4 points to 5.8. The same pollster found the race tied. Ayotte's chance of winning fell from 97% to 87%, and she is still the favourite. The same poll in New Hampshire's Senate race had Chris Pappas ahead by 12.0 points. His lead is now 9.3 points and his chance is 96%.

Nationally, Democrats' expected governorships rose from 20.5 to 21.5.

The national average

The generic ballot average, after bias correction, rose from 5.3 to 5.9 points for Democrats, and the national environment moved from Democrats +6.8 to +7.0. AtlasIntel published a poll with Democrats ahead by 14.1 points. The forecast also changed its rules in the last day: no single poll can now move the national average by more than 0.6 points. That is the size of the day's change.

The House chance for Democrats rose from 92% to 95%, and their expected seat count from 238 to 240. A majority needs 218.