South Carolina — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Annie Andrews
26%
Republican
Generic Republican
74%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+6.1
- 80% range
- R+18.6 to D+6.4
- Partisan lean
- R+16.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+5.9
- Blended
- R+5.9
- Similar-race shift
- +1.6
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+16.2
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.6
- Fundraising
- +1.7
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+7.5
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annie Andrews | DEM | $10.8M | $4.1M |
| Timothy E. Scott | REP | $5.3M | $4.9M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.