South Carolina — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Annie Andrews
21%
Republican
Generic Republican
79%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+9.4
- 80% range
- R+24.5 to D+5.7
- Partisan lean
- R+16.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+8.8
- Blended
- R+8.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.3
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+16.2
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.6
- Fundraising
- +1.8
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+9.1