Michigan — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Abdul El-Sayed
68%
Republican
Mike Rogers
32%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+4.0
- 80% range
- R+7.0 to D+14.9
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.28×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
58%42%
Polls 58%Fundamentals 42%
- Polling average
- D+2.9
- Fundamentals
- D+8.3
- Blended
- D+4.6
- Similar-race shift
- +1.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 5.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 16
- Distinct pollsters
- 12
- Most recent
- August 17, 2026
- Democrat
- 46.8%
- Republican
- 43.9%
- Undecided / other
- 9.3%
- Spread between polls
- 3.9 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.6
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+6.9