Michigan — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Abdul El-Sayed
77%
Republican
Mike Rogers
23%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+5.0
- 80% range
- R+3.8 to D+13.8
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.17×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
70%30%
Polls 70%Fundamentals 30%
- Polling average
- D+3.8
- Fundamentals
- D+8.5
- Blended
- D+5.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.7 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 27
- Distinct pollsters
- 22
- Most recent
- October 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.9%
- Republican
- 44.1%
- Undecided / other
- 6.1%
- Spread between polls
- 2.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.5
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+8.6
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 27 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A ResearchDEM | October 1, 2026 | 483 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | October 1, 2026 | 682 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5 |
| Trafalgar GroupREP | September 30, 2026 | 1,085 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | September 28, 2026 | 1,028 LV | 50 | 49 | D+1 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | September 27, 2026 | 800 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| co/efficient | September 23, 2026 | 843 LV | 50 | 50 | D+0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | September 22, 2026 | 605 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research | September 21, 2026 | 600 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5 |
| Suffolk University | September 20, 2026 | 500 LV | 47 | 40 | D+7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 17, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 |
| Emerson College | September 14, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 48 | 46 | D+3 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | September 14, 2026 | 803 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
| Trafalgar GroupREP | September 9, 2026 | 1,079 LV | 46 | 45 | D+2 |
| EPIC-MRA | August 28, 2026 | 600 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | August 20, 2026 | 913 RV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-sayed | DEM | $14.5M | $2.6M |
| Michael J Rogers | REP | $10.9M | $4.5M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.