New Hampshire — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Chris Pappas
90%
Republican
John E. Sununu
10%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+9.1
- 80% range
- D+0.1 to D+18.1
- Partisan lean
- D+4.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.22×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
58%42%
Polls 58%Fundamentals 42%
- Polling average
- D+7.1
- Fundamentals
- D+12.6
- Blended
- D+9.3
- Similar-race shift
- −1.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 5.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 4
- Most recent
- September 22, 2026
- Democrat
- 49.0%
- Republican
- 41.8%
- Undecided / other
- 8.6%
- Spread between polls
- 3.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+4.3
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.9
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+14.3
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 8 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | September 22, 2026 | 613 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| University of New Hampshire | September 21, 2026 | 1,418 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 17, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 40 | D+8 |
| University of New Hampshire | August 24, 2026 | 1,878 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | August 18, 2026 | 1,411 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7 |
| Saint Anselm | June 25, 2026 | 1,614 RV | 47 | 41 | D+6 |
| University of New Hampshire | June 23, 2026 | 2,232 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
| University of New Hampshire | April 21, 2026 | 1,295 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 |
| Emerson College | March 23, 2026 | 1,100 LV | 45 | 44 | D+2 |
| Saint Anselm | March 18, 2026 | 1,491 RV | 46 | 43 | D+3 |
| yes. every kid. | January 29, 2026 | 563 LV | 45 | 41 | D+4 |
| University of New Hampshire | January 19, 2026 | 2,038 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| Praecones Analytica | December 28, 2025 | 603 RV | 42 | 36 | D+7 |
| Saint Anselm | November 19, 2025 | 2,112 RV | 44 | 41 | D+3 |
| co/efficient | October 13, 2025 | 1,034 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas | DEM | $15.4M | $4.3M |
| John E Sununu | REP | $4.2M | $3.1M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.