New Hampshire — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Chris Pappas
75%
Republican
John E. Sununu
25%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+6.0
- 80% range
- R+5.4 to D+17.4
- Partisan lean
- D+4.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.37×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- D+4.5
- Fundamentals
- D+11.7
- Blended
- D+6.6
- Similar-race shift
- −1.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 5
- Most recent
- June 25, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.1%
- Republican
- 42.6%
- Undecided / other
- 10.3%
- Spread between polls
- 1.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+4.3
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.1
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+12.8