Virginia 2nd District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Elaine Luria
55%
Republican
Jen Kiggans
45%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+1.1
- 80% range
- R+9.9 to D+12.0
- Partisan lean
- D+0.7
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.59%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.27×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+3.8
- Fundamentals
- D+2.2
- Blended
- D+1.6
- Similar-race shift
- −0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 6.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 13, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.1%
- Republican
- 48.9%
- Undecided / other
- 6.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+0.7
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.3
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+2.8