Florida 9th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+3.8
- 80% range
- R+15.4 to D+7.7
- Partisan lean
- R+14.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.74%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+3.6
- Blended
- R+3.6
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+14.8
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- +1.9
- Candidate experience
- +0.6
- Fundraising
- +2.9
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+4.6
- 2024 margin
- R+17.9
- 2020 margin
- R+6.8
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+11.1
- Votes cast, 2024
- 375,543
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 606,265
- Median age
- 50.8
- Median household income
- $64,000
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 28%
- White
- 49%
- Black
- 11%
- Hispanic
- 36%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Soto | DEM | $2.2M | $1.2M |
| Dan Green | REP | $1.3M | $363k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.