Maryland — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Wes Moore
99.6%
Republican
Dan Cox
0.4%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+27.5
- 80% range
- D+15.3 to D+39.6
- Partisan lean
- D+31.0
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.49×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
89%
Polls 11%Fundamentals 89%
- Polling average
- D+23.2
- Fundamentals
- D+28.6
- Blended
- D+28.0
- Similar-race shift
- −2.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 5.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- August 3, 2026
- Democrat
- 56.1%
- Republican
- 32.9%
- Undecided / other
- 11.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+31.0
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+30.9