Maryland — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Wes Moore
99.9%
Republican
Dan Cox
0.1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+29.8
- 80% range
- D+19.0 to D+40.5
- Partisan lean
- D+31.0
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.63×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
24%76%
Polls 24%Fundamentals 76%
- Polling average
- D+29.9
- Fundamentals
- D+29.9
- Blended
- D+29.9
- Similar-race shift
- −2.2
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- September 27, 2026
- Democrat
- 54.3%
- Republican
- 24.3%
- Undecided / other
- 18.6%
- Spread between polls
- 1.6 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+31.0
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+32.1
The polls behind this number2 most recent of 2 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland Baltimore County Institute of Politics | September 27, 2026 | 776 LV | 54 | 24 | D+30 |
| Zenith ResearchDEM | August 3, 2026 | 800 LV | 58 | 31 | D+27 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.