Nevada — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Aaron Ford
46%
Republican
Joe Lombardo
54%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+0.8
- 80% range
- R+10.9 to D+9.2
- Partisan lean
- R+1.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.47×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
46%54%
Polls 46%Fundamentals 54%
- Polling average
- D+0.1
- Fundamentals
- R+1.3
- Blended
- R+0.7
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 6
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- September 26, 2026
- Democrat
- 39.6%
- Republican
- 39.6%
- Undecided / other
- 15.5%
- Spread between polls
- 1.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+1.4
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+0.9
The polls behind this number6 most recent of 6 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | September 26, 2026 | 800 RV | 37 | 38 | R+1 |
| Emerson College | September 8, 2026 | 680 LV | 44 | 42 | D+2 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | March 13, 2026 | 845 RV | 38 | 39 | R+1 |
| Hart Research AssociatesDEM | February 17, 2026 | 800 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 |
| Emerson College | November 18, 2025 | 800 RV | 41 | 41 | D+0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 13, 2025 | 766 RV | 37 | 40 | R+3 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.