Nevada — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Aaron Ford
39%
Republican
Joe Lombardo
61%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+2.8
- 80% range
- R+16.8 to D+11.2
- Partisan lean
- R+1.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.82×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
35%65%
Polls 35%Fundamentals 65%
- Polling average
- R+1.6
- Fundamentals
- R+2.6
- Blended
- R+2.3
- Similar-race shift
- −0.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 4
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- March 13, 2026
- Democrat
- 38.5%
- Republican
- 40.1%
- Undecided / other
- 21.4%
- Spread between polls
- 1.9 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+1.4
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+2.2