New York 17th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Cait Conley
47%
Republican
Mike Lawler
53%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+0.7
- 80% range
- R+10.7 to D+9.3
- Partisan lean
- D+3.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.52%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.10×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
20%80%
Polls 20%Fundamentals 80%
- Polling average
- R+4.7
- Fundamentals
- D+4.9
- Blended
- R+0.1
- Similar-race shift
- −1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 9.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- July 22, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.2%
- Republican
- 49.9%
- Undecided / other
- 4.9%
- Spread between polls
- 2.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+3.3
- Elasticity
- 1.14
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.3
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+6.1