Arkansas 3rd District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- R+20.0
- 80% range
- R+31.5 to R+8.5
- Partisan lean
- R+25.1
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+19.8
- Blended
- R+19.8
- Similar-race shift
- +2.2
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+25.1
- Elasticity
- 0.90
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+22.1
- 2024 margin
- R+25.8
- 2020 margin
- R+24.1
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+1.7
- Votes cast, 2024
- 316,568
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 566,367
- Median age
- 46.1
- Median household income
- $67,500
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 31%
- White
- 72%
- Black
- 4%
- Hispanic
- 14%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen A The Hon Womack | REP | $1.9M | $2.4M |
| Robb Ryerse | DEM | $121k | $6k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.