Nebraska 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Christopher Backemeyer
17%
Republican
Mike Flood
83%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+8.5
- 80% range
- R+20.3 to D+3.2
- Partisan lean
- R+12.4
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.49%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.42×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
18%82%
Polls 18%Fundamentals 82%
- Polling average
- R+3.3
- Fundamentals
- R+9.9
- Blended
- R+7.9
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 6.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- May 19, 2026
- Democrat
- 41.6%
- Republican
- 44.9%
- Undecided / other
- 13.6%
- Spread between polls
- 2.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+12.4
- Elasticity
- 0.91
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.8
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+11.1