Wisconsin — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
David Crowley
70%
Republican
Tom Tiffany
30%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+3.5
- 80% range
- R+5.2 to D+12.2
- Partisan lean
- R+0.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.15×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
60%40%
Polls 60%Fundamentals 40%
- Polling average
- D+2.6
- Fundamentals
- D+5.3
- Blended
- D+3.7
- Similar-race shift
- +0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 9
- Distinct pollsters
- 6
- Most recent
- October 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.6%
- Republican
- 45.0%
- Undecided / other
- 7.4%
- Spread between polls
- 1.6 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+0.2
- Elasticity
- 0.90
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+5.0
The polls behind this number11 most recent of 9 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A ResearchDEM | October 1, 2026 | 662 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
| Marquette University Law School | September 23, 2026 | 692 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 |
| Marquette University Law School | August 20, 2026 | 738 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
| Marquette University Law School | August 20, 2026 | 891 RV | 44 | 44 | D+0 |
| TIPP InsightsREP | August 18, 2026 | 1,119 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 |
| TIPP InsightsREP | August 18, 2026 | 1,434 RV | 43 | 41 | D+2 |
| Platform Communications | August 13, 2026 | 500 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| GBAO StrategiesDEM | August 3, 2026 | 800 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
| RMG Research | July 24, 2026 | 800 RV | 46 | 43 | D+3 |
| TIPP InsightsREP | March 19, 2026 | 1,175 LV | 42 | 41 | D+1 |
| TIPP InsightsREP | March 19, 2026 | 1,495 RV | 39 | 38 | D+1 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.