Michigan 10th District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Christina Hines
52%
Republican
Michael Bouchard Jr.
48%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+0.5
- 80% range
- R+14.6 to D+15.7
- Partisan lean
- R+4.9
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.06%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+1.1
- Blended
- D+1.1
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+4.9
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.3
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- Even