Texas 38th District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+15.3
- 80% range
- R+27.8 to R+2.7
- Partisan lean
- R+20.2
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.11%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+15.1
- Blended
- R+15.1
- Similar-race shift
- +0.1
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+20.2
- Elasticity
- 0.95
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+15.2
- 2024 margin
- R+21.3
- 2020 margin
- R+18.1
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+3.2
- Votes cast, 2024
- 354,315
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 570,722
- Median age
- 46.7
- Median household income
- $103,200
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 50%
- White
- 52%
- Black
- 11%
- Hispanic
- 24%
- Asian
- 12%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Bonck | REP | $1.6M | $89k |
| Marvalette Hunter | DEM | $137k | $0 |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.