Iowa 3rd District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- D+3.6
- 80% range
- R+7.9 to D+15.2
- Partisan lean
- R+3.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.38%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+3.8
- Blended
- D+3.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.4
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+3.1
- Elasticity
- 0.97
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.7
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+3.4
- 2024 margin
- R+4.5
- 2020 margin
- R+0.3
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+4.1
- Votes cast, 2024
- 424,026
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 600,958
- Median age
- 47.5
- Median household income
- $76,300
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 35%
- White
- 82%
- Black
- 5%
- Hispanic
- 7%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott | DEM | $5.3M | $3.9M |
| Zach Nunn | REP | $4.9M | $3.6M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.