Kentucky 5th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- R+58.5
- 80% range
- R+70.1 to R+47.0
- Partisan lean
- R+63.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+58.3
- Blended
- R+58.3
- Similar-race shift
- +2.6
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+63.2
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −2.3
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+61.0
- 2024 margin
- R+64.7
- 2020 margin
- R+60.1
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+4.6
- Votes cast, 2024
- 316,791
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 585,793
- Median age
- 50.8
- Median household income
- $43,500
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 15%
- White
- 94%
- Black
- 2%
- Hispanic
- 1%
- Asian
- 1%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Dallas Rogers | REP | $850k | $875k |
| Ned Pillersdorf | DEM | $182k | $91k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.