Alabama — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Doug Jones
5%
Republican
Tommy Tuberville
95%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+13.0
- 80% range
- R+23.2 to R+2.9
- Partisan lean
- R+29.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.49×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
36%65%
Polls 36%Fundamentals 65%
- Polling average
- R+9.9
- Fundamentals
- R+14.4
- Blended
- R+12.8
- Similar-race shift
- +1.6
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- September 25, 2026
- Democrat
- 38.8%
- Republican
- 48.7%
- Undecided / other
- 12.5%
- Spread between polls
- 0.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+29.3
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+16.0
The polls behind this number3 most recent of 3 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG ResearchREP | September 25, 2026 | 800 RV | 37 | 50 | R+13 |
| yes. every kid. | July 11, 2026 | 601 LV | 41 | 49 | R+8 |
| CygnalREP | November 13, 2025 | 605 LV | 34 | 53 | R+19 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.