Alabama — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Doug Jones
7%
Republican
Tommy Tuberville
93%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+13.3
- 80% range
- R+24.8 to R+1.8
- Partisan lean
- R+29.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.36×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
22%78%
Polls 22%Fundamentals 78%
- Polling average
- R+8.0
- Fundamentals
- R+16.6
- Blended
- R+12.7
- Similar-race shift
- +0.6
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 8.7 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- July 11, 2026
- Democrat
- 41.0%
- Republican
- 49.0%
- Undecided / other
- 10.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+29.3
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+17.3