Missouri 3rd District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+15.0
- 80% range
- R+26.5 to R+3.5
- Partisan lean
- R+19.6
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.09%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+14.8
- Blended
- R+14.8
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+19.6
- Elasticity
- 0.90
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.5
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+15.8
- 2024 margin
- R+20.3
- 2020 margin
- R+18.8
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+1.5
- Votes cast, 2024
- 406,941
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 594,774
- Median age
- 47.9
- Median household income
- $83,200
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 37%
- White
- 84%
- Black
- 6%
- Hispanic
- 3%
- Asian
- 3%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert For Onder | REP | $950k | $471k |
| Bethany Mann | DEM | $43k | $3k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.