Oklahoma — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Cyndi Munson
8%
Republican
Gentner Drummond
92%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+13.7
- 80% range
- R+26.3 to R+1.2
- Partisan lean
- R+34.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+13.5
- Blended
- R+13.5
- Similar-race shift
- +2.6
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+34.4
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.6
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+16.1