Colorado — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Phil Weiser
87%
Republican
Victor Marx
13%
Independent
Greg Lopez
not rated
Greg Lopez is on the general-election ballot. No public poll has included this candidate, so the model has nothing to estimate a separate probability from and the two-party figures above do not account for them. That is a gap in the available polling, not a judgement about the candidacy.
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+11.0
- 80% range
- R+1.5 to D+23.5
- Partisan lean
- D+12.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+11.2
- Blended
- D+11.2
- Similar-race shift
- −2.1
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+12.3
- Elasticity
- 0.93
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+13.3