New Mexico — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Deb Haaland
78%
Republican
Gregg Hull
22%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+10.3
- 80% range
- R+7.2 to D+27.7
- Partisan lean
- D+7.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 3.00×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
88%
Polls 12%Fundamentals 88%
- Polling average
- D+17.0
- Fundamentals
- D+9.6
- Blended
- D+10.5
- Similar-race shift
- −1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- August 7, 2026
- Democrat
- 41.0%
- Republican
- 24.0%
- Undecided / other
- 35.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+7.7
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+10.7
The polls behind this number1 most recent of 1 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSP Research | August 7, 2026 | 800 RV | 41 | 24 | D+17 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.