Massachusetts 6th District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
- Projected margin
- D+32.7
- 80% range
- D+20.2 to D+45.3
- Partisan lean
- D+23.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+32.9
- Blended
- D+32.9
- Similar-race shift
- −2.4
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+23.2
- Elasticity
- 1.06
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.6
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+35.3
- 2024 margin
- D+21.1
- 2020 margin
- D+28.1
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+7.0
- Votes cast, 2024
- 433,167
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 624,046
- Median age
- 51.8
- Median household income
- $110,500
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 49%
- White
- 80%
- Black
- 4%
- Hispanic
- 9%
- Asian
- 5%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Moulton | DEM | $6.2M | $1.8M |
| Micah Q. Jones | REP | $449k | $189k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.