Pennsylvania — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Josh Shapiro
99%
Republican
Stacy Garrity
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+17.3
- 80% range
- D+7.7 to D+26.9
- Partisan lean
- R+0.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.37×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
66%34%
Polls 66%Fundamentals 34%
- Polling average
- D+19.5
- Fundamentals
- D+8.2
- Blended
- D+17.5
- Similar-race shift
- −1.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 11.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 10
- Distinct pollsters
- 5
- Most recent
- October 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 53.3%
- Republican
- 33.9%
- Undecided / other
- 11.8%
- Spread between polls
- 3.4 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+0.7
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+9.7
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 10 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research | October 1, 2026 | 630 LV | 53 | 34 | D+19 |
| Bravo Group | September 22, 2026 | 624 RV | 55 | 28 | D+27 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | September 22, 2026 | 615 LV | 58 | 38 | D+20 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | August 23, 2026 | 501 RV | 50 | 25 | D+25 |
| Bravo Group | August 22, 2026 | 711 LV | 56 | 25 | D+31 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | August 21, 2026 | 760 RV | 54 | 37 | D+17 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | August 21, 2026 | 760 LV | 55 | 39 | D+16 |
| National Public AffairsREP | July 30, 2026 | 600 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 |
| Bravo Group | July 24, 2026 | 630 LV | 53 | 28 | D+25 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | June 14, 2026 | 546 RV | 50 | 28 | D+22 |
| MAD Global Strategy | June 11, 2026 | 600 LV | 48 | 31 | D+17 |
| Bravo Group | May 24, 2026 | 684 LV | 53 | 29 | D+24 |
| Susquehanna Polling & ResearchREP | March 29, 2026 | 700 LV | 58 | 36 | D+22 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 1, 2026 | 834 RV | 48 | 28 | D+20 |
| Quinnipiac University | February 23, 2026 | 836 RV | 55 | 37 | D+18 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.