Pennsylvania — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Josh Shapiro
94%
Republican
Stacy Garrity
6%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+16.2
- 80% range
- D+2.8 to D+29.6
- Partisan lean
- R+0.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.72×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
56%45%
Polls 56%Fundamentals 45%
- Polling average
- D+18.9
- Fundamentals
- D+8.1
- Blended
- D+16.8
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 10.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 6
- Most recent
- July 30, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.9%
- Republican
- 31.9%
- Undecided / other
- 17.2%
- Spread between polls
- 5.2 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+0.7
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+8.4