Georgia — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Jon Ossoff
96%
Republican
Mike Collins
4%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+11.6
- 80% range
- D+3.3 to D+19.9
- Partisan lean
- R+1.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.05×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
58%42%
Polls 58%Fundamentals 42%
- Polling average
- D+9.8
- Fundamentals
- D+14.6
- Blended
- D+11.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- October 3, 2026
- Democrat
- 53.1%
- Republican
- 43.3%
- Undecided / other
- 3.6%
- Spread between polls
- 1.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+1.3
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- +4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.6
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+13.8
The polls behind this number14 most recent of 8 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | October 3, 2026 | 600 LV | 55 | 45 | D+10 |
| Big Data Poll | September 23, 2026 | 678 LV | 55 | 45 | D+11 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 23, 2026 | 1,200 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | August 17, 2026 | 800 LV | 50 | 43 | D+8 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | July 16, 2026 | 1,060 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 |
| Wick | June 30, 2026 | 1,175 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | June 27, 2026 | 1,002 RV | 56 | 43 | D+13 |
| Echelon Insights | April 9, 2026 | 407 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 |
| Emerson College | March 2, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 48 | 43 | D+4 |
| Quantus Insights | September 12, 2025 | 624 RV | 38 | 38 | D+0 |
| TIPP InsightsREP | August 1, 2025 | 2,395 LV | 45 | 44 | D+1 |
| CygnalDEM | May 17, 2025 | 800 RV | 46 | 43 | D+3 |
| Trafalgar GroupREP | April 27, 2025 | 1,426 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| WPA IntelligenceREP | January 15, 2025 | 500 LV | 44 | 34 | D+10 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jonathan Ossoff | DEM | $77.3M | $42.6M |
| Michael A Collins | REP | $7.4M | $2.1M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.