Maine — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Troy Jackson
77%
Republican
Susan Collins
23%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+4.7
- 80% range
- R+3.7 to D+13.1
- Partisan lean
- D+8.0
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.06×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
64%36%
Polls 64%Fundamentals 36%
- Polling average
- D+3.1
- Fundamentals
- D+9.6
- Blended
- D+4.9
- Similar-race shift
- −1.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 6.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 13
- Distinct pollsters
- 12
- Most recent
- October 5, 2026
- Democrat
- 49.4%
- Republican
- 46.3%
- Undecided / other
- 4.3%
- Spread between polls
- 2.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+8.0
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- −0.6
- Fundraising
- +1.4
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+11.0
The polls behind this number13 most recent of 13 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | October 5, 2026 | 800 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| Marist University | October 4, 2026 | 1,505 RV | 51 | 47 | D+4 |
| Wedgewood Polls | October 1, 2026 | 400 LV | 52 | 48 | D+4 |
| co/efficient | September 30, 2026 | 1,240 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | September 22, 2026 | 619 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | September 22, 2026 | 982 LV | 50 | 47 | D+3 |
| University of New Hampshire | September 21, 2026 | 1,312 LV | 51 | 47 | D+4 |
| Quantus Insights | September 15, 2026 | 621 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | September 14, 2026 | 650 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| YouGov | September 8, 2026 | 1,335 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | August 10, 2026 | 1,000 RV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
| Hart Research AssociatesDEM | August 1, 2026 | 802 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| University of New Hampshire | July 20, 2026 | 1,178 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Platner | DEM | $21.1M | $1.8M |
| Susan M. Collins | REP | $16.2M | $11.0M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.