Alaska 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Bill Hill is on the general-election ballot. No public poll has included this candidate, so the model has nothing to estimate a separate probability from and the two-party figures above do not account for them. That is a gap in the available polling, not a judgement about the candidacy.
- Projected margin
- R+9.1
- 80% range
- R+18.0 to R+0.4
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.12%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.17×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- R+12.0
- Fundamentals
- R+7.5
- Blended
- R+8.9
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.5 pts
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- June 29, 2026
- Democrat
- 39.0%
- Republican
- 51.0%
- Undecided / other
- 10.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.1 pts
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Elasticity
- 0.95
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- −0.5
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+8.8
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 29, 2026 | 593 LV | 39 | 51 | R+12 |
| Public Policy PollingDEM | February 12, 2026 | 600 LV | 39 | 46 | R+7 |
| Data for ProgressDEM | October 23, 2025 | 823 RV | 37 | 48 | R+11 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
- 2024 margin
- R+13.8
- 2020 margin
- R+10.5
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+3.3
- Votes cast, 2024
- 337,780
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 554,003
- Median age
- 45.6
- Median household income
- $87,700
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 31%
- White
- 61%
- Black
- 4%
- Hispanic
- 6%
- Asian
- 8%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.