Missouri 5th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+5.8
- 80% range
- R+17.3 to D+5.7
- Partisan lean
- R+17.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.58%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+5.6
- Blended
- R+5.6
- Similar-race shift
- +1.1
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+17.3
- Elasticity
- 0.97
- Incumbency
- +1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+6.8
- 2024 margin
- R+18.6
- 2020 margin
- R+14.6
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+4.1
- Votes cast, 2024
- 332,891
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 588,634
- Median age
- 49.1
- Median household income
- $58,800
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 23%
- White
- 70%
- Black
- 18%
- Hispanic
- 7%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Cleaver Ii | DEM | $1.3M | $1.1M |
| Richard Brattin | REP | $332k | $223k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.