Missouri 5th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Emanuel Cleaver
24%
Republican
Rick Brattin
76%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+7.4
- 80% range
- R+21.3 to D+6.4
- Partisan lean
- R+17.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.64%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+6.9
- Blended
- R+6.9
- Similar-race shift
- +1.6
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+17.3
- Elasticity
- 0.97
- Incumbency
- +1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.1
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+8.4