Texas 22nd District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+15.4
- 80% range
- R+27.9 to R+2.9
- Partisan lean
- R+21.0
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.10%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+15.2
- Blended
- R+15.2
- Similar-race shift
- +0.7
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+21.0
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.8
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+15.8
- 2024 margin
- R+22.7
- 2020 margin
- R+17.5
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+5.1
- Votes cast, 2024
- 335,812
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 561,423
- Median age
- 46.7
- Median household income
- $103,500
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 44%
- White
- 46%
- Black
- 11%
- Hispanic
- 27%
- Asian
- 14%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trever Nehls | REP | $206k | $23k |
| Marquette Greene-scott | DEM | $54k | $127 |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.