Colorado 8th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- D+4.7
- 80% range
- R+6.9 to D+16.2
- Partisan lean
- D+0.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.38%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+4.9
- Blended
- D+4.9
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+0.1
- Elasticity
- 1.05
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.4
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+5.2
- 2024 margin
- R+1.9
- 2020 margin
- D+4.7
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+6.6
- Votes cast, 2024
- 344,500
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 535,998
- Median age
- 44.3
- Median household income
- $87,300
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 28%
- White
- 56%
- Black
- 3%
- Hispanic
- 35%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Gabriel Joseph Evans | REP | $5.4M | $3.9M |
| Manny Rutinel | DEM | $4.3M | $601k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.