California — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Xavier Becerra
99.8%
Republican
Steve Hilton
0.2%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+23.7
- 80% range
- D+14.4 to D+33.1
- Partisan lean
- D+23.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.31×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- D+26.1
- Fundamentals
- D+21.8
- Blended
- D+24.0
- Similar-race shift
- −2.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 5
- Distinct pollsters
- 4
- Most recent
- September 20, 2026
- Democrat
- 58.0%
- Republican
- 32.0%
- Undecided / other
- 10.0%
- Spread between polls
- 2.8 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+23.4
- Elasticity
- 1.12
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+24.0
The polls behind this number5 most recent of 5 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | September 20, 2026 | 742 LV | 55 | 33 | D+22 |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | September 20, 2026 | 4,512 LV | 58 | 33 | D+25 |
| University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot | September 16, 2026 | 1,983 LV | 54 | 36 | D+18 |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | August 9, 2026 | 2,310 LV | 55 | 37 | D+18 |
| Kreate Strategies | June 17, 2026 | 900 LV | 58 | 33 | D+25 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.