Michigan — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Jocelyn Benson
82%
Republican
John James
18%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+6.2
- 80% range
- R+2.5 to D+14.9
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.15×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
66%34%
Polls 66%Fundamentals 34%
- Polling average
- D+7.3
- Fundamentals
- D+4.7
- Blended
- D+6.4
- Similar-race shift
- −0.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 16
- Distinct pollsters
- 13
- Most recent
- October 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 49.3%
- Republican
- 42.0%
- Undecided / other
- 7.5%
- Spread between polls
- 3.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+5.1
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 16 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | October 27, 2026 | 800 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| Z to A ResearchDEM | October 1, 2026 | 483 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | September 28, 2026 | 1,028 LV | 54 | 45 | D+9 |
| co/efficient | September 23, 2026 | 843 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | September 22, 2026 | 605 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research | September 21, 2026 | 600 LV | 45 | 38 | D+7 |
| Suffolk University | September 20, 2026 | 500 LV | 51 | 34 | D+17 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | September 14, 2026 | 803 LV | 53 | 41 | D+12 |
| Emerson College | September 14, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 |
| EPIC-MRA | August 28, 2026 | 600 LV | 45 | 41 | D+4 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | August 20, 2026 | 913 RV | 49 | 39 | D+10 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | August 20, 2026 | 779 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | August 11, 2026 | 877 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | August 10, 2026 | 1,006 RV | 52 | 47 | D+5 |
| EPIC-MRA | July 31, 2026 | 600 LV | 47 | 38 | D+9 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.