Michigan 11th District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
- Projected margin
- D+24.7
- 80% range
- D+12.2 to D+37.2
- Partisan lean
- D+17.7
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.10%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+24.9
- Blended
- D+24.9
- Similar-race shift
- −2.5
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+17.7
- Elasticity
- 0.96
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.3
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+27.4
- 2024 margin
- D+16.4
- 2020 margin
- D+20.1
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+3.7
- Votes cast, 2024
- 460,402
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 624,065
- Median age
- 49.2
- Median household income
- $88,900
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 50%
- White
- 71%
- Black
- 14%
- Hispanic
- 4%
- Asian
- 9%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Moss | DEM | $1.5M | $353k |
| Ethan D Baker | REP | $142k | $121k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.