Massachusetts 4th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- D+37.4
- 80% range
- D+25.9 to D+49.0
- Partisan lean
- D+22.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+37.6
- Blended
- D+37.6
- Similar-race shift
- −2.4
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+22.7
- Elasticity
- 1.12
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+40.0
- 2024 margin
- D+20.1
- 2020 margin
- D+29.0
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+8.9
- Votes cast, 2024
- 406,811
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 615,677
- Median age
- 50.2
- Median household income
- $109,200
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 49%
- White
- 81%
- Black
- 5%
- Hispanic
- 5%
- Asian
- 7%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Auchincloss | DEM | $3.6M | $7.3M |
| Thomas Phd Stalcup | REP | $26k | $1k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.