Nevada 2nd District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
- Projected margin
- R+6.4
- 80% range
- R+18.9 to D+6.1
- Partisan lean
- R+13.2
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.55%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+6.2
- Blended
- R+6.2
- Similar-race shift
- +0.8
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+13.2
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.7
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+7.0
- 2024 margin
- R+14.3
- 2020 margin
- R+11.3
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+2.9
- Votes cast, 2024
- 420,931
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 611,030
- Median age
- 49.7
- Median household income
- $79,600
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 28%
- White
- 67%
- Black
- 3%
- Hispanic
- 20%
- Asian
- 6%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Flippo | REP | $2.3M | $118k |
| Teresa Benitez-thompson | DEM | $257k | $141k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.