Delaware 1st District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Sarah McBride
99%
Republican
Donyale Hall
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+24.8
- 80% range
- D+13.3 to D+36.4
- Partisan lean
- D+16.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.07%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+25.1
- Blended
- D+25.1
- Similar-race shift
- −1.5
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+16.3
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+26.5
How it voted for presidenttwo-party
- 2024 margin
- D+14.8
- 2020 margin
- D+19.3
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+4.4
- Votes cast, 2024
- 510,775
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
Who lives hereCensus ACS
- Population
- 783,543
- Median age
- 51.4
- Median household income
- $79,700
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 34%
- White
- 62%
- Black
- 23%
- Hispanic
- 9%
- Asian
- 5%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.