Massachusetts — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Maura Healey
99%
Republican
Mike Minogue
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+23.1
- 80% range
- D+10.6 to D+35.8
- Partisan lean
- D+28.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.58×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
39%61%
Polls 39%Fundamentals 61%
- Polling average
- D+21.1
- Fundamentals
- D+29.6
- Blended
- D+23.8
- Similar-race shift
- −2.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 8.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 5
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- June 23, 2026
- Democrat
- 52.8%
- Republican
- 31.7%
- Undecided / other
- 15.6%
- Spread between polls
- 2.4 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+28.3
- Elasticity
- 1.10
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.3
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+31.6