Arizona 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
- Projected margin
- D+4.2
- 80% range
- R+7.6 to D+15.9
- Partisan lean
- R+1.6
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.35%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.86×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- D+2.8
- Fundamentals
- D+4.5
- Blended
- D+4.4
- Similar-race shift
- −1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.8 pts
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- October 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 44.4%
- Republican
- 41.6%
- Undecided / other
- 14.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
- Partisan lean
- R+1.6
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.2
- Fundraising
- −0.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+5.6
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FirstStrategic | October 1, 2026 | 400 LV | 44 | 42 | D+3 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
- 2024 margin
- R+3.1
- 2020 margin
- D+1.5
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+4.6
- Votes cast, 2024
- 450,734
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 650,548
- Median age
- 51.2
- Median household income
- $92,300
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 51%
- White
- 74%
- Black
- 4%
- Hispanic
- 14%
- Asian
- 5%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas James Feely | REP | $2.5M | $794k |
| Amish Dr. Shah | DEM | $1.8M | $402k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.