Montana — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Alani Bankhead
<0.1%
Republican
Kurt Alme
98%
Three-way contestsimulated by plurality, not by margin
Seth Bodnar is polling well enough that this race is simulated as a three-way plurality contest — the winner is whoever leads, not whoever wins the two-party margin. Chance of taking the seat outright: 2%.
17%48%27%
Alani BankheadKurt AlmeSeth BodnarUndecided
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+31.9
- 80% range
- R+41.5 to R+22.4
- Partisan lean
- R+19.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.30×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
63%37%
Polls 63%Fundamentals 37%
- Polling average
- R+31.3
- Fundamentals
- R+15.3
- Blended
- R+29.1
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 16.0 pts
PollingDRI matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 6
- Most recent
- August 4, 2026
- Democrat
- 16.5%
- Republican
- 47.8%
- Independent
- 26.8%
- Undecided / other
- 5.5%
- Spread between polls
- 5.9 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+19.3
- Elasticity
- 0.96
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.2
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+16.5