Montana — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Seth Bodnar is polling well enough that this race is simulated as a three-way plurality contest — the winner is whoever leads, not whoever wins the two-party margin. Chance of taking the seat outright: 1%.
- Projected margin
- R+24.4
- 80% range
- R+32.5 to R+16.2
- Partisan lean
- R+19.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.28×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- R+24.1
- Fundamentals
- R+12.4
- Blended
- R+22.1
- Similar-race shift
- +2.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 11.7 pts
- Polls in window
- 9
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- September 24, 2026
- Democrat
- 20.4%
- Republican
- 44.6%
- Independent
- 25.6%
- Undecided / other
- 8.4%
- Spread between polls
- 3.8 pts
- Partisan lean
- R+19.3
- Elasticity
- 0.96
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+14.5
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling | September 24, 2026 | 604 LV | 19 | 45 | R+26 |
| Quantus Insights | September 15, 2026 | 625 LV | 23 | 44 | R+21 |
| Hart Research Associates | August 4, 2026 | 800 LV | 15 | 45 | R+30 |
| Tavern Research | July 27, 2026 | 517 LV | 41 | 59 | R+18 |
| Tavern Research | July 27, 2026 | 517 LV | 22 | 49 | R+27 |
| Tavern Research | July 27, 2026 | 517 LV | 24 | 49 | R+25 |
| Tavern Research | July 27, 2026 | 517 LV | 36 | 56 | R+20 |
| GQR | July 26, 2026 | 500 LV | 22 | 41 | R+19 |
| GQR | July 26, 2026 | 500 LV | 40 | 44 | R+4 |
| GQR | July 26, 2026 | 500 LV | 44 | 52 | R+8 |
| The Bullfinch Group | July 16, 2026 | 793 LV | 22 | 36 | R+14 |
| GrayHouseREP | June 24, 2026 | 500 LV | 25 | 41 | R+16 |
| Hart Research AssociatesDEM | June 24, 2026 | 800 LV | 43 | 49 | R+6 |
| Tavern Research | June 19, 2026 | 400 LV | 27 | 49 | R+22 |
| Tavern ResearchDEM | June 19, 2026 | 400 LV | 44 | 56 | R+12 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | REP | $2.0M | $1.5M |
| Reilly Neill | DEM | $295k | $24k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.