New Jersey 12th District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
- Projected margin
- D+39.3
- 80% range
- D+26.8 to D+51.8
- Partisan lean
- D+26.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+39.5
- Blended
- D+39.5
- Similar-race shift
- −2.4
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+26.7
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+41.9
- 2024 margin
- D+23.6
- 2020 margin
- D+34.8
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+11.2
- Votes cast, 2024
- 330,374
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 604,883
- Median age
- 49.2
- Median household income
- $105,500
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 48%
- White
- 44%
- Black
- 18%
- Hispanic
- 19%
- Asian
- 19%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamawy | DEM | $1.5M | $92k |
| Gregg Mele | REP | $79k | $3k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.