Oklahoma — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Jasmine Thomas
2%
Republican
Kevin Hern
98%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+26.4
- 80% range
- R+41.5 to R+11.3
- Partisan lean
- R+34.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+25.8
- Blended
- R+25.8
- Similar-race shift
- +1.9
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+34.4
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- −0.3
- Fundraising
- −2.5
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+27.7