Oklahoma — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Jasmine Thomas
1%
Republican
Kevin Hern
99%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+23.4
- 80% range
- R+35.9 to R+10.9
- Partisan lean
- R+34.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+23.2
- Blended
- R+23.2
- Similar-race shift
- +2.6
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+34.4
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- −0.3
- Fundraising
- −2.3
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+25.8
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hern | REP | $10.0M | $2.5M |
| Jim Priest | DEM | $378k | $56k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.