Texas 21st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+14.7
- 80% range
- R+27.2 to R+2.2
- Partisan lean
- R+20.5
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.12%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+14.5
- Blended
- R+14.5
- Similar-race shift
- +1.1
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+20.5
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −2.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+15.6
- 2024 margin
- R+22.1
- 2020 margin
- R+17.0
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+5.1
- Votes cast, 2024
- 414,749
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 612,155
- Median age
- 47.6
- Median household income
- $79,000
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 43%
- White
- 57%
- Black
- 5%
- Hispanic
- 32%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Charles Teixeira | REP | $3.9M | $382k |
| Kristin A Dr. Hook | DEM | $244k | $104k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.