Alaska — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · ranked-choice voting
Democrat
Tom Begich
40%
Republican
Bernadette Wilson
60%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+1.7
- 80% range
- R+10.5 to D+7.1
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.17×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
23%77%
Polls 23%Fundamentals 77%
- Polling average
- D+1.8
- Fundamentals
- R+2.5
- Blended
- R+1.5
- Similar-race shift
- +0.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.9%
- Republican
- 49.1%
- Undecided / other
- 0.0%
- Spread between polls
- 2.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Elasticity
- 0.95
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.2
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+3.3
The polls behind this number3 most recent of 3 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | July 1, 2026 | 1,528 RV | 51 | 49 | D+2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | April 19, 2026 | 1,923 LV | 54 | 46 | D+8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | April 19, 2026 | — LV | 54 | 46 | D+8 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.