Hawaii — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Josh Green
99.7%
Republican
Gary Cordery
0.3%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+27.3
- 80% range
- D+15.8 to D+38.8
- Partisan lean
- D+25.5
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+27.5
- Blended
- D+27.5
- Similar-race shift
- −1.8
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+25.5
- Elasticity
- 1.05
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+29.3